Yankees potential trade target: Jack Flaherty

Through the first two-and-a-half months of the season, the Yankees possessed one of the best starting rotations in baseball, first in ERA (2.77) and second in innings pitched (409). Since then, the rotation has placed dead last by a healthy margin across a litany of metrics, including ERA (7.04), FIP (5.78), home runs per nine (2.23), and fWAR (-0.4).

With Gerrit Cole continuing to shake off the rust following his return from injury, Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil getting devoured by the regression monster, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman having their share of shaky outings, and Clarke Schmidt’s absence due to injury, the Yankees feel a man light in the rotation and there are few better options to reinforce the unit than the Tigers’ Jack Flaherty.

2024 Statistics: 15 starts, 89 IP, 3.24 ERA (129 ERA+), 3.06 FIP, 2.33 xFIP, 33.0 percent K%, 4.0 percent BB%, 2.1 fWAR

2024 FanGraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections: 13 starts, 71 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 25.9 percent K%, 7.8 percent BB%, 1.1 fWAR

Contract Status: Signed one-year, $14 million contract on December 20, 2023; free agent following 2024 season.

Flaherty began his career as one of the most promising young starters in the league, going 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA (152 ERA+), 3.46 FIP, 231 strikeouts, and 4.7 fWAR in 33 starts totaling 196.1 innings during his 2019 sophomore campaign in St. Louis. His remaining years with the Cardinals were rocky, starting with a high-profile dispute over arbitration figures, followed by a year-and-a-half missed due to shoulder injury in 2021-22, and culminating in a deadline trade to the Orioles — where he pitched so poorly that he was left out of the playoff rotation. Those four lost years left Flaherty in the wilderness during his first taste of free agency, forcing the righty to take a one-year pillow contract last winter.

Flaherty has done everything he can to regenerate his value as one of the top starters in baseball, building his success on a platform of strikeouts, limiting walks, and whiffs, where he places in the 95th percentile in each metric. His 3.06 FIP is 12th-best among starting pitchers, and with a 2.33 xFIP that is lowest among his peers, there is significant evidence that these results have staying power. Not only has he positioned himself to help a playoff contender down the stretch, but also to cash in on a multi-year deal once the season ends.

Flaherty pitches like a prototypical ace, looking to throw strikes and miss bats. When you are top-four among starting pitchers in both strikeout rate (33%) and walk rate (4%) — both career-bests — you know you are doing something right. Batted-ball metrics like exit velocity, launch angle, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all hovering around their career averages, which is further evidence that Flaherty is not approaching batters any differently; he’s just got his mojo back.

This rediscovered effectiveness starts with the recovery of Flaherty’s fastball velocity. His four-seamer is averaging 94 mph for the first time since 2021. During the depths of his troubles in his final years in St. Louis, the fastball’s depressed velocity was a popular topic of conversation. An early 2023 start perfectly encapsulated his struggles, his four-seamer averaging 91.9 mph on the day and dropping as low as 85.9 mph. The questions that followed from the beat writers prompted a snippy response from Flaherty, and that felt like the beginning of the end of his time with the Cardinals.

Just as important as the velocity, his four-seamer has its movement profile back. Flaherty is getting about two more inches of induced vertical break with the pitch than the last two seasons — back to 2019 levels of rise — with a boost in spin efficiency (or in other words, truer backspin) likely to thank. Instead of falling off plane and onto the barrel of the bat, the fastball is flying on a leveler plane and staying above the barrel.

With a pitcher of his injury history, there is always extra concern, and it is worth noting that Flaherty was forced to skip two starts in June after receiving injections to treat a recurring back issue. It is also worth noting that Flaherty experienced perhaps his worst game of the season immediately prior to the more recent skipped start, allowing five runs on seven hits (three home runs) in 5.2 innings to the lowly, Mike Trout-less Angels.

As my colleague Sam covered earlier this week, the Tigers are one of the few guaranteed sellers at the deadline. With so few projected sellers, this will likely drive up the cost of the resulting limited pool of available players, and this goes doubly so for starting pitching, Flaherty is probably one of two ace-caliber starters certain to be available in three weeks’ time, alongside fellow AL Central cellar-dweller Garrett Crochet, so one can anticipate competition for his services — though as a true rental, he won’t cost the farm and therefore is a target the Yankees should be all over.

All cited statistics were accurate as of the beginning of play on July 10th.