FanPost

The Case Against Trading for Soto



I called it the Hunger Games, and I wasn't kidding. I do think every team should be looking in on doing a deal for Soto, if they are serious about being competitive. Kick the tires on the deal at the very least.

I do not want anyone to think that I will not celebrate a trade for Soto, because, should it happen, it would be a very attractive lineup, and would address the over righthandedness of the lineup, and would be very sexy.

Lineup with Soto:

  1. LeMahieu - 2B
  2. Judge - RF
  3. Soto - LF
  4. Stanton - DH
  5. Rizzo - 1B
  6. Donaldson - 3B
  7. Hicks - LF
  8. IKF - SS
  9. Trevino - C
Note: Gleyber is gone in the trade for Soto. As is Gallo, one way or the other. And Patrick Corbin is maybe the most expensive Swingman/Long guy in the history of the game.


That looks, uhm... amazing? Even for IKF haters.


Now, the title of this FanPost is The Case Against Soto, so enough with the case for.


The Case Against:

First, let's be sure we're talking basic facts. This is the best estimate of the Yankees current salary and contract situation.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hl2xgQQReB8qPSoa2YAaDcBfkw0qYeFQFizVP3m2JZs/edit#gid=1520401900


Next year's Yankees will likely look a lot like this year's Yankees, with Stanton, Donaldson, Rizzo*, LeMahieu, Hicks, IKF, Higgy/Trevino, all in the mix. Oh wait, there's a 6'7" hole there, because Aaron Judge is a free agent at the conclusion of the season. Rizzo can opt out, as well. Gleyber would be back as well. So, a very similar team, only the brightest star on the team could walk.

The pitching is a bit more interesting: Cole, Sevy, Monty, and Nestor are all under contract or Arb eligible, as is Domingo German. Taillon is a Free Agent, and I suspect will not be back unless at a similar pay level as he's currently on. Lot of prospects who could enhance the rotation in his slot, from Luis Gil, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, etc.

The Big Savings is in the bullpen. Chapman gone, replaced with Clay Holmes. Not sure what Clay will get next year, maybe $5M, but that's still $11M off Chapman's 2022 salary. Gone, Britton, replaced with King. King is A1, so he probably bumps to $3M, which is still $11M off Bitton's 2022 salary. That's $22M saved. Also out are Chad Green ($4M and Miguel Castro ($2.62M), though replaced with Loaisiga's A2, maybe for $2.2. Peralta gets a bump in his A4, off a base of $2.1m. Round that out with Ryan Weber taking the Lucas Luetge role in his A1 season, and the return of the kid from Tom's River and Albert Abreu in their second years of service, for $725K. I figure there's roughly $25-30M to be saved in the BP, depending on how negotiations with all the arbs goes.

This team is over the second luxury threshold this year, so... it all depends on Hal's tolerance/desire.


Unless Hal is possessed by the Ghost of George, adding Soto's two years of Arb (already at $17M, liable to jump beyond $20 next year), Judge is gone. There are enough open holes (at least one outfielder, maybe), that adding $25M for Soto plus $30+M for Judge just doesn't seem realistic while Cole, Stanton, Donaldson, and then Soto occupy the roster. As great as Soto is, I, like a lot of folks, enjoy the Judge experience immensely, and will die a bit on the inside to see him in another uniform. Especially in Dodger blue, Giants orange, Houston's tequilla sunset or Boston's red socks (Hyperbole, I know). So, that's one trade off.

Second tradeoff is Gleyber. Gleyber's return to relevance, age, and two remaining years of control make him a valuable trade chip, and the kind of player I'd like to see hit his breakout or bust season in pinstripes, because I think it could be a very good one.

The third tradeoff might be the man who started Yankees Mustache Mania, AL All Star, Nestor Cortes. If watching Nasty Nestor go out the door wouldn't hurt you, you're not a Yankees fan. Or you're already dead on the inside. It's fine if true.


The fourth tradeoff is Anthony Volpe. Staten Island kid, every scout loves him, SS/2B, projected for NEXT YEAR. At 22. Here's what Bowden said about him before the Futures Game, in an article titled "Top Ten hitters Jim Bowden can't wait to watch"

I’m most excited to see Volpe because I missed him during my spring training tour and people in the Yankees organization, and throughout baseball, can’t stop talking about him... I want to see for myself how Volpe stacks up with (the shortstops passed on in the 2022 free agent market, and the upcoming FA season) from a talent perspective.

and after:

Volpe was impressive in batting practice and infield practice, showing off his exit velocity at the plate and his soft hands at shortstop. He also flashed his blazing speed. There is no doubt about his plus tools across the board. He didn’t impress in the game, striking out both times he came to the plate. I noticed in both at-bats his eye level was moving up and down too much while the pitch was arriving, which is an easy fix, but it probably cost him Saturday. However, Volpe, 21, still oozed talent and stood out despite his game performance.

Plus tools across the board, and elsewhere it has been noted that he has the sixth tool, baseball brain stuff. I do believe that prospects have high failure rates. Demonstrably provable. But the Yankees have developed: Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and Gleyber Torres, so more than absurdly tall outfielders, they have a track record of developing middle infielders. If Volpe is the real deal, would be a shame to see him do it in Washington, or wherever the new owners might move the team.

The next part is: Luis Castillo. The trade capital required to get Soto would eliminate the Yankees from the Luis Castillo sweepstakes. That feels more necessary to this team, ahead of getting an outfielder.

The last piece is the aging curve. DRS liked Soto last year, but hates him this year. UZR liked him last year, but has hated him every other year. OAA thinks he's had two good years in the outfield, 2019 and 2021, but has been below average to miserable the rest. Inside Edge only has through 2019, but his range is already poor, even in a season where he was considered decent by other metrics, 2019. I've been enjoying the leather flashing this year, and slotting him into the left field ocean at Yankee Stadium feels like a recipe for disaster. And he's only 23, so it's unlikely that he's going to develop into a plus outfielder, particularly after he's extended.

I lied, the last last thing is Boras. Yankees would maybe have 3 days to negotiate an extension with Soto during a trade. Boras is pretty strongly anti-extension, calling them Snuff Contracts to hold down the value of contracts and avoid the free market. Say the Yankees cannot extend Soto. Then, you've traded some portion of Volpe, Nestor, Gleyber, pitching prospects, and Judge for 2 years of Soto. Maybe the Martian lands then, but the Yankees have probably traded him to get Soto's arb years.

When I use this framework, I would much rather have Judge, Gleyber, Nestor, Volpe, and be waiting on the Martian to land. I'd much rather have two years of Castillo, plus Judge. Even if Judge is going to age ugly. There, I said it.

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