If you've got a problem analyzing the last two weeks of the Yankees offense due to small sample size issues, then I suggest you try reading some other article because I'm doing it anyway! Seriously though, there are only 37 games left entering Wednesday night's game. So the time for waiting around for more events before judging anything is over.
Anyone who has been following the Yankees this year, even casually, has seen a significant delineation between the current version of the Yankees offense,and the one that existed before about two weeks ago. In the last two weeks the Yankees have scored five or more runs in 47% of the games they've played. Previously, they had produced at that rate only 33% of the time. The Yankees had the fourteenth ranked offense by OPS in the American League before the All-Star break. They've been the best so far in the month of August. It's not just random luck as there are tangible new bats in the lineup now that haven't been there before. What I want to take a look at is how much of that offense is due to the new members of the lineup? How much is due to the old members of the lineup? How much of the old members improvement is due to a deeper overall lineup versus players just getting on a hot streak?
Pre-All Star Break |
||||||
RK |
TEAM |
GP |
R |
HR |
AVG |
OPS |
1 |
Boston |
97 |
498 |
98 |
.277 |
.793 |
2 |
Detroit |
94 |
477 |
106 |
.281 |
.785 |
3 |
Baltimore |
96 |
462 |
132 |
.266 |
.762 |
4 |
LA Angels |
93 |
430 |
102 |
.267 |
.755 |
5 |
Tampa Bay |
96 |
449 |
106 |
.261 |
.749 |
6 |
Cleveland |
95 |
454 |
104 |
.258 |
.748 |
7 |
Texas |
95 |
411 |
112 |
.260 |
.739 |
8 |
Toronto |
94 |
428 |
115 |
.252 |
.732 |
9 |
Oakland |
95 |
429 |
98 |
.245 |
.718 |
10 |
Seattle |
95 |
373 |
115 |
.244 |
.710 |
11 |
Minnesota |
92 |
379 |
86 |
.245 |
.703 |
12 |
Chicago Sox |
92 |
345 |
89 |
.249 |
.686 |
13 |
Kansas City |
92 |
365 |
60 |
.256 |
.686 |
14 |
NY Yankees |
95 |
373 |
88 |
.243 |
.684 |
15 |
Houston |
94 |
351 |
90 |
.235 |
.668 |
August |
||||||
RK |
TEAM |
GP |
R |
HR |
AVG |
OPS |
1 |
NY Yankees |
18 |
90 |
21 |
.285 |
.787 |
2 |
Boston |
19 |
92 |
16 |
.282 |
.786 |
3 |
Detroit |
19 |
80 |
23 |
.277 |
.767 |
4 |
Baltimore |
17 |
92 |
25 |
.271 |
.764 |
5 |
Oakland |
17 |
69 |
20 |
.251 |
.744 |
6 |
LA Angels |
19 |
87 |
19 |
.263 |
.742 |
7 |
Texas |
18 |
111 |
15 |
.268 |
.741 |
8 |
Minnesota |
20 |
76 |
26 |
.240 |
.736 |
9 |
Tampa Bay |
16 |
60 |
12 |
.267 |
.723 |
10 |
Seattle |
18 |
73 |
20 |
.244 |
.719 |
11 |
Kansas City |
20 |
80 |
15 |
.269 |
.710 |
12 |
Chicago Sox |
19 |
72 |
17 |
.262 |
.705 |
13 |
Houston |
19 |
74 |
19 |
.247 |
.693 |
14 |
Toronto |
19 |
74 |
14 |
.245 |
.677 |
15 |
Cleveland |
19 |
68 |
18 |
.226 |
.643 |
The new guys in the lineup are Alfonso Soriano, Curtis Granderson, and that guy Ryan Dempster has a beef with: Alex Rodriguez. All three players have produced at over a .800 OPS since joining the lineup. That's huge, considering we're talking about one third of the lineup. The offense had been producing to the tune of .684 OPS before the break. If we take 66% of that and 33% of the average OPS the new guys have produced at so far, then we would have an estimated .742 rate of OPS production. So yes, obviously those new guys have been a huge part of the improved offensive production. However, there is another 45 basis points worth of OPS that hasn't been accounted for in this month. How much of that is due to lineup support from the new guys presence and how much is just a hot streak from the old guys?
New Guys |
G |
PA |
R |
H |
2B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Soriano, Alfonso |
23 |
97 |
19 |
26 |
2 |
8 |
26 |
3 |
4 |
25 |
.283 |
.320 |
.565 |
.885 |
Granderson, Curtis |
17 |
68 |
10 |
16 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
12 |
17 |
.286 |
.412 |
.446 |
.858 |
Rodriguez, Alex |
14 |
62 |
7 |
16 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
15 |
.296 |
.387 |
.444 |
.832 |
Old Guys |
POS |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OPS |
Cano,Robinson |
2B |
51 |
8 |
24 |
2 |
11 |
1 |
.471 |
1.228 |
Soriano, Alfonso |
LF |
54 |
12 |
18 |
7 |
22 |
2 |
.333 |
1.120 |
Nunez, Eduardo |
SS |
45 |
7 |
15 |
1 |
7 |
3 |
.333 |
.881 |
Overbay,Lyle |
1B |
39 |
7 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
.308 |
.800 |
Reynolds, Mark |
12 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
.250 |
.808 |
|
Stewart, Chris |
C |
29 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
.241 |
.712 |
Romine, Austin |
15 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
.333 |
.844 |
|
Gardner, Brett |
CF |
57 |
8 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
3 |
.246 |
.658 |
Suzuki, Ichiro |
RF |
44 |
7 |
11 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
.250 |
.540 |
This lineup has only been available for the last two weeks, so we're only looking at about 60 plate appearances. I added Soriano's numbers in there with the old guys for the last two weeks, so you could see what he has done with the new lineup in place. I knew Robinson Cano had been hot, but I never would have guessed he had the highest OPS considering all of those dingers Soriano has been hitting. I also grouped the two primary platoons to make it easier to see the lineup effect, otherwise everyone is ranked by OPS. Without delving into Pitchfx data, I'm going to make the assumption that Cano's hot streak is being helped by batting in front of Soriano. He's only been intentionally walked once since the Chicago White Sox series.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure you can make that argument for anyone else's production in the lineup. The only two players that consistently get to bat in front of the new players are Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki, and they're at the bottom of the list in terms of OPS. Eduardo Nunez looks to finally be having some positive regression kick in as he's been a better hitter than what he had shown earlier in the season. The same thing might be happening for the catching duo. Neither Chris Stewart nor Austin Romine have ever been considered good hitters, but their hitting production has been so poor at times that they might have just been due for a hot streak. Keep breathing through your eyelids, Romine.
The one other interesting improvement in the lineup is at first base. Lyle Overbay has been producing at a .801 OPS clip against right-handed pitchers this year. Pairing him with Mark Reynolds could allow him to continue OPSing in the .800 range. Before the Reynolds pick-up, Overbay was producing at a .720 OPS clip overall.
What about going forward? We can use ZiPS remaining estimated production for each player to get an idea based on a projection system. Three things that I do here to get an estimated level of OPS for the lineup going forward: 1.) I use a .800 figure for the platoon at first base since ZiPS doesn't know that. 2.) I averaged the OPS between Stewart and Romine using an assumption that they are going to split playing time more evenly the rest of the way. Not that that maters that much anyway. 3.) I did not weight the overall OPS figure towards the top of the lineup because it's easier not to and I figure it balances out if I'm being too optimistic with the first base platoon.
ZiPS Estimates |
OPS |
Lineup |
Cano,Robinson |
.888 |
.888 |
Granderson, Curtis |
.812 |
.812 |
Soriano, Alfonso |
.777 |
.777 |
Rodriguez, Alex |
.755 |
.755 |
Overbay, Lyle |
.704 |
.800 |
Reynolds, Mark |
.753 |
|
Gardner, Brett |
.728 |
.728 |
Suzuki, Ichiro |
.690 |
.690 |
Nunez, Eduardo |
.658 |
.658 |
Stewart, Chris |
.621 |
.637 |
Romine, Austin |
.652 |
|
Total Estimated OPS: |
.749 |
Well isn't that interesting? A .749 OPS would have put the Yankees offense at about fifth in the American League before the All-Star break. If Derek Jeter ever makes it back, then you could bump that estimate up a bit as ZiPS likes him to put up something north of a .700 OPS versus Nunez's .658 level of production. So even the projection systems think the new Yankee lineup is a legitimate threat versus not just a recently lucky pretender.
Looking back at our original questions concerning how much has been contributed by whom, I think it's safe to say that about 60% of the improved production of the last two weeks has come solely from having the new guys in the lineup. The majority of the rest of the improvement has come from Cano with his significantly improved lineup support. The new platoon at first base between Overbay and Reynolds is also going to help the rest of the season, but Reynolds just got here last weekend. There are small samples and then there's just a series and a half. The players who have had a couple of hot weeks have off-set the recent struggles from Gardner and Suzuki. The Yankee offense 2.0 probably isn't going to finish out the season with the best offense in the league, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that it is now, at least, in the top third of the league going forward. It's still going to be a pretty hard row to hoe to get the Yanks into a pseudo one-game wild card playoff spot, but two weeks ago they were given less than a 2% statistical chance of that outcome. After Wednesday night's win, that's up to 12.9%. Crazier things have happened and at least they've got an offense worth tuning in to watch.