clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The Yankees will win the 2020 World Series: An Extremely Scientific Theory

A pattern has emerged which would lead to good things for the Yankees next season.

MLB: ALCS-New York Yankees at Houston Astros Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Sometime during Game Four of the ALCS, I proposed a theory in the Pinstripe Alley staff chat: the 2019 ALCS was a repeat of the 2010 ALCS.

While not every game played out in the same way, there are a number of parallels. The Yankees were playing a team from Texas and started the series on the road. The won Game One in an impressive fashion. (2019 was general domination, while 2010 was a late inning comeback.) The opponent then came back to win the next three in a row, all in a frustrating manner for the Yankees. Then with their backs against the wall in Game Five, the Yankees pulled out a win, not only keeping the series alive, but doing so in a fashion that could lead you to wonder if a comeback was in the cards. Those hopes were then dashed in Game Six, as the opponent clinched a spot in the World Series.

It’s not a perfect fit, but it’s close. However, it’s also not the only pair of recent seasons that match up.

Following the 2010 ALCS loss, the Yankees made it back to the playoffs. They took on the Tigers in the 2011 ALDS, losing the series in five games. It was a brutal series loss, as they actually outscored Detroit, with the three losses coming by a combined four runs.

Another brutal year that ended with a ALDS loss was 2018. While that series didn’t go the distance, they lost to the archrival Red Sox after taking one of the opening two games on the road. Again, not a perfect match, but there are some parallels.

Let’s follow that trend a year further. In 2012, the Yankees reached the ALCS after a dramatic ALDS victory. They then lost to a team with Justin Verlander.

Following this pattern, 2012’s match would be 2017. What happened that year? An ALCS loss to a team with Justin Verlander after a dramatic ALDS victory.

We can take this pattern even further. The 2013 and 2016 seasons would be the next set of paired seasons. Guess what happened in each of them? The Yankees missed the playoffs all together.

This slightly deviates with the last two years, 2014 and 2015, but we can stretch and make it fit. For a lot of 2014, the Yankees were positioned in the Wild Card spots before they went just one game over .500 over the last couple months to fall short. In 2015, they did finish in a Wild Card spot, but they went 29-31 from August to drop to that after leading the AL East for a decent part of the season. In both seasons, they didn’t reach the ALDS.

So where am I going with this? The five years from 2010 on have a match with the five years preceding and including 2019. If this pattern extends for a sixth set of years, that means the 2020 season would be matched up with 2009. Therefore, according to my extremely scientific research, the Yankees are going to win the 2020 World Series. You heard it here first.