Pinstripe Alley - Yankees Potential 2015 Free Agent TargetsBig boi dinger enthusiastshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/51961/pinstripe_alley_minimal.png2014-12-02T15:00:02-05:00http://www.pinstripealley.com/rss/stream/69146522014-12-02T15:00:02-05:002014-12-02T15:00:02-05:00The best of the rest – starting pitching
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<figcaption>Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>As we continue to look for the next, next, next best thing on the free agent market, we look toward starting pitching. Of course, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> are likely to target <span>Brandon McCarthy</span>, <span>Jon Lester</span>, and <span>Max Scherzer</span> before many of these guys, but seriously, what if everything all goes wrong and someone swoops in and signs them all? They seem to be very determined to take the players they want only under the terms of their choosing, so it could happen. Get to know these names, just in case:</p>
<p><b>LHP <span>Brett Anderson</span> – </b><i>43.1 IP, 2.91 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 6.02 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 61 GB%, 1.1 WAR</i><br>There are two things we know about <span>Brett Anderson</span>; one, he'll be good, and two, he'll get hurt. It's going to happen. So while it will likely keep his contract down to an affordable rate, the Yankees can't expect him to be a staple in the rotation all year. Perhaps if they go with Anderson to start the year they can hope he makes it through the second half of the season in time for <span>Ivan Nova</span> to return from the disabled list.</p>
<p><b>RHP <span>Aaron Harang</span> – </b><i>204.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 7.09 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 39.4 GB%, 2.5 WAR</i><br>If there was an award for biggest surprise season, Aaron Harang probably would have won it. He's always been a useful innings eater, but this season he reached back to his younger days when he passed the 200-inning plateau for the first time in seven years. The Yankees can't expect to get that kind of production from him again at 37, but in a rotation consisting of <span>Masahiro Tanaka</span>, <span>Michael Pineda</span>, and <span>CC Sabathia</span>, a healthy arm could go a long way.</p>
<p><b>LHP <span>Paul Maholm</span> –</b> <i>70.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.33 K/9 3.57 BB/9, 54.4 GB%, -0.8 WAR</i><br>Maholm has quietly been a very useful starting pitcher for a while now, however when the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> decided to try him as a swingman out of the bullpen last year, it didn't work out too well. If the Yankees bring him on, he should be pitching out of the rotation, and if CC Sabathia is too terrible to be useful, he'll be their sole lefty. With a career ground ball rate of over 50%, Maholm fits perfectly into what the Yankees are trying to build, especially in Yankee Stadium.</p>
<p><b>RHP <span>Carlos Villanueva</span> –</b> <i>77.2 IP, 4.64 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 41.3 GB%, 1.1 WAR</i><br>Villanueva is the quintessential fifth starter-type. He can give you innings, decent peripherals with plenty of ground balls, and will maintain a sub-5.00 ERA. The Yankees could probably fill that in with someone like <span>David Phelps</span> or <span>Bryan Mitchell</span>, but if they trade someone or Sabathia, Tanaka, and Pineda all end up on the DL, it will be useful to have Villanueva around.</p>
<p>It's unlikely that any of these guys will find their way onto the Yankees, but there actually is a greater than 0% chance of it actually happening. Anderson wouldn't be too bad of a signing, as long as they don't expect him to be healthy, but it's pretty clear that the Yankees need to get someone on their wish list so it doesn't come to this.</p>
https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/12/2/7305187/yankees-free-agents-starting-pitcher-brett-anderson-harang-maholmJason Cohen2014-12-01T10:30:03-05:002014-12-01T10:30:03-05:00The best of the rest – position players
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<figcaption>Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Rickie Weeks, Alberto Callaspo, and Mark Reynolds headline the best of the rest free agent position player options for the Yankees</p> <p>You've seen our free agent target posts throughout the month of November, but to bring it all to an end, I'll be summing up the best of the rest on the market. These guys are all long shots, but it's at least worth exploring and discussing, right? RIGHT?? Today we're starting with the position players.</p>
<p><b>SS <span>Clint Barmes</span> - </b><i>116 PA, .245/.328/.294, 7.8 BB%, </i><i>15.5 K%, 79 wRC+, 0.3 WAR<br></i>If the Yankees want to scrape the bottom of the barrel, Clint Barmes is it. He'd be the backup plan to the backup plan's backup plan, but if they want a defense-first shortstop, they're going to ignore <span>Jed Lowrie</span> and <span>Asdrubal Cabrera</span>. A reunion with <span>Stephen Drew</span> seems to make the most sense, however, I don't see them getting into a bidding war for him, or really anyone, and if they can't pull off a trade for either <span>Jimmy Rollins</span> or <span>Alexei Ramirez</span>, Barmes could be the next, next, next best option as he's highly rated in the field. It would end up being an odd platoon between him and <span>Brendan Ryan</span>–Barmes against lefties, Ryan against righties and late-inning replacements–but if he bounces back, Barmes could offer more power from the right side without being a liability in the field. It would be ugly, but it would be something, at least for a few months.</p>
<p>2B/3B <span>Alberto Callaspo</span> - <i>451 PA, .223/.290/.290, 8.9 BB% 11.1 K%, 68 wRC+, -1.1 WAR</i><br>Callaspo was an intriguing player on the trade market a few years ago, but in 2014 he was a disaster. He's never been a great hitter, but he's always been quietly valuable, so at this point, any hope of a multi-year deal has likely disappeared. He's capable of playing two positions the Yankees might end up needing filled, though the metrics don't like him at second base. Even as a pure third baseman, he would allow Martin Prado to stay at second base and could offer an alternative to <span>Alex Rodriguez</span> as the starting third baseman if they don't bring back Chase Headley. Either way, it will be a gamble, but if he bounces back he'll likely be worth whatever modest price tag he'll come attached with.</p>
<p><b>2B <span>Mark Ellis</span> -</b> <i>202 PA, .180/.253/.213, 6.9 BB% 18.8 K%, 31 wRC+, -0.4 WAR</i><br>The <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> had a chance to sign Mark Ellis last year and decided against. Even though they went with <span>Brian Roberts</span>, it's looking like that was still a good decision. At the age of 37, it's clear that his career is winding down, but he's still somewhat of a bounce back candidate, considering he can't really be any worse than he was in 2014. If the Yankees don't find a third baseman, they will move <span>Martin Prado</span> to the hot corner, but if they decide that Rob Refsnyder is not ready to take on the major league job just yet, Ellis could be a one-year, or half-year, stopgap. Ellis is strong in the field, so he'd add that extra value that the Yankees would be looking for.</p>
<p><b>SS <span>Rafael Furcal</span> -</b> <i>Played nine games in 2014<br></i>At this point in his career, Furcal is kind of just a warm body. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, the shortstop has played just nine games between the 2013 and 2014 seasons. If they feel that Refsnyder isn't ready for a full-time position, the Yankees could bring in Furcal as this year's Brian Roberts. Throw him $2 million with some incentives and if he's terrible, or Refsnyder goes on another tear, he's easily cuttable.</p>
<p class="p1">1B/3B <span>Mark Reynolds</span> - <i>433 PA, .196/.287/.394, 22 HR, 10.9 BB% 28.2 K%, 87 wRC+, 1.6 WAR</i><br>The Yankees don't often re-sign players after letting them leave in free agency, but maybe they should when it comes to Mark Reynolds. We know that all he's going to bring is home run power, but as a right-handed corner-infielder, that might be exactly what this team needs. The Yankees would like a backup first baseman and another third baseman and he's likely destined to be healthier than either Alex Rodriguez or <span>Mark Teixeira</span>, so he could end up being very useful over a full season.</p>
<p>2B <span>Rickie Weeks</span> - <i>286 PA, .274/.357/.452, 8 HR, 8.7 BB%, 25.5 K%, 127 wRC+, 1.2 WAR</i><br>If there's one player the Yankees pick up off the scrapheap, Rickie Weeks would be the one that makes the most sense. His strong offensive season will likely give him a legitimate 2015 salary, but after two down years in which he was worth just 0.5 WAR total, he's not really in line for a long-term deal, at least not yet. Weeks could represent a one-year stopgap, depending on what the Yankees decide to do with Refsnyder, and in the meantime the 32-year-old second baseman can regain some goodwill for the free agent market next year. He'd essentially be a more expensive, and hopefully more effective, Brian Roberts. The only hangup is his incredibly bad defense that could make this a no-go for the Yankees.</p>
https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/12/1/7301119/yankees-free-agent-shortstop-second-base-rickie-weeks-alberto-callaspo-mark-reynoldsJason Cohen2014-11-28T15:00:03-05:002014-11-28T15:00:03-05:00NYY Potential Free Agent Target: Jose Fernandez
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Should the Yankees pursue second baseman Jose Fernandez if he is declared a free agent?</p> <p>Cuban second baseman <span>Jose Fernandez</span> has reportedly <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/16/cuban-second-baseman-jose-fernandez-defects/">defected </a>from his home land, though his exact whereabouts are unknown. The 26-year-old is listed at five-foot-ten, 185 pounds, and he is a left-handed hitter. Fernandez played seven seasons in Cuba for the Matanzas in Serie Nacional before he disappeared from the country in early October. There are several steps that need to be taken before he could be considered eligible to sign with a team, but he is likely to draw a lot of interest around the league when that time comes.</p>
<p>He has had several good seasons over the past few years, including his performance in the World Baseball Classic in 2013, where he hit .524/.545/.667 with 11 hits through 21 at bats. During the 2013-2014 season, Fernandez hit .326/.482/.456 with 10 strikeouts (!) and 65 walks in 314 plate appearances. The 2014-2015 season started in September, and in 65 plate appearances, Fernandez hit .315/.415/.426. Back in August, Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote that Fernandez was <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/cuban-second-baseman-jose-fernandez-whereabouts-unknown/" style="background-color: #ffffff;">one of Cuba's three best players</a> who was currently unavailable to MLB teams. According to Badler, he has excellent on-base skills and plate discipline. However, he's considered to be just adequate as a second baseman, and he does not hit for much power. He hits a lot of ground balls, and even lead the league in most double-plays hit into back in 2008. Fernandez is also considered to have <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/cuban-second-baseman-jose-fernandez-defects.html" style="background-color: #ffffff;">below-average speed and an unconventional swing</a>.</p>
<p>On the plus side, Fernandez has been considered by some to be ready to take on an <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/cuban-second-baseman-jose-fernandez-defects.html">everyday job</a> in the big leagues. He also will not be subject to international spending limits because of his age and how long he played for Serie Nacional in Cuba. Unfortunately, Fernandez will need to establish permanent residency in another country before he can even be considered for free agency. He would then need to be cleared by the Office of Foreign Assets Control before he could be eligible to sign with a team. There is no set timetable for how long all of that could take, but it took fellow countryman Yasmany Tomas three and a half months, so Fernandez could possibly be cleared to sign around the time of spring training. The <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> don't necessarily have a pressing need for the second baseman, since <span>Martin Prado</span> looks to have the starting job next season, unless the Yankees decide to go with Rob Refsnyder or <span>Jose Pirela</span> instead. Still, it wouldn't hurt to check on him.</p>
<p>Would you like to see the Yankees pursue Fernandez if he becomes a free agent?</p>
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https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/11/28/7300957/yankees-free-agent-target-jose-fernandez-second-base-cubaCaitlin Rogers2014-11-27T15:00:02-05:002014-11-27T15:00:02-05:00Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Jung-Ho Kang
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<figcaption>Richard Heathcote/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Will the New York Yankees and Jung-Ho Kang make history?</p> <p class="MsoNormal">With <span>Derek Jeter</span> officially retired, Brian Cashman and his staff have been left with the daunting task of replacing their iconic shortstop. In an imperfect free agent market for shortstops, it’s possible that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> are looking for a young player with upside, with <span>Hanley Ramirez</span> now headed to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> and <span>Stephen Drew</span> coming off of a horrific season at the plate.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Jung-Ho Kang is a 27-year old South Korean shortstop with the Nexen Heroes, of the Korean Baseball Organization. It’s been reported that Kang will be posted by the Heroes using the old posting process that applied to the Japanese baseball leagues prior to 2014. All interested teams will make blind bids, with the highest bid winning an exclusive 30-day negotiating window. In the unlikely event that a contract agreement isn’t in place at the end of 30-days, Kang would remain with the KBO. Ken Rosenthal, of Fox Sports, has reported that he’s not expected to be posted until after the winter meetings in early December.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By any offensive standard, Kang put up MVP caliber numbers at the shortstop position this past season and is now in the prime years of his career. Nicknamed "The Korean A-Rod," the right-handed hitter put up a slash line of .354/.457/.733, to go along with 39 home runs, 115 runs batted in and 36 doubles. That’s quite a remarkable accomplishment for any player, nonetheless a shortstop. With power numbers on the decline throughout the majors, Kang will be coveted, by teams that believe his skill set will translate to the major leagues. However, those numbers need to be taken with caution as most opinions show that the KBO’s level play falls in the range of High-A talent. There does seem to be mixed reports on how he will play in America, as some scouts see him as a 10+ home run player, while others believe that his pronounce leg kick will be a hindrance on inside fastballs with increased velocity.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On the defensive side of the field, scouting reports are a mixed bag as well. Some believe that Kang will stick at the position, while others think that second or third base are better fits. The skeptics have concern with his range and arm strength when making plays deep in the hole; the believers feel that he can be adequate at the position. To his credit he has won the KBO’s equivalent of the gold glove three times.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">History will be made when Jung-Ho Kang signs a major league contract, as no other hitter has gone from the KBO to Major League Baseball. In fact only Hyun-jin Ryu of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> has ever joined Major League Baseball, via the KBO. Time will tell whether or not the Yankees talent evaluators believe that Kang can be successful here in the states. If they have interest, it bears keeping in mind that they had scouted <span>Masahiro Tanaka</span> for seven years before signing him last offseason, so they without question do their due diligence. One thing is for sure--whoever succeeds Derek Jeter has huge shoes to fill.</p>
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https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/11/27/7274981/yankees-2015-free-agent-target-jung-ho-kangDouglas Hall2014-11-27T12:00:06-05:002014-11-27T12:00:06-05:00Yankees 2015 Free Agent Target: Kenta Maeda
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<figcaption>Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How well will Kenta Maeda's skills translate to the MLB? And might the Yankees be a fit?</p> <p><b>2014 Statistics (in Japan):</b> 187 IP, 2.60 ERA, 22% K%, 5% BB%,</p>
<p><b>2015 Age:</b> 27</p>
<p><b> Position:</b> <span>Right-handed starter</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> starting rotation depth chart is looking pretty thin at the moment. The possible departures of <span>Hiroki Kuroda</span> and <span>Brandon McCarthy</span>, along with flimsy health records of Masahiro Tanaka and <span>CC Sabathia</span> leave the team with a real lack of reliable arms to fill out their rotation. As a result, Brian Cashman and co. seem likely to add a starting pitcher or two or three before it's all said and done. <span>Max Scherzer</span>, <span>Jon Lester</span>, and <span>James Shields</span> headline this year's crop of free agent starters, but there's a much less recognizable name out there that could also be on the market: Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda. The Hiroshima Carp have yet to announce whether or not they will post the 26-year-old this winter, but if they do, Maeda could be a good fit for the Yankees. The Bombers have obviously had recent success in the Japanese pitching market with Masahiro Tanaka, so perhaps they'll be willing to try their luck with this winter's top Japanese export. To be perfectly clear, Maeda isn't Tanaka. Neither his stuff nor his statistical track record from Japan match what Tanaka offered, but that's not to say he can't be a useful mid-rotation starter. Ben Badler of <a target="new" href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/kenta-maeda-looks-sharp-season-finale/">Baseball America</a> (subscription required) had some encouraging things to say about Maeda's repertoire:</span></p>
<blockquote>Maeda’s velocity was impressive, ranging from 90-94 mph and hitting 94 four times. In previous outings, he’s thrown anywhere from 87-94 mph, but he didn’t throw a fastball below 90 today and he spotted it well. Maeda pitched mostly off his four-seamer, though he mixed in a handful of two-seam fastballs with a little more armside run, too. His go-to secondary weapon is his 80-84 mph slider, which batters swung through eight of the 33 times he threw the pitch. It’s a slightly-above average offering with tight spin and quick, late break, though he’s prone to hanging the pitch and got away with some mistakes today. Maeda threw an 85-86 mph changeup that flashed average with good tailing action that he used mostly against lefthanded hitters, with 15 of his 16 changeups coming against lefties.</blockquote>
<p>Let's dive into some PITCHf/x data to find some current big leaguers who have similar stuff. A total of eight right-handed pitchers threw at least 100 innings last year and met those pitch selection and velocity criteria. Most of them put up numbers that suggest their true-talent ERA is somewhere in the high 3's.</p>
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#ADD8E6">
<td width="112"><span>Pitcher</span></td>
<td width="50"><span>K%</span></td>
<td width="43"><span>BB%</span></td>
<td width="50"><span>GB%</span></td>
<td width="35"><span>ERA</span></td>
<td width="35"><span>FIP</span></td>
<td width="42"><span>SIERA</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Jason Hammel</span></td>
<td>22%</td>
<td>6%</td>
<td>40%</td>
<td>3.47</td>
<td>3.92</td>
<td>3.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>James Shields</td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>5%</td>
<td>45%</td>
<td>3.21</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Drew Hutchison</span></td>
<td>23%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>36%</td>
<td>4.48</td>
<td>3.85</td>
<td>3.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Ervin Santana</span></td>
<td>22%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>43%</td>
<td>3.95</td>
<td>3.39</td>
<td>3.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Jake Odorizzi</span></td>
<td>24%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>30%</td>
<td>4.13</td>
<td>3.75</td>
<td>3.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Vance Worley</span></td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>5%</td>
<td>49%</td>
<td>2.85</td>
<td>3.44</td>
<td>3.68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Matt Garza</span></td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>7%</td>
<td>43%</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
<td>4.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rubby De la Rosa</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>46%</td>
<td>4.43</td>
<td>4.30</td>
<td>4.21</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#F0E68C">
<td>Average</td>
<td>20%</td>
<td>7%</td>
<td>42%</td>
<td>3.77</td>
<td>3.72</td>
<td>3.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>Now let's take a look at how Maeda's numbers from Japan might translate to the MLB. In his age 26 season, Maeda pitched to a 2.60 ERA in Japan, which was among the best in the Japan Central League. Maeda struck out 22% of opposing batters, while walking 5%, and allowing just 12 homers over 187 innings. Here's how K%, BB%, and HR% have translated for the nine starting pitchers who have made the transition from Japan since 2007:</p>
<p><strong>MLB K% = Japan K% - 2.2%</strong></p>
<p><strong>MLB BB% = Japan BB% + 3.6%</strong></p>
<p><strong>MLB HR% = Japan K% + 1.2%</strong></p>
<p>Applying these transformations to Maeda's numbers gives us a pitcher who strikes out 19% of opposing hitters, walks 9%, and allows a homer 3% of the time. Here are a few MLB pitchers who came close to meeting those statistical criteria in 2014.</p>
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#ADD8E6">
<td width="108"><span>Name</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>K%</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>BB%</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>HR%</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>ERA</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>FIP</span></td>
<td width="64"><span>SIERA</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Wade Miley</span></td>
<td>21%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.34</td>
<td>3.98</td>
<td>3.67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Chase Anderson</span></td>
<td>22%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.01</td>
<td>4.22</td>
<td>3.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Trevor Bauer</span></td>
<td>22%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>4.18</td>
<td>4.01</td>
<td>3.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Tim Lincecum</span></td>
<td>20%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.74</td>
<td>4.31</td>
<td>3.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Roenis Elias</span></td>
<td>21%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>3.85</td>
<td>4.03</td>
<td>3.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jorge De la Rosa</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.10</td>
<td>4.34</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>R.A. Dickey</span></td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>8%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>3.71</td>
<td>4.32</td>
<td>4.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>David Phelps</span></td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.38</td>
<td>4.41</td>
<td>4.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Edwin Jackson</span></td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>10%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>6.33</td>
<td>4.45</td>
<td>4.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Hector Santiago</span></td>
<td>20%</td>
<td>10%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>3.75</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>4.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Travis Wood</span></td>
<td>19%</td>
<td>10%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>5.03</td>
<td>4.38</td>
<td>4.41</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#F0E68C">
<td>Average</td>
<td>20%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>3%</td>
<td>4.40</td>
<td>4.25</td>
<td>4.06</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>By both of these analyses, Maeda looks like a steady, mid-rotation starter, who'll put up an ERA around 4.00. While not nearly as exciting as a Scherzer or Lester, an arm like that is still worth two or three WAR over a full season of games, and would fit very nicely in the Yankees starting rotation.</p>
<p>Going after Maeda would also make some economic sense for the Yankees, as they'd eschew the 50% Competitive Balance Tax on a chunk of the cash given to Maeda. By the CBT, the Yankees are required to pay an extra fifty cents on every dollar of payroll over the $189M threshold -- a mark they'll certainly blow past this winter. However, the CBT doesn't apply to posting fees, so any Maeda deal would effectively be taxed at ~42%, while a contract given to a domestic free agent would be taxed at the full 50%.</p>
<p>Plenty of clubs figure to start vying for Maeda's services if his posting starts to look like more of a certainty, especially after seeing <span>Masahiro Tanaka's</span> successful transition to American Baseball. Time will tell if Maeda will be available, and how aggressively the Yankees will pursue this year's high-profile Japanese arm. But the Bombers clearly need some quality rotation pieces, and Maeda fits that bill.</p>
https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/11/27/7297823/yankees-potential-2015-free-agent-target-kenta-maedachris.mitchell.71402014-11-26T17:00:03-05:002014-11-26T17:00:03-05:00Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Mike Morse
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nIhnaqJ9qurTImiTB9JG8fa_N-s=/0x132:4065x2842/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44213778/usa-today-8171998.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Michael Morse could solve the Yankees' depth issues at three different spots.</p> <p><b>2014 Statistics</b>: 482 PA, .279/.336/.479, 16 HR, 133 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR</p>
<p><b>2015 Age</b>: 33</p>
<p><b>Position</b>: Corner outfielder, first baseman and designated hitter</p>
<p>Depending on your perspective, the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> are either set at right field, first base and designated hitter in 2015 or they have gaping holes at all three positions. They do have players penciled in at each spot - <span>Carlos Beltran</span> for right, <span>Mark Teixeira</span> for first and <span>Alex Rodriguez</span> as the DH - but those guys are a combined 110 years old and together they've appeared in just under 45 percent of possible games over the past two seasons. The idea that all - or any - will be healthy, consistent contributors throughout next year is borderline preposterous.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Yankees, Beltran, Teixeira and Rodriguez are set to earn a combined $57.5 million in 2015 - $63.5 mil if A-Rod passes Willie Mays on the all-time home run list. That makes it fairly unlikely that the club will go out and sign a new starter to replace any of them. As an alternative they could look for a player capable of plugging in at all three slots, and in that search, <span>Michael Morse</span> could be an intriguing name.</p>
<p>Morse, who'll turn 33 in March, has been a bona fide power threat for most of his ten-year major league career. That's a dying breed in a sport increasingly dominated by pitching. He's compiled a career slash line of .281/.335/.473 to go with a pretty ISO of .193. As a right-handed hitter with a lifetime OPS of .821 and a wRC+ of 124 versus left-handed pitchers, Morse would be a balancing addition to a Yankee lineup whose better bats are mostly lefty.</p>
<p>Morse's spray charts show a lot of opposite field power, which is always a useful tool for a righty swinger in Yankee Stadium. In 2012 and 2013 the majority of his home runs went to right field, and though he pulled more of his dingers in 2014, he continued to hit plenty of soaring flies to right, several of which would have gone out in the Bronx.</p>
<p><iframe style="border:1px solid black;" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=0&type=spray&num=1&h=450&w=450&players=3035&position=OF&mt=battedball&ss=2012&se=2014&cht=battedball&pos=ALL&vs=ALL"></iframe><br><span>Source: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=3035&position=OF&type=battedball&ss1=2012&se1=2014&cht1=battedball&pos1=ALL&vs1=ALL">FanGraphs</a></span></p>
<p>On the downside, Morse isn't exactly patient at the plate. He struck out in more than a quarter of his at bats in 2014 while walking at a modest rate of 6.4 percent. He has experience at first base and both corner outfield positions, but his defense leaves much to be desired, especially in the outfield where he has a career UZR/150 of -19.2, including a mark of -25.4 in 2014. He also has an extensive injury history that's allowed him to eclipse 500 plate appearances just once in his career. He spent time on the DL in each of the past three seasons with back, quad and oblique injuries and he had arthroscopic surgery on his left wrist during the 2013-14 off-season.</p>
<p>After a down 2013 in Seattle and Baltimore, Morse played last season on a one-year $6 million contract from the <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Giants</a>. In his second shot at free agency, this time buoyed by a strong regular season and a solid 6 for 22 playoff run highlighted by a game-tying bomb late in Game 5 of the NLCS, he'll seek out the first multi-year guarantee of his career. Unlike fellow outfield/DH type free agents like <span>Nelson Cruz</span> and <span>Michael Cuddyer</span>, Morse is qualifying offer and draft pick compensation free, which will certainly inflate his stock.</p>
<p>The two-year, $16 million agreement that <span>Marlon Byrd</span> reached with the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Phillies</a> a year ago could be a good model for Morse's free agent value, but he may have his sights set on something more lucrative - like the $21 million pact Cuddyer snagged from the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Mets</a> this month, or the three years and $30 mil <span>Billy Butler</span> just got from the A's.</p>
<p>The Yankees already brought back <span>Chris Young</span>, which makes the signing of any other outfielder highly unlikely. But the thought of Young in an everyday role in case of an injury is wholly unappetizing, and a hybrid outfielder/first baseman - one who can actually hit - brings a different kind of value. If the bidding stays on the low end, the Yankees would be wise to show some interest in Morse. He might prefer to sign with a team where he fills a single everyday role, but playing time in New York should be plentiful behind the ancient wonders of the world that represent a third of the Yankee lineup.</p>
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https://www.pinstripealley.com/2014/11/26/7270893/yankees-free-agent-target-michael-morse-dh-outfieldHarlan Spence2014-11-26T15:00:02-05:002014-11-26T15:00:02-05:00Yankees 2015 Free Agent Target: Roberto Hernandez
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WElgF4APsXYSqxCHPpGuYctAnQw=/0x299:2939x2258/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44231946/usa-today-8067883.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He isn't the sexiest name available, but there is still value to be had in a Swingman who can spot start.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>2014 Statistics: </b>164.2 innings, 29 GS, 4.10 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 5.74 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, -0.5 fWAR</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>2015 Age: </b>34?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>With the starting rotation for next season full of question marks, the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> have made it a significant priority to find pitching. The man formerly known as Fausto Carmona is not the sexiest name floating around the free agent market, but there is still value in being a backend starter and swingman.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>2014 proved to be one of the better seasons in Hernandez’ career. Initially signed by the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Dodgers</a> as a free agent, Hernandez put up a 4.74 ERA with 48 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts, and 18 walks in 43 2/3 innings. He was eventually traded to the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Phillies</a> where he pitched significantly better with a 3.87 ERA with a 108 hits allowed, 75 strikeouts, and 55 free passes in 120 innings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Hernandez possesses an excellent ability to generate ground balls, thanks to a strong sinking fastball and changeup. For the 2014 season, Hernandez was able to get batters to beat the ball into the dirt roughly 50% of the time. Surprisingly, this represents a personal low for the right-hander, who holds a career 56% ground ball rate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Unfortunately, that is about the most one can expect from Hernandez. Although he possesses incredibly strong ground ball rates, he is quite homer-prone, giving up roughly one dinger every nine innings. He is not going to provide a team length as he has only thrown over 180 innings three times in his eight-year career. Hernandez also does not strike many out batters as his 2014 strikeout rate of 5.74 and career 5.6 K/9 rate can attest. All of the flaws could be forgiven somewhat if Hernandez was at least able to limit free passes, but that too has proven elusive as Hernandez has given out four free passes every nine innings during this season.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><span>Roberto Hernandez</span> is not a good pitcher outside of his well above average ability to generate ground balls. He does not possess many, if any, redeeming qualities. He walks too many, strikes out far too few, and gives up a home runs at a fairly high clip. He may be worth a minor league contract and invitation to spring training, but he should not be guaranteed anything more. </span></p>
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https://www.pinstripealley.com/2014/11/26/7290273/yankees-free-agent-target-roberto-hernandez-fausto-carmonaShaunRunDMC2014-11-25T15:00:04-05:002014-11-25T15:00:04-05:00Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Alex Rios
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1PxgW0yurDD5cjdP9vO3kVRUuSU=/0x0:4362x2908/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44210080/usa-today-8004546.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He was most recently on the team's trade radar; could the Yankees try to target him once again?</p> <p><span><b>2014 Statistics</b>: 131 games, </span>.280/.311/.398, 92 wRC+, 4 HR, 0.2 fWAR</p>
<p><span><b>2015 Age</b>: 34</span></p>
<p><span><b>Position</b>: Right handed corner outfielder</span></p>
<p>Last month the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> declined <span>Alex Rios</span>' $14 million team option for 2015, so it's pretty easy to say that there is a ceiling to his market value. After coming off of two three-plus win seasons in 2012 and 2013, Rios was absolutely dreadful in 2014, putting up a slash line of .280/.311/.398 (92 wRC+) and by all three WAR measures, he was worth less than one win in nearly a full season of play.</p>
<p>This is not to say that Rios is a bad player overall. At the age of 33, Rios has put up <i>seven</i> 2.0+ fWAR seasons. It isn't easy to be at least an average player for almost a decade. The problem is, though, that in between those seasons of decency there is absolute trash. He has had four seasons of less than 1.0 fWAR, and two seasons that were at or well below replacement level. Consistency and reliability are just as important as being good, and Rios has not been that over the past few years.</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="rios_woba" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RnVSow0A1BP0EZr4MSa2vE2bCjU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2482050/2090_OF_season_mini_8_20140928.0.png">
</figure>
</p>
<p>Here are Rios' wOBA marks over his career, and if you look over the past five years, you get the following wRC+'s: 109, 60, 126, 104, and 92. And even though I'm sure his true talent level is more closely aligned with the past two seasons, the point is that it's incredibly hard to tell <i>which</i> Alex Rios you will get over a full season.</p>
<p>Even beyond the point that it's pretty hard to peg what his true talent level truly is, it's worthy to note that whatever it may be, it's certainly getting worse. If we look at K%,</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="rios_ks" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2WnAtp_l00XnRawELVWlIKoLgQY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2482054/2090_OF_season_mini_4_20140928.0.png">
</figure>
</p>
<p>or BB% (which was never good to begin with),</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="rios_bb" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Kktek6lxV-hQqrykiHQr6VeWs0g=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2482058/2090_OF_season_mini_3_20140928.0.png">
</figure>
</p>
<p>or even ISO,</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="rios_iso" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/87DnAuJNZRfsrfHd4RjNLRB-IzU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2482060/2090_OF_season_mini_6_20140928.0.png">
</figure>
</p>
<p>we get trends that are all heading in negative directions.</p>
<p>And the one strength he used to have, defense, is also deteriorating. In 2008, both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs had Rios as a 2.1 dWAR and +18.2 defender, respectively. Today that is probably not the case. While Baseball Prospectus' FRAA rates him as a +5.4 defender, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference find him to be a negative.</p>
<p>In terms of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>' needs, Rios is a square peg in a round hole. Given the age and outfield depth of the team, I don't see the need for a corner outfielder with below average offensive <i>and</i> defensive ability. It may work for a team that has an absolute black hole at a corner outfield position, but the Yankees are better off to stay the course on <span>Carlos Beltran</span> than to sink another few million dollars into what would be a risky venture. Of all the possible outfielders that the Yankees could possibly justify signing, this one is one of the least justifiable.</p>
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https://www.pinstripealley.com/2014/11/25/7267727/yankees-free-agent-rangers-alex-riosMatt Provenzano