:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15984845/172583458.0.jpg)
CC Sabathia won his 200th career game this week against the Minnesota Twins, becoming the 114th pitcher in major league history to do so. While wins are an overrated stat for pitchers, the fact is that they become a pretty good barometer of how good a pitcher was over his career. We all know that CC has been a top of the rotation guy for most of his major league career. Now that he has won 200, what are his chances to reach the 300 win milestone?
CC seems to be positioned quite well. Catfish Hunter was the youngest to reach 200 wins in the modern era (post-1920), at just over 30 years and five months. CC was not too far behind Hunter, reaching 200 wins just before his 33rd birthday (July 21). Since 1920, there have only been ten pitchers that have reached 200 wins through their age-32 season:
| Name | Before Age 33 Wins | Before Age 33 fWAR | After Age 32 Wins | After Age 32 fWAR | Total Wins | Total fWAR |
| Bob Feller | 230 | 64.1 | 36 | 5.8 | 266 | 69.9 |
| Catfish Hunter | 222 | 33.5 | 2 | 0.3 | 224 | 33.8 |
| Robin Roberts | 221 | 62.2 | 65 | 16.1 | 286 | 78.3 |
| Jim Palmer | 215 | 44.5 | 53 | 7.3 | 268 | 51.8 |
| Don Drysdale | 209 | 66.3 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 66.3 |
| Tom Seaver | 203 | 73.9 | 108 | 23.8 | 311 | 97.7 |
| Juan Marichal | 203 | 59.7 | 40 | 10.2 | 243 | 69.9 |
| Greg Maddux | 202 | 73.9 | 153 | 40.4 | 355 | 114.3 |
| Hal Newhouser | 200 | 62.7 | 7 | 0.2 | 207 | 62.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 200 | 60.6 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
It sure doesn't look like it is beneficial to have an early start to 300 wins. Of the nine other pitchers who reached 200 wins by their age-32 season, only 2 of them notched 300 victories - Greg Maddux and Tom Seaver. Drysdale, Hunter, and Newhouser were basically done after their age 32 season, totaling 9 wins between the three of them (seven by Newhouser), and Drysdale never pitched after his age-32 season. This group averaged 52 wins after age 32, with a median of 40 wins. Their average career total was 263 wins, with a median of 266 wins.
Most of these pitchers pitched a ton of innings during their younger years, which could be a contributing factor in how quickly they declined. The group averaged 3071.1 IP, with a median of 3049.2 IP. CC, at 2688.1 IP is the lowest of the group, falling 104 IP behind Marichal and 743.2 IP behind first-place Don Drysdale. This is a reflection of the attempt to limit the number of innings pitched by starters, especially young ones, in the last few decades. Still, CC has always been one of the league leaders in innings pitched, reaching the 200 IP mark seven times, including the past six years, and five times he has reached the 230 IP mark. Since his debut in 2001, he is second in innings pitched, behind only Mark Buehrle.
Hopefully, this means that CC will be able to stick around and be productive longer than most of the other pitchers on this list. CC has averaged 16 wins per season over his career. At that pace, he would need only six more seasons to collect his 300th win, putting him in his age 38 season, and having him win his 300th sometime after his 39th birthday. If he plays through his age 40 season, he would only need to average about 12 wins each season to reach 300 victories.
There have been thirteen 300-game winners since 1920. How did they stack up to CC in pre-33 wins, and how many wins did they collect after age 32? Let's take a look:
| Name | Before Age 33 Wins | Before Age 33 fWAR | After Age 32 Wins | After Age 32 fWAR | Total Wins | Total fWAR |
| Warren Spahn | 145 | 41.4 | 218 | 39.5 | 363 | 80.9 |
| Greg Maddux | 202 | 73.9 | 153 | 40.4 | 355 | 114.3 |
| Roger Clemens | 182 | 76 | 172 | 63.9 | 354 | 139.9 |
| Steve Carlton | 191 | 60.8 | 138 | 42.4 | 329 | 103.2 |
| Nolan Ryan | 167 | 48.4 | 157 | 58.1 | 324 | 106.5 |
| Don Sutton | 190 | 57 | 134 | 28.8 | 324 | 85.8 |
| Phil Niekro | 81 | 21.9 | 237 | 58.5 | 318 | 80.4 |
| Gaylord Perry | 134 | 46.3 | 180 | 57.8 | 314 | 104.1 |
| Tom Seaver | 203 | 73.9 | 108 | 23.8 | 311 | 97.7 |
| Tom Glavine | 173 | 41.5 | 132 | 22.4 | 305 | 63.9 |
| Randy Johnson | 104 | 33 | 199 | 77.3 | 303 | 110.3 |
| Lefty Grove | 171 | 49.6 | 129 | 43.7 | 300 | 93.3 |
| Early Wynn | 144 | 26.3 | 156 | 36.2 | 300 | 62.5 |
These 300 game winners averaged 161 pre-33 wins, with a median of 171 wins. This falls short of the pace set by CC. However, this group stands out with their post-32 wins, averaging 163 wins, with a median of 156 wins. In fact, 12 of these 13 pitchers are in the top 22 in post-32 wins since 1920, with Tom Seaver bringing in the rear at 41st since 1920. If CC was to match this pace, he would end up near Warren Spahn's lefty record of 363 wins, which is also the record for wins in the modern ball era.
CC Sabathia has had a great career, and has matched an historic pace in reaching 200 wins in his age 32 season, becoming one of ten pitchers since 1920 to achieve that accomplishment. However, of the other nine, only two ever won 300 games - Tom Seaver and Greg Maddux. Winning 300 games seems to be more dependent on how well you pitch and earn victories in your thirties and forties, rather than how you do in your twenties. In fact, of the 13 pitchers since 1920 with 300 victories, five hadn't even reached 150 wins by the end of their age-32 season. Only one of the 13 was outside of the top 22 in wins after age 32. As tempting as it is to believe that Sabathia will win 300 games, it may be safer to bet the under in this particular instance.
So, will CC win 300 games? How many wins do you think he will retire with? Vote below.