I will start off by stating the obvious: the Yankees should've signed Judge longterm before the regular season started.
Reportedly they offered 213.5 million (30.5 per) over seven years starting from 2023. That is comparable to the extension signed by Betts in 2020 after the trade to the Dodgers, which should be around market value. However, Betts signed a 12 year extension through his age 40 season. Usually with contracts it is; how longer the term, how lower the AAV. The Yankees' offer wasn't that long and was basically the same AAV as Betts. I think their offer should be more in line with the contract that Arenado got 275 million over 9 years. Furthermore, the prices have risen the last year for the top free agents (see: Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer). Without a doubt Judge will be one of the top (if not THE top) free agents the upcoming offseason.
Since 2016 he only trails Mike Trout (40.6), Mookie Betts(40.6), Jose Ramirez (36.6), Francisco Lindor (33.5), Nolan Arenado (32.1), Jose Altuve (31.6), Freddie Freeman (30.5) and Paul Goldschmidt (28.7) in fWAR, with 28.3. His WRC+ of 155 trails only Mike Trout in that timespan.
Those numbers are even with missing some time due to injuries. His availibility, injury concern and his size could be a risky situation, but if you look at the numbers he is a top 10 player in all of MLB.
The problem that the Yankees have is that they don't seem to trust Hicks in CF anymore after his injuries. Therefore, they play Judge in CF. He is a gifted RF who can hold his own in CF, and is returning their trust with OAA of 0. This further increases his value, as CF'ers aren't that easy to come by. Ofcourse he isn't going to sign as a CF but he is showing that he can handle himself in CF.
I sincerely hope that the Yankees (Hal) get their head out of their assess and pony up the cash before some other team will do it. You have one of the most marketable guys (maybe outside of Ohtani and Trout?) on your team, who has his own fanzone in RF bleachers. He should be the next Yankee Captain with a deserving contract. Probably more around 8 years 280 million right now.
We will see how this season plays out and if he gets some (personal) hardware at the end of the season.
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