FanPost

One Thing to Change this Offseason



The Yankees have had a great offseason. It is hard to argue with bringing in the reigning NL MVP, a veteran 2B at a cut rate, and trading from strong organizational depth for a 3B/2B option with MLB experience, and more upside to come.

The obvious area to look at is pitching, but I don’t think any of the impact arms that the Yankees were checking in on like Michael Fulmer or Chris Archer were available without attaching Estevan Florial or Gleyber Torres as part of the package. Gleyber was never going anywhere, and after seeing Florial play in spring training, and hearing veterans like Gardner and Sabathia talk about how impressive his work ethic and potential are I’m glad that the Yankees labeled him off limits.

I’ve heard several analyst including Keith Law from ESPN say that they would have preferred a Yankee deal that involved Clint Frazier over the deal that Pittsburgh got from Houston for Gerrit Cole. I could not ask the Yankees to add Andujar or Adams in the deal with Frazier for a pitcher coming off multiple seasons of mediocre results. Cole could return to his previous top of the rotation form, or could continue to be just an average pitcher who teases you with flashes of ace caliber stuff. Maybe Jake Odorizzi for a non-impact prospect would have been a good depth option, but I don’t know if the Rays trade him in division for such a small return, and again, Odorizzi isn’t the impact arm the Yankees are looking for. Lance Lynn, maybe, Alex Cobb, not at that price.

Maybe taking a run at JD Martinez, trading Aaron Hicks or Brett Gardner to San Francisco, and letting Stanton play LF everyday, while Martinez plays DH, with Judge in RF, that would have been fun, but a stretch under the current budget restrictions. I also think once all the defensive metrics are run this would not be as positive as I would dream of.

I think that the one thing I would have done is tried to force the issue on Manny Machado. Considering that the Yankees traded two of their top 20 prospects for Brandon Drury, who may or may not take a step forward, why not have used those same assets in a move toward Machado.

I know that Baltimore is loath to make a deal with the Yankees, but why not make it very hard for them to refuse.

What if the deal looked something like Chance Adams, Taylor Widener, Nick Solak, and the releasing the Rule 5 rights to both Nestor Cortes and Jose Mesa Jr.?

That is a lot to give up for one year of Machado… Lets look at three seasons of slash lines below… two from Machado in his age 22 and 23 seasons, and one from a Yankee in 2017.

.286 / .359 / .502

.294 / .343 / .533

.278 / .345 / .531

The first two seasons are Machado in 2015 and 2016… the third season is Gary Sanchez in 2017. The other thing to consider is that Machado plays a Gold Glove caliber third base, while Brandon Drury is coming off a season where he played one game at third. Once Machado is in the door for the Yankees he is not leaving through Free Agency unless this season was a complete disaster.

Let’s break this down the deal-

Yankees were already willing to trade Solak and Widener for a third baseman.

Considering Baltimore’s pitching situation, I considered Cortes 75% gone after the Rule 5 draft, it is probably 50/50 right now.

Mesa was always a long shot to stick with Baltimore, but they obviously like him as a player. While productive last year Mesa as a relief pitcher is excelling at a position that the Yankees have tremendous depth hence why he was exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

I view this as essentially trading Chance Adams and Jose Mesa Jr for the difference between Brandon Drury and Manny Machado. Using bWAR, Machado has never posted a season with less value than Drury’s best season of 1.6. Machado has two top 5 MVP seasons, in both he posted over 7 bWAR, and two Gold Gloves. The two players were born less than 2 months apart, so age isn’t a major factor either way.

If the Yankees stay under the luxury tax threshold and choose to pursue Machado after the season it will cost them a 2nd round pick and $500K in international money, so to bring Machado in next year it will have cost Solak, Widener, plus the pick and money to fill third base.

Why would Baltimore do it? They get three of the Yankees top 20 prospects, plus roster flexibility with Cortes and Mesa, two players they obviously like. That flexibility would help Baltimore get another pitcher, as they also have Rule 5 draft pick Pedro Araujo from the Cubs in camp, and pitching well this spring. It is hard for a team that has desires of contending… and not trading Machado means they are trying to contend at least for a wild card, to keep multiple Rule 5 draftees on the roster. Having the ability to move Cortes and Mesa Jr. to the minors would help them out.

Would Baltimore have gone for it, who knows? The perfect time to make an offer like that would have been right after Zach Britton’s injury when Baltimore was taking offers on Machado, and had to be thinking negatively about the upcoming season.

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