FanPost

Why the Yankees need to do something in the 2018-2019 offseason

As we move into the middle of November, many words have been typed about what the Yankees should or shouldn't do regarding their roster for the 2019 season. We have heard a lot about the "who" and the "what" but not necessarily the "why," at least as far as some comments I've seen.

So let's take a look at some facts:

Part 1 (reality)

The Yankees, as they're currently constituted, would be starting the 2019 with the following rotation and lineups:

Rotation

Confirmed: Tanaka, Severino, Sabathia (with Sabathia presumably as the #5 or #6 starter)

Unknown: who will fill out the rotation (spots 3 and 4 if CC is the #5)? German, Cessa, Adams, Loaisiga, Sheffield?

Right now, the Yankees are rolling into the 2019 season with only three proven starting pitchers, one of which is going to be 39 and presumably will not pitch every five days. This is an assumption on my part, based on the Yankees moving him to pitch every six days towards the end of the 2018 season.

None of the AAA options are particularly exciting. Jordan Montgomery won't return to the Yankees until July, at the earliest, so that's really no help for the opening day rotation.

Domingo German made 14 starts with the Yankees in 2018. with a 6.19 ERA | 4.68 FIP in those starts (he fared much better in relief, with a 3.12 ERA | 3.22 FIP in 17.1 IP).

Jonathan Loaisiga did impress in his MLB debut (5 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks, 4 BBs), and was fairly decent as a starter and out of the bullpen (his season ERA is heavily weighted by a 1.1 IP appearance against the Twins in which he gave up 6 ER on 4 hits and 3 walks). Even putting that anomaly aside, the big question mark with Loaisiga is durability. He pitched a career high 56 innings in 2018, across four levels (MLB, AA, High A, and rookie ball). This just a year after maxing out at 32.2 IP in 2017.

Luis Cessa did not fare much better (6.50 ERA | 5.05 FIP) as a starter. Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield are relatively unproven and did not impress in their MLB debuts. Any other AAA arms of note (Mike King, etc.) are also unproven in MLB.

My opinion is that the Yankees will only hurt themselves by rolling with a top three of Severino, Tanaka, and Sabathia, while once again counting on unproven arms to provide any kind of quality innings for the fourth and fifth starts (or third and fourth if Sabathia is pushed to the back of the rotation). Brian Cashman seems to agree, as multiple reports suggest that he has a lot of interest in adding "elite" arms to the rotation. That doesn't sound like AAA arms as much as proven MLB starters who provide innings and quality.

Remember how the Yankees weren't prepared for Jordan Montgomery to be sidelined by Tommy John Surgery after only six starts in 2018? Let's not repeat that mistake in 2019.

Bullpen

The bullpen is largely set. David Robertson is the main loss to free agency (at least as it currently stands). The Yankees have always been very good about developing relief arms, so do they really need to replace Robertson or Britton? I'm open to being persuaded one way or the other (though I personally am not interested in seeing Britton return to the Yankees).

Lineup and Defense

On the other side of the team, the Yankees would be entering the 2019 season with the following lineup:

C Romine/Sanchez (depending if Sanchez is actually ready for opening day)

1B Voit/Bird (whomever wins the Spring Training competition)

2B Torres (or Torreyes if Torres moves to SS)

SS ?? (or Torres)

3B Andujar

LF Gardner

CF Hicks

RF Judge/Stanton

DH Stanton/Judge

Bench: Romine (if Sanchez is ready), Kyle Higashioka (if Sanchez is not ready), loser of Voit/Bird competition, Ellsbury (if he's healthy), and ?? utility infielder

With Didi Gregorius out for at least half of 2019, the Yankees don't have anyone that can play SS other than Gleyber Torres. Moving him over and put Torreyes at 2B is an option, but Torreyes may be exposed at the plate with half a season of plate appearances. Even in 2017, when he played 108 games and made 336 plate appearances, he accumulated a well-below league average wRC+ of 81. Do the Yankees really want that kind of risk? I'd understand a league average bat, but not someone who mainly hits singles and has little ability to get on base or hit for power (3 HRs in 2017-2018, and all three of them were in 2017).

Reportedly, Gary Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day, after having surgery on his shoulder. Given the past projections (by the Yankees) of players returning from injury, I feel more safe saying that he won't be ready for Opening Day. In that case, do they want career journeyman Austin Romine as their starting catcher until Sanchez returns and do they want Kyle Higashioka to be his backup?

I'm not complaining much about the Voit/Bird competition for 1B, but they both have something to prove (that they're not "flash in the pan" players).

Then we get to Andujar. While his bat plays big, his defense leaves a lot to be desired. His -26 DRS is the worst in 2018 among all qualified third basemen in MLB (as is his -16 UZR). Even if one doesn't put a lot of stock in defensive metrics, these statistics are a reason to be concerned about Andujar's defensive capabilities. My contention is that his bat has a ways to go to justify playing him at 3B and living with his potentially horrible defense for many years to come. Will he improve defensively? Nobody can really say with any certainty.

How many terribly defensive third basemen remained at third base? Joshua Diemert wrote an excellent article about Miguel's defense back in October, which highlighted that other players with horrible defense at 3B found themselves moved to other positions (1B for Miguel Cabrera, OF for Ryan Braun). Do the Yankees have somewhere to plug Andujar? Only time and having him run drills/practice at those positions will tell. Do the Yankees have the patience for that, to train someone in one offseason to play one of two positions that he's never played professionally? Will he do either of them passably well? All valid questions for Miguel Andujar's future, despite his quality bat in the lineup.

Another aspect of Andujar's defense that gets overlooked is potential impact on starting pitching within each game. I'm uncertain where to find this information, if it exists, but how many extra innings or pitches did Andujar cost Yankee pitchers in 2018?

If anyone is wondering why Clint Frazier hasn't been mentioned yet, it's because I'm not yet convinced he even will be medically cleared to play baseball in 2019. This even with Cashman telling reporters at the Winter Meetings that Frazier will be ready to participate in Spring Training. Mike Axisa over at River Ave Blues wrote a great article that sums up my feelings on Frazier. I consider him a non-factor until he becomes a factor (again, I'm dubious of Cashman's and the doctor's claims that Frazier will be ready for Spring Training).

Part 2 (solutions)

All these lead to the conclusion that the Yankees need, at the very least:

  • Two proven starting pitchers (three, depending on how much they're planning to work Sabathia)
  • Utility infielder that can play 2B (or SS)
  • Starting or backup catcher (depends on realistic recovery timetable for Sanchez)
  • Replacement for David Robertson and/or Zach Britton

They can definitely grab two starting pitchers in free agency, depending on the quality of pitcher they want and the price they're willing to pay. If they are looking for "elite" pitching, then their first focus is probably the trade market. Patrick Corbin headlines this free agent class of pitching, and is probably my first choice. Of the other free agent options, nobody really excites me, but I'd be fine with Dallas Keuchel. The rest of the free agent options are either old (J.A. Happ, James Shields) or wildly inconsistent (the likes of which the Yankees could get by using their own AAA arms).

For the bullpen, they can re-sign David Robertson and/or try to sign Andrew Miller again.

With those options (and even if they sign Corbin and/or Keuchel), I'd hope they look to the trade market to find a third pitcher to lead the team (or co-lead with Severino). That's easier said than done, depending on which players/prospects Cashman deems "untouchable."

Can they get Kluber or Carrasco or Paxton or Bumgarner (all on rebuilding or semi-rebuilding teams) without giving up quality prospects or MLB-ready players? Will Andujar be a necessary piece of a trade package (for a team that has the patience to let him learn 1B or OF or improve his defense at 3B)?

If they move Andujar in a trade for a top tier starting pitcher, then Manny Machado becomes an attractive solution for their infield woes (he plays excellent defense at 3B, and they can still move other players around to cover SS and 2B).

I won't get into the moves I think they should make, but I wanted to present this overview of what and who the Yankees are really counting on if they go into 2019 by doing nothing. I know there's a front page post that's similar to this, but I feel it doesn't paint a clear picture of what the Yankees roster currently looks like.

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Pinstripe Alley writing staff or SB Nation.