FanPost

Rotation??????


So you want a starting pitcher to provide a boost to your rotation?? Alright, let’s see what is needed and who is available shall we?

Now, we probably are looking for someone at least like a solid 3 or 4 (preferably 2/3), because in German, I believe we already have a person who slots in spot #5. If that is what we are looking for, we might as well not bother wasting our precious minor league talent. Furthermore, I think Yankees would be looking for someone established and a proven commodity, rather than a super young prospect, who is still looking to work his way in through the game.

Going with that assumption, let’s see which team could be potential trade partners first and then within each team let’s see who is available.

Right off the bat (pun unintended), looking at MLB standings – We can eliminate Cleveland, Houston, Angels, Seattle (what??), Atlanta, Philly, Washington, Milwaukee, St.Louis, Pittsburgh (surprisingly), Cubs, Arizona, Colorado, Toronto, Mets and of course Boston from being trade partners. Reason?? – Well most of these are the teams that are well over 0.500 record and still very much in contention for a playoffs spots, while a few others will simply not trade with us at all.

Besides the above list, though Dodgers are floundering, I suspect, they still have a hope that they can turn things around once folks start coming off their DL. Furthermore even if they are willing to throw in towel this year, they figure to be returning back next year and beyond since their window is open, so they would not trade their young cost controlled pitchers. They may look to dump Kershaw (potentially given he may opt-out of his contract, since he does not have a no-trade clause surprisingly), but that would put the Yankees over their luxury tax cap and it won’t fly with our owners. Maeda is potentially another option, but his ERA right now is already over 4.75 and it is not much of an upgrade over our internal options. Plus he is very cost controlled (only ~3M/yr) for another 4+years so though he has very less value, I don’t think Dodgers are giving up someone that can give them innings over the length of his contract

Additionally while Twins are slightly below 0.500, they are playing in a very weak division and surprisingly only 1.5GB Cleveland. Way too early for them to throw in the towel, so I don’t consider them to start trading away. But if they were to do so, I suspect only Kyle Gibson or Jake Odorizzi available. (Let’s come to these two later).

This reduces potential trade partners to – Rays, Orioles, Detroit, KC, White Sox, Oakland, Texas, SF, Reds, Marlins and San Diego. Among these Orioles have flat out said that they won’t trade within division (unless they can completely and totally fleece the other team, which frankly Cashman has too much brains to allow it to happen). So that reduces potential partners to only 6.

Now that we have established the teams, let’s look at who is available in these teams (with their 2018 ERA/FIP/WHIP/ERA+ in the brackets) –

1. Rays – Archer (5.64/4.31/1.405/73), Snell (3.12/4.03/1.038/132), Faria (5.09/4.84/1.254/81)
Snell just came up the system in 2016 and is very cost controlled that Rays are not giving him up. He has also be brilliant over that course of time, consider him untouchable. Similarly Faria made his debut last year. He is having his sophomore slump, but had a great debut season with a 3.43 ERA.
Archer is having a down year, but his career numbers are pretty good and he falls exactly in the bucket Yankees are looking for. He is also under contract till 2021 (9M team option in 2020 and 11M team option in 2021, which if good, will be exercised). Maybe Yankees can see something in him that they can fix. So Archer IS A TARGET.

2. Orioles – Gausman (3.18/4.3/1.196/135), Bundy (4.53/4.76/1.427/95), Cashner (4.84/5.75/1.5/89) and Cobb and Tillman (I am not wasting time with these numbers since they are atrocious + Tillman is on DL). Among these 3, I believe Yankees will not waste their time with Bundy or Cashner (especially Cashner due to his contract being bad for what he delivers). Bundy however is very young and extremely cost effective so Orioles may not trade him anyway. Gausman’s numbers this year is the best ever in his career and while he may be figuring it out, he has been constantly erratic over his years (career ERA & FIP is 4.1). So he is a bit of a speculation, but Orioles will parlay his latest numbers (and cost controlled till 2021) and demand sky, moon and sun for him, especially when trading within the division. So ultimately, I don’t think Yankees will trade for Gausman. Therefore it is quite unlikely that Orioles will be a trade partner for us.

3. Tigers – Fulmer (4.37/4.34/1.324/104), Boyd (3.21/3.62/1.048/142), Liriano (3.35/4.31/1.165/136), Fiers (4.73/5.22/1.299/97) and Zimmermann (on DL). Tigers are only 3GB Cleveland, but they are about to go on a brutal 28game stretch with just a 1 day off where they only get a 3game set against a team (White Sox) below them in the standings. Mid-way through this I expect them to make everyone available, though I suspect Fulmer may not be. However since 2016, Fulmer’s numbers by and large are trending in the wrong direction. The 4 factors that I have used above are all higher year over year, Walks have increased year over year, hits/9 has increased year over year. HR/9 dropped 2nd year, but jumped to highest this year. However SO is the highest it has been this year. Is that enough to go get him? This is more a question to Yankees scouts and pitching coaching group and whether they see something that they can tweak and help him improve. He is long term cost controlled pitcher (till 2023), so that’s an advantage. Ultimately Fulmer is a tossup based on what Yankees brass see in him and whether they think he can be improved (a.la McCarthy). He could be a potential TRADE TARGET.

Boyd – this is, by far, his best year by a very big margin. Across the board, his numbers are the best it has ever been. He is a pitcher who never crossed 100 in ERA+ or below 4.5 FIP till this year. Really unsure whether this is some sort of a Small Sample Size or he has managed to flip a switch. To be fair, he only pitched more than 100 innings (135) last year. He is on pace to easily break that mark this year, especially with the way he is going. (Side note – he was sent to Tigers in a package for David Price). He is a young and very cost controlled pitcher and I don’t think he will be available for the Yankees.

Liriano – He is old-34yrs old, but is pitching in a solid manner. He is set to be a FA after this year, so is a short term rental. His career numbers are also pretty decent (solid career FIP and right on cusp of average pitcher in terms of ERA+). His recent past barring a small sample in 2016 has not been great and his overall numbers are skewed by the stretch of being really good for 3years between 2013-2015. Unless we acquire him for really throw away pieces/flyers from our system, I don’t think Yankees are looking to acquire him.

Fiers – Fiers number are really not good across the board for 2018. He had some really good years between 2012-2015 ( a very shortened 2013), but lately his numbers are not great. He is also 32+ and while he is controlled for this year as well as 2019, he is not going to be good enough to meet Yankees’s requirements.

4. Royals – Junis (3.53/5.01/1.039/125), Duffy (6.51/6.19/1.66/68), Hammel (6.13/4.77/1.447/72), Kennedy (4.61/4.42/1.488/96), Skoglund (6.34/4.71/1.316/70). Junis is in his sophomore season and his numbers have generally improved in his 2nd yr. He is a young cost controlled good pitcher (as it currently stands). KC is not going to give him up now. The numbers for the rest of the rotation is a colossal disaster. If one wants to stretch, only Kennedy looks salvageable, but that is not a project Yankees are going to embark on (caveat of finding something that Yankees can tweak potentially applies, but probability is less). Therefore it is very unlikely that Yankees trade with KC for pitching.

5. White Sox – Shields (5.44/4.5/1.375/79), Lopez (2.44/4.93/1.128/176), Giolito (6.91/6.05/1.656/62), Carson Fulmer (6.23/6.97/1.747/69), Gonzalez (DL but 12.41 ERA!! ‘nuff said!!) – 60% of the rotation is young and are in their sophomore seasons or in 3rd year (Fulmer). As it stands, it looks like only Lopez has figured things out. His numbers have vastly improved pretty much across the board (except BB/9). We would love to have him, but we won’t be able to get him. Shields is seriously old and seriously bad (no-hitter bid aside, Sox still managed to lose that game). Nothing here for the Yankees to trade for, or can get! Not a trade partner.

6. Oakland – Manaea (2.11/3.53/0.723/201), Mengden (4.06/3.46/1.15/105), Triggs (5.31/4.79/1.333/80), Graveman (7.6/6.21/1.660/56), Cahill (on DL but before that 2.25/2.4/0.958/190), Anderson (8.16/6.01/2.023/53). This is Manaea’s 3rd year and it looks like he is pretty much putting together a Cy Young worthy year! I mean look at that WHIP and ERA+. He may suffer a Felix type of year because the A’s seems to be winning just 50% of his starts but his numbers are elite across the board. But here is the bad news – he is in his 3rd year and cost controlled for many years to come. A’s are not giving him up for now (knowing A’s, wait for a few years down the road and he will be available then, just not now).
Mengden – this is a really interesting candidate, his ERA isn’t great, but FIP and WHIP tells a very different story. His ERA+ is slightly above average. He is also a pitcher who hardly ever walks hitters (BB/9 is 1). For sake of time, I am not digging in too deep, but I suspect he has run into some bad luck. This is precisely the type of pitchers Yankees typically look for and go after (and try to buy cheap). Problem is he is another young cost controller pitcher who is in his 3rd year in the major leagues (and performing fairly well) and therefore A’s will not be giving him up. (honestly I wish they would, but it is probably a pipe dream).
Triggs – another pitcher in his 3rd year, but not great numbers across the board. Does not meet Yankees immediate requirement.
Graveman’s numbers are trending in the wrong direction since his start, over the past 5 years and does not meet our requirements.
Depending on extent of injury, Cahill may be the only availability here. Manaea is the crown jewel of this rotation and Mengden is the diamond in the rough! If Cashman works his magic, it will be awesome to add one of these two, but realistically I don’t think either are available. So it is quite unlikely that A’s trade with Yankees 2nd year in a row!

7. Texas – Hamels (3.48/4.83/1.277/134), Colon (3.32/4.86/0.900/141), Minor (4.73/4.55/1.2/99), Moore (7.82/5.38/2/60), Fister (4.06/5.27/1.46/116). Hamels ERA looks nice and shiny, but his other peripherals tells a different story. His FIP is below average, HR/9 is one of the highest in MLB and his BB/9 falls in "Poor" category. However his SO/9 is approaching "Excellent" mark. Given Yankees stadium is going to give up HRs, and looking at Hamels’s number, it may be good to pass on him. But if Cashman manages to get him for relatively mid-low prospects, he may take a flyer in Hamels.
Colon – How does he keep doing it?? He is 45, and still putting up respectable numbers, yes his FIP is high, but I guess that is due to his tendencies to pitching to contact and inducing weak groundballs. He also hardly walks batters (0.8 BB/9) and look at that WHIP- unbelievable for a starter. But his HR/9 is astronomical at 1.9 and again with his pitching speed and Yankees stadium, his pitches may end up being a batting cage practice. I don’t think Cashman is conducting that experiment again.
Minor – As evidenced by his career numbers, he is a mediocre pitcher (barring 1 year). There is nothing here that will interest Cashman! He passes here.
Moore – Look at the numbers! I will keep this simple – NO!!
Fister – Average ERA but a really bad FIP. The other peripherals are not encouraging either. Another candidate that I don’t think interests Cashman. Therefore no!
So from Rangers POV, Cashman may be interested only in Hamels (potentially), so there is only a slight Trade partnership possibility.

8. Giants – Blach (4.2/3.9/1.419/92), Stratton (4.6/3.96/1.302/84), Holland (4.79/4.84/1.282/80), Samardzija (6.94/6.28/1.714/56), Suarez (4.57/4.58/1.2/85), Cueto (on DL) and MadBum (on DL- expected return in May). Blach and Stratton are young and up-coming pitchers and are in their respective 3rd year. Their FIP and other peripherals will make Giants want to keep them around for some more time. OTOH Holland and The Shark are declining pitchers and not valuable to Yankees. The earliest Cueto can come is end of June. MadBum is the only one that Yankees may be interested in – A very likely trade Partner if Giants are willing.

9. Marlins – I will keep this simple – Every pitcher in the staff is less than 30. Only Straily with his shiny 5.54 ERA and even more glossy 8.69 FIP (YES 8.69, not a typo) is 29. All pitchers are young and most importantly super super cheap. Jeter isn’t offloading any more contracts. This is the Marlins’s type of roster. Unlikely!

10. Reds – 3 pitchers are again young, cheap and very cost controlled. Only Homer Bailey is 32 and someone that Reds will look to offload. Sadly though he has a line that reads like this – 5.59/6.17/1.448/72. PASS!

11. Padres – Richard (5.2/3.97/1.431/72), Ross (3.4/3.27/1.154/111), Lucchesi, Mitchell, Lauer, Perdomo – If you are wondering about the name Mitchell – yes he is our very own Bryan Mitchell. The other three pitchers whose stats are not included are all young cost controlled pitchers and in Lucchesi’s case, really great numbers, so Padres are not looking to let them go.
Richard’s – FIP may make you pause, but his other peripherals are not that great anyway so it is not going to be useful.
Ross – Now this one is worth following up! Great numbers, even better HR/9 (0.8). Below average BB/9, but excellent SO/9. This is a real diamond if we can manage to swing and it is quite possible he wont require as much and as highly prized prospects as Mad Bum. A very likely trade partner!

So in summary, after all that analysis – based on Yankees’s needs and availability – The only options I see are Bumgarner, Ross, Archer, Fulmer or Hamels. To stretch an outside possibility, there is a small chance we may be able to work something for Gausman, Liriano, Kennedy, Cahill. But these are much more remote possibility. Unless scouts and pitching coaches figure out something that can be tweaked and the pitcher suddenly made spectacular, this is not happening.

Best chances and ones that makes most sense – MadBum or Ross.

Thoughts??

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