New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: ALCS Preview

It wasn’t always poetry in motion, but the Yankees handled business in the Division Series, defeating the Royals in four games. They advanced to the American League Championship Series for the second time in three seasons and the fourth time since 2017, when the Aaron Judge Era began in earnest. With one step remaining before a potential return to the Fall Classic, the Yanks will face a familiar foe, whom they’ve faced (and defeated) thrice in the playoffs over that time frame.

The Guardians stared down potential elimination at the hands of their AL Central rivals, the Tigers—they hadn’t won an elimination game since Game 6 of the 1997 World Series. They overcame multiple deficits in Game 4 to bring the series back to Ohio, then prevailed in the winner-take-all affair on the back of a Lane Thomas grand slam off Tarik Skubal. Cleveland had to battle tooth-and-nail to get to this point, presenting an opportunity for the well-rested Yankees to take advantage.

The Guardians possess many common characteristics with the Detroit team they eliminated: a lineup that isn't very deep, a bullpen that is very deep, and very few pitchers they trust to go more than two innings. The top of their lineup is plenty formidable, however—Steven Kwan is fresh off a 11-for-21 series from the leadoff spot, and José Ramírez remains one of the most formidable hitters in MLB. Josh Naylor was mostly held in check against Tigers’ pitching but can still barrel up a ball; he clobbered 31 home runs in the regular season. Besides those three, the Guards employ various platoons and timeshares at most other positions.

My fellow writer David Salamone will have more on the Cleveland offense later this morning, but in the meantime, we’ll dive into the likely pitching matchups.

Game 1

Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Alex Cobb
First Pitch: Monday, October 14th at 7:38pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: TBS, Max

Rodón fared extremely well against the Royals ... until he didn't. He left in the fourth inning after the Kansas City lineup ambushed him. In that trouble spot, he largely abandoned his new pitches; the changeup, curveball, and cutter all vanished as he reverted to his two-pitch tendencies. The Yankees will need him to trust his arsenal and go deeper—if he can keep the energy with which he kicked off his evening, that would be best. Predicting Rodón's performances has been among the most challenging tasks this year—who knows what the next start may bring?

The 37-year-old Cobb rode the injured list for most of the season after undergoing surgery on his hip. A 2023 All-Star, he was traded from San Francisco to Cleveland at the deadline and finally returned to action in August, though blister issues limited him in September. He pitched the first three innings of their Game 3 loss in Detroit, allowing two runs on three hits with two strikeouts. He’s a groundball-reliant sinker-splitter pitcher with the occasional curve sprinkled in. As the quick hook from his last start indicates, manager Steven Vogt may be reticent to let Cobb stay in the game for too long, especially with a rested bullpen (his strength).

Game 2

Matchup: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
First Pitch: Tuesday, October 15th at 7:38pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: TBS, Max

Cole's first start of the playoffs to kick off the ALDS was uninspiring, but his winning effort in Game 4 to help punch the Yankees’ ticket was far stronger. He led with his fastball and attacked the Royals with it, with outstanding results. The Guardians’ results against fastballs this year were roughly the same as Kansas City’s (.330 wOBA vs. .326), so leading with the heat again, particularly in the middle and bottom of the order, could be conducive to success. Since he’ll be on regular rest again—unlike in ALDS Game 1—hopefully all remains well with his rhythm. Cole’s lone start against Cleveland in the regular season this year was probably his strangest: six innings, no runs, one hit, five walks, two strikeouts. Go figure!

Tanner Bibee is about the only true starter that the Guardians employ. After finishing as the AL Rookie of the Year runner up behind Gunnar Henderson last year, Bibee’s second season was a slight step back. His fastball regressed harshly (from a +10 Statcast Run Value in 2023 to -11 in 2024), but his slider is elite, with a 36.1 percent whiff rate. His changeup is also an effective pitch which has helped him succeed in spite of the less effective fastball. Bibee recorded a 3.47 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 173.2 innings, striking out just over a batter per inning with a 2.3 BB/9.

It will be interesting to see if Vogt will as willing to pull Bibee early as he was in the Division Series. The Game 4 hook was more understandable, as a Zach McKinstry homer tied the game at 2-2 in the fifth, and in a win-or-go-home scenario with a terrific ‘pen, Vogt wasn’t taking chances. Back in Game 1 though, Bibee was winning 5-0 and had blanked the Tigers with relative ease on 76 pitches through 4.2 innings. But Vogt removed him anyway. Perhaps with all the innings the bullpen has had to fill to reach this point and given the fewer offdays in the ALCS, Vogt might concede a longer leash. Ideally, the Yankees’ lineup forces his hand early.

Game 3

Matchup: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (latter unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Thursday, October 17th at 7:38pm ET
Venue: Progressive Field (Cleveland, OH)
TV: TBS, Max

Schmidt cruised in the early stages of Game 3 against the Royals, looking like his first-half self, but ran out of steam in the fifth and was lifted before facing Bobby Witt Jr. a third time. The recipe for success with his cutter and sweeper has been established, but he may have been over-reliant on the former pitch, as KC's two-run rally featured three hits off cutters. After an offday between Games 2 and 3, the Yankees won’t hesitate to turn to the ‘pen again in the middle frames.

The Yankees saw Boyd back in August shortly after his return from Tommy John, and the lefty allowed three runs over 5.1 innings. If the Guardians got a performance like that out of the veteran, they’d likely welcome it, though Vogt’s vaudeville cane may strike well before the sixth. The 33-year-old did not allow a run in two ALDS starts, striking out five in each, though he only accounted for 6.2 total innings. Boyd has a traditional five-pitch mix, with a four-seam and two-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball.

Game 4

Matchup: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Joey Cantillo (latter unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Friday, October 18th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Progressive Field (Cleveland, OH)
TV: TBS, Max

Gil remains the mystery box for the Yankees. Said box went unopened in the Division Series, as the schedule lined up to allow Boone to start Cole twice and the rookie wasn’t needed out of the bullpen. Gil's opportunity will come at some point in this seven-game series, and this seems like a good spot to deploy him. Expect him to have about as quick a hook as one of the Guardians’ starters: if the command looks off following the long layoff, expect somebody to get active in the bullpen quickly before he walks the ballpark (or worse). There's reason to believe he could come back reinvigorated after the long layoff, however. He certainly looked a bit exhausted down the stretch.

Like the Yankees, Cleveland only required three starters, and opted for Bibee, Boyd, and Cobb. Righty Ben Lively might have been considered for the Game 4 start since he threw 151 innings this year, but he was ultimately left off the roster. The best guess at the moment for a possible Game 4 starter (or at least the “bulk guy” with an opener) is southpaw Joey Cantillo. The Yankees have had their issues with lefties in 2024, and while the 24-year-old wasn’t exactly gangbusters with a 4.89 ERA, he did strike out over a batter per inning (10.2 K/9) on 38.2 frames. Righty Gavin Williams is also an option since he made 16 starts, albeit while allowing at least there runs in half of them; he hasn’t pitched since September 22nd. Whoever starts this game will have the quickest hook of any Cleveland starter — barring a 2017 Luis Severino Wild Card Game-esque disaster.

Game 5 (if necessary)

Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Alex Cobb (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Saturday, October 19th at 8:08pm ET
Venue: Progressive Field (Cleveland, OH)
TV: TBS, Max

From this point forward, we're likely to see rematches from earlier in the series. Game 5 would line up the Game 1 starters to take the mound on normal rest. So let’s noodle on the Cleveland bullpen for a minute.

We will see lots of relievers enter for the Guardians, chief among them their closer Emmanuel Clase. The three-time All-Star has been peerless among relievers this year, and should receive plenty of at least down-ballot Cy Young votes, but Kerry Carpenter showed that he isn't immortal. That said, he demonstrated in Game 5 that he can get a six-out save if he needs to, and should be feared.

Behind Clase is a triumvirate of spectacular rookies that form the bridge to the ninth: Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and lefty Tim Herrin. Smith and Herrin pitched in all five ALDS games, while Gaddis appeared in all but Game 1. All three had regular season ERAs below 2.00 and Smith is perhaps the nastiest with an eye-popping 35.6 percent strikeout rate; he fanned a dozen Tigers in just 6.1 innings. Herrin runs elite ground-ball rates and Gaddis is a jack-of-all-trades who limits walks and barrels.

Game 6 (if necessary)

Matchup: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Monday, October 21st at 5:08pm ET*
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: TBS, Max
*Start time will be 7:38pm ET if NLCS Game 7 is not necessary.

As noted earlier, David will discuss the offense in greater detail later, but it’s worth another thought about their splits (since this is a familiar matchup anyway). While not as extreme as Detroit, Cleveland employs quite a few platoons. David Fry and Kyle Manzardo typically split time at DH, Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel trade off in right field, and even Austin Hedges has shaken loose a few ABs at catcher from Bo Naylor — who went hitless in the ALDS.

Lane Thomas has delivered huge hits and earned everyday playing time in center field, though he also has massive platoon splits and could be lifted for a lefty if the situation calls for it. Brayan Rocchio has held steady at shortstop.

Game 7 (if necessary)

Matchup: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Tuesday, October 22nd at 7:38pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: TBS, Max

If the Yankees get pushed to the brink in this series, this is where we would most likely see Gil deployed in a piggyback role. Of course, there's a lot of risk inherent in that possibility, but Gil's upside is too good to turn down the possibility if Schmidt runs into trouble. If he can go at least two innings in relief, that should set up the suddenly strong back end of the bullpen quite nicely. It honestly would not be surprising to see them turn to one of their better relievers to escape any jam for Schmidt early before even thinking about Gil.

Much like the Royals, the Guardians are a team that can shut you down with their pitching if you aren’t careful. Like the Yankees, their offense is largely dependent on their largest stars. Recent history has proven that teams generally need a solid starting staff to win the World Series; if the Bombers can take advantage of their overreliance on the bullpen, they should break through. There is likely a penalty to the pitching team when there’s too much familiarity from seeing the same relievers over and over again within a short span of time.

Now it falls to you, dear readers. Sixty-three percent of you correctly predicted the Yankees to win the ALDS in four games, so remember: with great power comes great responsibility. What will the next series bring? Make sure to vote in the poll below!