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Is Mark Teixeira's home run barrage sustainable?

Mark Teixeira has been a pleasant surprise in the early going. His power is back - something not expected immediately after his wrist surgery in 2013. Can he keep it up?


Questioning a player's power stroke when he has eight career 30+ home run seasons seems petty. But when it's Mark Teixeira, coming off major wrist surgery and a hamstring strain, it's mildly surprising that he's bopped eight dingers in 104 plate appearances. For what it's worth, he's also a notorious slow starter, making this long ball output perhaps even more unexpected. I'm not complaining, of course, but curious to know if Teixeira has been a benefactor of luck in the first month and a half of the season.

With just 108 plate appearances, chances are his 28.6% home run to fly ball ratio won't last, as his career mark sits at 18.2%. And no, he won't continue his torrid 13.5 PA/HR pace, which would equate to about 44 homers in a full 600 PA season. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's been lucky thus far. Those stats aren't predictive, but they might be descriptive of Teixeira's fortune with some confirmation from ESPN's home run tracker.

Date Video Path Pitcher Ballpark Type/ TRUE Impact Due To: # Parks
Luck Dist. Wind Temp. Alt.
4/24/2014 Video View Doubront, Felix Fenway Park JE/L 344 22 -5 0 0
4/27/2014 Video View Richards, Garrett Yankee Stadi... ND 383 1 -2 0 30
4/29/2014 Video View Young, Chris Yankee Stadi... PL 353 -11 -6 0 29
5/2/2014 Video View Peralta, Joel Yankee Stadi... PL 359 2 -1 0 14
5/3/2014 Video View Odorizzi, Jake Yankee Stadi... ND 382 1 0 0 29
5/10/2014 Video View Lohse, Kyle Miller Park JE 369 0 0 1 25
5/11/2014 Video View Rodriguez, Francisco Miller Park PL 400 0 0 0 30
5/14/2014 Video View Montero, Rafael Citi Field PL 403 6 -2 0 29

Of his eight home runs, there have been two no doubters and three with plenty of distance based on the stadium they were hit in. However, the number of parks stat, which determines how many ballparks a batted ball would have been home runs in, gives us a better idea of how legitimate his home runs were, and by the looks of it, there's only one true "cheapie":

Yeah, that has no business being out of any park. The only other round-tripper that would produce a mixed bag around the country was his homer off Joel Peralta on May 2nd. So, has Mark Teixeira had some good fortune? Absolutely, but good power hitters aren't going to hit 400 foot moonshots every time he goes yard. Some are destined to sneak over the wall.

The other six home runs are pretty convincing, leaving the park at virtually every stadium. Clearly, it's not like Teixeira is barely clearing the fences - many of his home runs are not merely products of favorable weather conditions or Yankee Stadium's short porch. If you want to say he only has six "real" home runs, whatever. That's still one every 18 plate appearances, which is quite impressive.

It's been a pleasant surprise to see Teixeira thrive in the batter's box early on. At this point, I think we can go forward and not worry about last year's wrist surgery sapping any of his power. Having concerns about his general health is another thing, as he's already taken one trip on the disabled list this year and almost took another. If he can stay on the field, there's a decent shot that Teixeira pushes 30 home runs this season, something I doubt anyone in the organization was counting on in the preseason.