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Impact Trade Options at the 2020 Deadline

Every August 31st there are a few noticeable trades made. This is the last chance until the winter for sellers to gain another lottery ticket prospect or two and gain some salary relief. For teams in the playoff hunt this is the last chance to make a splash and upgrade their chance for a championship. However, being that August 31st is usually the deadline for waiver trades and a month has already passed from the non waiver trade deadline most trades made in August are not high profile. Every now and then a Justin Verlander slips through waivers and becomes a huge difference maker. With the shortened season not starting until a week before the usual trade deadline the date has been pushed back a month accordingly. This deadline has the potential to be a wild one with the deadline coming much sooner; essentially coming at the halfway mark compared to the two thirds mark. I expect the Yankees to be right in the middle of the commotion. I will address the three biggest questions regarding who the Yankees could target: What will their needs be? Who will be available? How will minor league players be evaluated with no season?

The question of need is one that will change as the season goes on. Looking at the past few trade deadlines to see trends we see the Yankees have been mostly active one way or another. The 2016 deadline ultimately helped them get to where they are today. They turned two relievers into their star shortstop and a solid backup outfielder / trade chip for Paxton. They turned two fading stars (Beltran and McCann) into pieces that later helped them land Paxton and Stanton. The revamp paid dividends immediately and turned the Yankees into buyers the next two summers. In 2017 we saw the additions of The Toddfather, the return of Robertson, as well as adding Kahnle, Garcia, and Gray. In 2018 it was Britton, Happ, Lynn and the lower profile Luke Voit that were added and made contributions. 2019 saw the Yankees jump quickly in June and grab Edwin Encarnación from Seattle. This seemed like it would be the first of more high profile moves but the prices at the deadline were to high for Cashman and it turned out to be the lone standout acquisition during the season.

The 2020 Yankees have depth at several positions. Their outfield is already jammed so I can not see them spending prospect capitol or sparing salary space for another outfielder. While the bullpen is top notch, the Yanks have shown in the past that they like to grab an extra arm for the playoff push. In the infield there are more question marks. Urshela will be great in the field but can he have another solid season at the dish (I think Yes!) to concrete himself as the third basemen going forward? Will LeMahieu be a Yankee in 2021? Where will Andujar end up on the field? Will Voit prove that his production with the Yankees before his injury midway through last season was real and that he was not just Fluke Voit? How will Higashioka do as Gary’s backup? Also of big importance is what will our rotation look like in 2021 with Tanaka and Paxton both set to hit free agency this winter? With all these questions it is obvious that the Yankees will be active this deadline.

With everyone being tied for first place on July 23rd, there is still some uncertainty over who will be sellers and who will be buyers. With that being said, when looking at the league teams seem to fall into one of four groups: buyers, sellers, probable sellers and teams that could go either way depending on their first 20-30 games.

Sellers

Buyers

Probable Sellers

Could go either way

Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Marlins, Pirates, Giants, Rockies

Yankees, Twins, Astros, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Philly’s, Dodgers

Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rangers

Rays, Indians, White Sox, Angels, Athletics, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Padres

With so much upcoming uncertainty I will focus on the definite (on paper at least) sellers. The NL central is completely up for grabs with 4/5 teams having more than a legit shot at winning the division. Right now the Reds, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers would all fall into the buyers category but I expect at least one team to fall out of the race and become a seller. The Padres, Diamondbacks and White Sox all have some good young talent who could easily get hot for 60 games and push them into serious contention. The Rays are a mysterious organization so I do not want to classify them as ‘buyers’ even though they are a probable playoff team. The Indians are a solid roster on paper but it seems like they want to sell, sell, sell. Boston and the Yankees will not be making a high profile trade any time soon although I could see them moving some salary if they fall out of contention. I do not see the Blue Jays or Rangers as sellers after making splashes this offseason. However if they fall out of contention they might move some older pieces for future gain. None of the buyers will be looking to move any major league talent as they are all poised to make a serious run at the title. This leaves us with eight teams to look at.

Baltimore Orioles- Alright lets be honest, Peter Angelos will not be sending any help to his rival in New York. Now with that said there is not much of interest on their roster anyhow. Going into the 2020 season there was one player I would have loved to see the Yankees target: Trey Mancini. However in light of his colon cancer diagnosis he will not be a factor in 2020 and it would not make sense for the Orioles to move their young slugger now. Besides him the other options are few and far between. Jose Iglesias could be an interesting glove first backup infielder who could give Gleyber and LeMahieu a breather down the stretch. Richard Bleier, Hunter Harvey, Alex Cobb and John Means all have some degree of intrigue but I do not see the two sides coming together for a deal.

Kansas City Royals- Now here is a likely bottom feeder with some interesting chips. Danny Duffy has been connected to the Yankees at different times through the past few years. Signed through 2021 Duffy would not only give the Yankees an added boost this year but would be nice insurance for if Paxton and/or Tanaka walk. Hunter Dozier, a long time top prospect who lost some of his luster as he didn’t advance with his age, finally broke out last year. Always known to hit the ball hard, Dozier finally put the ball in the air and was a Statcast darling. Adding him would free up one or two of Voit, Ford and Andujar for another trade. A reunion with Ian Kennedy would fit the narrative of Yankees hogging top end relievers. Someone who could give the Yankees some certainly at the keystone past 2020 would be Whit Merrifield. Not only does he hate the Astros, but he also plays at an all star level. The league leader in hits the past two seasons also added 99 stolen bases over the last 3 seasons (although just 20 coming last season). Merrifield is signed through 2022 with a team option in 2023 and in turn would cost a nice prospect package. Even though there were no signs of slowing down in 2019 he turned 31 in January and is no sure bet to keep his all star level production going. He would provide some insurance if LeMahieu walks and could push DJ to first base for 2020.

Detroit Tigers- The Tigers do not seem like they will be contenders in 2020 but do have a nice farm system putting them in a position to make a run in the near future. With some solid starters on their roster, they have the opportunity to cash in and grab another few high end long term chips. Matthew Boyd, Michael Fulmer and to some degree Spencer Turnbull all have upside but also come with their own question marks. However in a season where depth will be tested, they could really put a contender over the edge. And maybe, just maybe if we are lucky we get a reunion with supernova Ivan Nova (lol).

Seattle Mariners- Nothing to see here folks. The Mariners farm system has been on the uptick but it’s hard to see them adding to their prospect crop by trading away their major league talent. No one on the roster seems like a good fit. Maybe they could convince the Mets to make another swap.

Miami Marlins- Since the new Jeter-faced ownership group has taken over the Marlins have cleaned house and hosted their farm system. Last season they saw multiple young starters come up and have varying levels of success. They have shown that they are willing to move them for the right price. Their most successful pitcher of last season, Gallen, was shipped off to the Arizona Diamondbacks for promising young shortstop, Jazz Chisholm, last season. They still have Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez to go along with former Yankee Caleb Smith. If Higgy doesn’t show he’s ready for backup duty, Francisco Cervelli could make for a nice reunion. Cervelli has a down year in 2019 after putting together his best campaign in 2018. He has had six concussions in the past and you have to wonder how much time he has left behind the plate. Jonathan Villar was dropped to save money by the Orioles last offseason despite having the highest WAR total in the organization during the 2019 season. The Marlins smartly picked him up and could look to flip him at the deadline.

Pittsburg Pirates- The Pirates have already sold off a lot of their chips as they look to help their rebuild. Three interesting chips still remain in Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Gregory Polanco. The Yankees don’t have a need for another outfielder in Polanco but bringing in a slugger like Bell would give the Yankees the stability at first base that they have lacked the past few seasons. Musgrove, a former top prospect with the Astros has put together decent numbers over parts of four seasons. He has not turned into the ace the pirates hoped when they got him as part of the Gerrit Cole trade robbery but is none the less a solid starting option.

San Francisco Giants- Not much to see here. Some interesting bounce back candidates and role players in Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and former Oriole Kevin Gausman. Jeff Samardzija has always been linked to the Yankees and had a nice bounce back season in 2019. Former ace Johnny Cueto returned from from his Tommy John surgery recovery last season but looked rusty for sure. He could be an interesting piece if he shows he could still contribute.

Colorado Rockies- And last but not least we have the Yankee’s AAAA affiliate, the Colorado Rockies. Over the last few years the Yankees have added multiple Rockies, most notably Ottovino, LeMahieu and Tauchman. Better yet, I believe there is still more talent to mine! The Yankees have been rumored to have interest in Jon Gray for years now. A hard thrower with excellent stuff, he has never been able to put together the results to back his stuff. Having to pitch in Yankee Stadium would be more pitcher friendly environment (I never thought I’d say that) than up in the mountains and with their analytical prowess the Yankees could turn him into an ace. German Marquez is another starter with top notch stuff that could benefit from a change of scenery. For the last few years Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson have been talked about as future every day players but have been blocked by veterans. Ohh and they have a guy named Nolan Arenado who is pretty decent at this whole baseball thing.

Maybe eventually hopefully available?- Trevor Bauer of the Reds, Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks, Kirby Yates of the Padres, Corey Kluber and Mike Minor of the Rangers could all bring back a nice package for their respective teams if they find themselves out of the playoff race by the deadline.

The last big question that still looms is how will teams be able to scout and evaluate minor league talent in a season that will not feature minor league baseball. Players in the minor leagues are constantly developing and flaming out so it will be interesting to see how some of the Yankees lower level prospects will be valued. As for prospects that are closer to the show, I could see Michael King or Jonathan Loaisiga being part of a package for a rental arm like Robbie Ray, Trevor Bauer, Mike Minor, or Cole Hamels if available. Maybe package them together for pitchers with an extra year of control in 2021 like Lance Lynn or Jon Gray. When it comes to Clarke Schmidt or Deivi Garcia I do not see Cashman moving either of them unless it’s part of a package for a young controllable proven starter. The problem with that is I do not see any becoming available. Perhaps the Indians make Mike Clevinger (signed through 2022) available or the Cubs fall out of the race and decide to dismantle parts and make Kyle Hendricks (signed through 2023 w/ vesting option 2024) available. I do not know if I would actually pull the trigger on either of those deals anyhow. Someone I would happily part with either of them for but do not see as a reality would be the Reds’ Luis Castillo (signed through 2023). When it comes to top prospect Jasson Dominguez, it would not make sense to sign him only to trade him before he even plays in a minor league game so he is not going anywhere. At the major league level the organization could look to trade from some of their depth. Frazier, Andujar, Voit, Ford and Tauchman all figure to get plenty of at bats but are not guaranteed a starting position. Any of these players could be moved for a need down the road. Something that the Yankees have been excellent at is evaluating their own talent. It’s rare Cashman regrets a trade and even when he does, usually the other side is not any happier. I trust that the Yankess will have the advantage of being able to see some of their best and closest prospects more up close and personally which will lead to Cashman pulling out a few ninja moves.

If we make it to the 2020 trade deadline with a season still being played expect to see a lot of movement across the league. With more teams in contention than ever, the bottom dwellers have plenty of incentive to move some chips. Depending on what happens to the Yankees with health and regression, there will be plenty of options available. Jon Gray, Josh Bell, Ian Kennedy, Matthew Boyd, Michael Fullmer, Danny Duffy, McMahon and Garrett Hampton would be my ideal targets right now to help not only in 2020 but 2021 and beyond as well. Who would you like to see get a change of scenery and don the Pinstripes? Who would you like to see the Yankees give a hard pass to? Who would you be willing to give up?

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