FanPost

Who Gets the Ball in the Wild Card Game

For the sake of argument, there are 3 pitchers in the Yankees rotation who may get the ball in the wild card game. Severino, Happ, and Tanaka, all have an argument to be made for why they should get the mound in that game.

The first, and the easiest for me to make my mind up about is Sevy. Severinos recent struggles are well documented, he has given up 35 ER in 45 innings in the second half. He's pitched to a 6.95 second half ERA, opponents are slugging an astounding .554 against him, and they're hitting over .300. We all know what he is capable of, he came into this year our ace, but he just isn't pitching well enough to get the ball in a single game. I know we could put him on the mound, and any given day, he could throw a gem, but I'm more painfully aware that currently, he is likely to lose us a game, and this game simply cannot be lost. His season this year, is a mirror of last years, he was hot coming down the stretch, making a push for some Cy Young consideration last season. This year, he started off looking like a Cy Young candidate, and has floundered since the all star game. He may be our future, but he shouldn't be allowed to figure it out with everything on the line.

The other two are such a toss up for me, and I'll make a case for both.

First, Tanaka has done Tanaka things. The thousand foot view shows a solid season, 11-5 with a 3.61, a good WHIP, all in all a very respectable season. But this discounts the fact that his first half ERA was 4.54, and he had some very bad outings. He seemed to be just a slightly more consistent Sonny Gray in the first half, giving us some great games, and others looking completely over matched. But that changed after the All-Star break, and he has been make strides up to his last start. Since the break, he has a 2.31, and opponents numbers across the board have been declining against him. The most encouraging of metrics, is that his ground ball rate is up almost 8%. Playing in a shoe box, that can be very, very important. Tanaka is hot, in his last 9 starts, he only has two starts that weren't quality starts. In that same span, he had a complete game 3 hit shut out, a 6 inning 3 hit shutout, an 8 inning 3 hit shutout, and a smattering of one run games. His last outing, he had 10 K's, and induced 12 ground balls vs 5 fly balls. Things seem to be clicking, and I like what I'm seeing. For my money, I never remember him being as dominant as he has looked his last two outings, let's hope he keeps this going.

Next is Happ. Since coming over, he is 5-0 in 7 starts with a 3.10 ERA. His WHIP with the Yankees is just over 1, and his numbers are all respectable. Another 1000 foot view, another solid season, but again, it is when things are getting done that is important. He really only has one BAD outing with the Yankees, the rest have been solid, or great. The only thing he struggles with is pitch count, he hasn't lasted longer than 7.0, and he has a few games with 100+ pitches with 6.0 or less innings pitched. If Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle were pitching how they were last year, this would scare me less, effective, even with a high pitch count wasn't a problem last year, although this year we are more exposed in that regard. All in all, his numbers are just a bit worse than Tanakas for the second half. His ground ball rate has decreased, which can be concerning, but it hasn't hurt him all that much. A very solid argument for Happ to get the nod.

So here is my proposal. Tanaka, is capable of going out and throwing a no-no come play off time, but there is more risk of a terrible, 6-R game from him. The team is staring down Chris Sale a few days later, a guy so good, that a gem from Tanaka, or Happ still might not be enough, and you wasted bullets from your stud. So start Tanaka in the wild card game, and tell Happ to stay ready. Keep Tanaka on a short leash, and be ready to bring Happ in when you need him. If you don't need him that means Tanaka threw a gem, and we move on. Which just means Happ can face off against Sale. If we need him, then we hopefully pulled Tanaka early enough to give us a chance, and when we get through, Sevy gets to face off against Sale. He has matched him before, and Sevy owns a lot of the Sox roster, with the exception of Moreland, and Benintendi. That means, CC against Price, Happ against whoever, and Tanaka against whoever. Effectively giving the two of them a better match up in the ALDS.

The Yankees rotation come playoff time, is actually quite impressive. The top of it isn't what other teams boast, but the depth is something they all envy. 1-4, are good solid pitchers, and they have a great bullpen to back them. Plus, Tanaka, and CC seem to come alive in the playoffs, which is something you can't say about a lot of players. Realistically, we could send any of our 4 pitchers to the mound for the wild card game, and they will give us a chance. That's a blessing that a lot of teams can't boast.

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