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If you have read about this draft, then you have probably read a mock draft. They usually come out every few weeks on each major site, and they usually combine a writer's scouting skills with insider sources to make an educated guess on a particular pick.
This year is particularly wide open, and many mock drafts have players in the top ten that don't appear on other mock drafts, and other players that could appear on the top or the bottom of the first round, depending on who you talk to. So just a few days before the draft, I have taken four major mock drafts: Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel, Baseball America, and Minor League Ball, and took the weighted average of their most recent first round mock draft. The results are as follows:
| Team | Selection |
|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Dansby Swanson |
| Houston Astros | Brendan Rodgers |
| Colorado Rockies | Alex Bregman |
| Texas Rangers | Dillon Tate |
| Houston Astros | Kyle Tucker |
| Minnesota Twins | Tyler Jay |
| Boston Red Sox | Carson Fulmer |
| Chicago White Sox | Daz Cameron |
| Chicago Cubs | Garrett Whitley |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Tyler Stephenson |
| Cincinnati Reds | Trenton Clark |
| Miami Marlins | Ian Happ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Jon Harris |
| Atlanta Braves | Andrew Benintendi |
| Milwaukee Brewers | James Kaprielian |
| New York Yankees | Walker Buehler |
| Cleveland Indians | Kolby Allard |
| San Francisco Giants | Kevin Newman |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Mike Nikorak |
| Oakland Athletics | Phil Bickford |
| Kansas City Royals | Kyle Funkhouser |
| Detroit Tigers | Cornelius Randolph |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Michael Matuella |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Chris Betts |
| Baltimore Orioles | Nathan Kirby |
| Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | Donny Everett |
| Colorado Rockies | Brady Aiken |
| Atlanta Braves | Blake Trahan |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Nick Plummer |
| New York Yankees | Richie Martin |
| San Francisco Giants | Cody Ponce |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Nolan Watson |
| Kansas City Royals | Ke'Bryan Hayes |
| Detroit Tigers | DJ Stewart |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Ashe Russell |
| Baltimore Orioles | Tristson McKenzie |
This is probably interesting for any baseball fan, but I have highlighted here the projected picks for the Yankees. For their first overall pick, Walker Buehler is not a bad choice at all. This right-handed starter from Vanderbilt features a fastball that sits in the low-90's with plus movement, a plus curveball, and an average change.
That's the making of a quality big league starter, and I'd say the floor is relatively higher as a college prospect. He did have issues with elbow soreness earlier in the season and there have been questions about his size as it relates to his durability, but I wouldn't complain with this pick considering the mediocrity of this first round.
The second pick is Richie Martin, and he has been consistently a late first round selection for the past six months, and it seems he'll go around there. Martin is a shortstop out of Florida with the athleticism to stick at the position, and the reason he climbed boards over the past year was due to his possibly plus hit tool and average raw power, and if all of those play, you're looking at a decent defensive shortstop that can hit and hit for power, and that's a unicorn in baseball today. I don't think that's a high probability outcome at all, but I wouldn't complain if they gave him a shot.
As I mentioned before, this is just a weighted average, so changes in all four of these mock drafts will likely shuffle this around. But at least for now, this gives us a good idea of industry consensus as to the most likely first round outcome.
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