2023 Yankees Draft Preview: High school players to watch

It is somewhat foolish to predict who the Yankees will draft in the first round on Sunday, July 9th, because, let’s face it, they don’t know who they are drafting. The scouting department can lock in on a player for the top of their board, but picking at No. 26 means the team won’t know who is available to them until draft night. They must then feel comfortable with a pool of players, hitters and pitchers from the college or high school ranks.

Recent history indicates the Yankees may like athletic, up-the-middle hitters who ideally bat left-handed. This year’s draft class is strong in high school bats who seem to fit somewhere in the back half of the first round, compensation round, or early second, which means the Yankees may feel good about their chances of getting one of those players when their turn to pick arrives. They also have one of the smallest bonus pools to work with, so they likely will get one shot at drafting a high school player they want, and they must be certain he will sign. Early mock drafts are connecting the Yankees to these players, so here is a look at 10 high school hitters to keep in mind as draft night approaches.

SS George Lombard, Jr. (Gulliver Prep HS, Miami, age 18)

Commitment: Vanderbilt

Why the Yankees would take him:

Lombard Jr. has major league bloodlines, as his father played in parts of six seasons and is now the bench coach for the Detroit Tigers. With average tools across the board, and perhaps above-average power and speed, Lombard Jr. has the type of athleticism that could make him a thumper at shortstop or he could slide over to third base. At 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, the right-handed hitter could see his power develop into a plus tool.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

Lombard has been closing holes in his game over the last year, but has he come far enough with his contact tool to be the first pick of the Yankees? Vanderbilt commitments can be difficult to break, and having a relatively small bonus pool might send the Yankees in another direction. Would they nitpick and take a lefty hitter who is comparable?

RHP/1B Bryce Eldridge (Madison HS, Vienna, Va., age 18)

Commitment: Alabama

Why the Yankees would take him:

Power. Eldridge offers power from the mound and power from the left side of the plate. The Yankees likely would take him as a hitter, and, while it would be unfair to compare them as athletes, Eldridge would offer upside reminiscent of last year’s first rounder Spencer Jones. Baseball America calls it “massive raw power that is near the best in the prep class,” and Eldridge has already displayed it to all fields as the MVP of the World Cup-winning 18U national team.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

The Yankees have a good idea about very tall hitters, but with those long levers comes swing-and-miss concerns, and he could be a below-average hitter who’s not able to get to his power against pro pitching. Unlike Jones, he doesn’t have the ability to play center field, so if Eldridge is a corner player, either at first or in the outfield, that puts a lot more pressure on him to hit. Would the Yankees be willing to develop him as a two-way player if that’s what he wants to do?

SS Walker Martin (Eaton HS, Colorado, age 19)

Commitment: Arkansas

Why the Yankees would take him:

Martin has at least average tools across the board, and his power might be a tick above that. At 6-foot-2 and 188 pounds, he’s got room to fill out and get stronger, but he’s already a very good athlete who is also a quarterback prospect in football. MLB.com says “scouts think he has the chance to hit, with plenty of power, from the left side of the plate.” He’s also coming off a bonkers senior season, and though he has a small sample against top competition in showcases, he’s fared well in them.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

Older high school players can sometimes slide because draft models favor those on the younger side. The last older high school player the Yankees drafted, Anthony Seigler, has struggled with injuries, and that has slowed the development that already started on the later side. Martin’s size may make him destined for third base, and the Yankees may be looking for someone more certain to stay up the middle.

C/1B Ralphy Velasquez (Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS, age 18)

Commitment: Arizona State

Why the Yankees would take him:

MLB.com calls Velasquez “a strong and physical left-handed hitter who has the chance to be an impact bat in the middle of a big league lineup one day.” He’s performed well against top competition and in front of evaluators, and his swing is mature, legitimate, and geared to drive the baseball against good pitching. He could be an above-average hitter with plus power, and there is a strong chance he can stick at catcher, where his arm is already rated as a plus tool.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

If Velasquez is a catcher, then he’s an up-the-middle player who can impact the baseball on offense. If he struggles to catch in the pros, then he’s a first baseman who has to mash. He might do that, but questions about his athleticism or ability to catch could cause the Yankees to pass.

SS Kevin McGonigle (Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, PA, age 18)

Commitment: Auburn

Why the Yankees would take him:

McGonigle is one of the elite pure hitters in the 2023 high school class, according to Baseball America. On every stage, against all competition, he has hit, and he has a chance to get to enough power to put up double-digit home run totals in professional baseball. As a left-handed hitter, the chances of seeing his mature approach translate to run production would increase once he got to play his home games at Yankee Stadium. He’d be a good pick for the Yankees if he’s available at 26.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

McGonigle is maybe-but-not-definitely a shortstop in professional baseball long term. He still is likely to play up the middle, but if the Yankees aren’t convinced he will hit for power he might be less of a candidate for them. He’s on the radar of teams who pick before the Yankees for sure, with perhaps the Red Sox and Mariners having interest.

OF Dillon Head (Homewood-Flossmoor HS, Flossmoor, IL, age 18)

Commitment: Clemson

Why the Yankees would take him:

Head is one of the top athletes in the draft and a no-doubt center fielder. He’s also considered an above-average hitter, and MLB.com thinks “few players in this draft can match his combination of hitting ability and speed.” He commonly gets top-of-the-scale ratings for his speed, and he puts it to use as a plus defender. This is an exciting player who hits from the left side.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

Head’s power is a projection, and it appears to be his only below-average tool. How much will that count against the other things he can do? If the Yankees don’t believe he will come into over-the-fence pop, they may pass for someone who gives them more confidence in that department.

OF Jonny Farmelo (Westfield HS, Chantilly, VA, age 18)

Commitment: Virginia

Why the Yankees would take him:

He’s athletic, a left-handed hitter, and he plays up the middle, which checks some important Yankee boxes. Farmelo is “a plus runner, which helps him on both sides of the ball, and has shown the ability to find the barrel consistently and drive the ball to all fields,” according to MLB.com. His name is coming up more frequently as the draft approaches, and he could be the kind of player who goes earlier than people expect. At 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, he could come into more power soon and do it as a center fielder.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

There may be players who offer slightly stronger offensive profiles who slot above him on draft night. If the power tool is below average or the Yankees feel he is a gap hitter at the next level, that could matter. As a Virginia commit, he could also have some questions about signability, as players headed to that school have been difficult to lure to the professional ranks in the past.

C Blake Mitchell (Sinton (Texas) HS, age 18)

Commitment: LSU

Why the Yankees would take him:

Baseball America says Mitchell has “big-time lefthanded power and double-plus arm strength” behind the plate. He’s the top high school catcher in the draft, and there aren’t questions about whether he will stay at the position. He’s polished defensively, he’s caught plenty of high-level velocity, and he started for Team USA’s 18U team last year, a program that has churned out prospect after prospect. This could be Austin Wells without the defensive questions.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

The recent history of high school catching in the draft is not pretty, but there is still a good chance Mitchell is gone before the Yankees pick. There are questions about Mitchell’s pure hit tool, so are the Yankees confident they can develop him as a catcher and a high-level hitter? Even though his struggles have been due in part to injuries, would Anthony Seigler’s performance in pro ball cause them to think twice about taking a high school catcher who will be almost 19 on draft night?

SS Colt Emerson (Glenn HS, New Concord, Ohio, age 17)

Commitment: Auburn

Why the Yankees would take him:

Baseball America says “the 6-foot-1, 197-pound infielder is a pure hitter, with a smooth and compact left-handed swing that stays in the zone a long time.” He’s got at least average tools across the board, with hit being above power right now. A shortstop now, Emerson is a lock to stay on the dirt, and he has already shown he can slide over to third base where he performed admirably for Team USA 18U. He’s a left-handed hitter with a great track record for strike zone judgment.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

They may not get the chance. The Guardians pick at 23, and their draft model will love that Emerson is 17 on draft night. The Ohio kid will be attractive for many teams in the latter part of the first round. It would also be interesting to see what the Yankees thought of his defensive future and if that factored into choosing him.

SS Samuel Stafura (Walter Panas HS, Cortlandt Manor, NY, age 18)

Commitment: Clemson

Why the Yankees would take him:

It’s downright eerie how many times Anthony Volpe’s name gets brought up when Stafura is talked about, but it goes to show there are real Volpe vibes here. A kid in the Yankees’ backyard, Stafura is currently the hot name connected to the team in mock drafts. In recent Yankee draft history, where there’s smoke there’s fire. They were connected to players like Volpe, Trey Sweeney, and Spencer Jones for weeks or months in their pre-draft cycles, and that’s happening now with Stafura. The Yankees have no reason to play coy about their interest if they don’t think he’ll be selected before them, and they seem to be making him a clear priority. With terrific athleticism, a no-doubt future at shortstop, increasing strength and pop, and plus speed, Stafura is an exciting prospect, and he has drawn praise for his makeup as well.

Why the Yankees wouldn’t take him:

Is Stafura more Volpe or Cito Culver? That may not be a fair question, but all three are or were high school shortstops who hailed from New York or New Jersey. These “cold weather bats” could have higher variance outcomes, or the Yankees could feel like they got a chance to know the player better and get more looks at him and that might weigh heavily in the evaluation.