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Doing the math!!!!

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The Yankees finalized their current salary threshold, thru salary arbitration. They are sitting at $177 million or $174 million, depending on who you read, with all seasonal expenses. That leaves them some $20 to $23 million to play with. Cashman most likely will keep at least $5 million back for minor league promotions and or trade deadline acquisitions. The questions is: "How will they spend their remaining $15 / $18 million?"

Most of the rumors we are hearing about are far fetched. Yet some seem like options that are obviously too good to pass up. It is apparent that the salary threshold, is the culprit as to why the roster has not been finished off. Because of the desire to stay under the $197 million dollar restriction, the Yankees and other teams are not spending crazy. Instead they are looking for good buys and pounding the trade front. Not only looking to upgrade their team but to lessen the salary requirements it has going forwards.

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Free Agent Rumors:

We all have heard about the recent Yu Darvish rumors of the Yankees offering him a contract. It has been rumored to be 6 years at $160 million to 7 years at $170 million. Doing the math, that is a $24.29 to $26.67 million Annual Average Value (AAV) deal. LOL, not happening guys! Only way this gets done is by trading of a player(s) who combined AAV is close to $10 million or more.

Alex Cobb was offered a three year deal by the Cubs for around $14 million a year and he rejected it. He must be wanting a deal for four to five years. He was supposedly on the radar of the Yankees early in the off season. Maybe he will come back to a price range and length of contract that Cashman feels comfortable with. He does fit, in our budget.

Tony Watson is still out on the free agent market. With experience as a closer and a late inning reliever it is surprising that someone has not signed him, specially with him being a lefty. Earlier in the off season it was reported that he was seeking a three year deal with an average dollar amount of 8 million a year. This has to be coming down as we get closer to Spring Training. He could be a reasonable addition to our bullpen if he would take a two year deal for around 6 to 8 million.

Next is the Todd Frazier rumor. His name is out there with several teams. The Mets, Yankees and Braves seems to be the most consistent teams connected with him. It has been rumored that Todd is seeking a three to five year deal. He is looking for a $15 AAV on his next contract. If Frazier wants to become a Yankee, he will need to lower his length and salary requirements. Obviously, the Mets nor the Braves are willing to go that much or that long either. (The Mets would only give Jay Bruce a $39 million for three years.) If he decides that chasing a World Series Championship and staying at home, are important, he will come back to the Yankees. He must be leaning towards that outcome. I see this having legs, on a two to three year at $9 to $11 million with a player option(s). Doing the math he is a solid addition.

Eduardo Nunez is an after thought, by most accounts. Yet, that rumor of him returning to the Bronx is still there. He must be one of the last resorts, for the current infield problem the Bronx Bombers have at second and short. Not many teams have been connect to him. Earlier in the off season it was rumored that he was looking for a three year deal in the $30 million dollar range. That seemed like a pipedream. If he is signed it would simply be as a the last man standing or insurance only. Somewhere in the $2 to $6 million a year range on a two year deal. He definitely will fit.

Brandon Phillips is a last resort in most eyes. He would be added simply to man second or third till his replacement is ready. He would be best suited to man second till Gleyber Torres is ready. I would think he would be signed on a $1 to $2 million one year deal. Hmm he fits but do we really want him?

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Trade Rumors:

Patrick Corbin seems to be Cashman's fall back trade option. Cashman and company seem to really like this left-hander. He just sign a contract for $7 million to finish out his last year prior to free agency. Once again I see this being a trade where the Yankees are looking to add additional players. Even willing to send cash to get the Diamondbacks or another team to take a player back in return.

Michael Fulmer rumor is still around but never seems to have any legs. He has yet to reach arbitration, will make around $.6 million. We keep hearing that the Tigers want a king's ransom for him. It has been rumored they are seeking two to three top 100 players and specific positional players as well. No one has even gotten close to meeting those demands. Who knows, maybe as the offseason winds downs they might change their minds (Now that the bar has been set by the Cole trade. Maybe, the Tigers will come off of their high demands.).

Josh Harrison seems to be a hot trade item. Teams like the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Blue Jays and Yankees, have all been linked in trade rumors for Josh. Keep in mind he has an AAV of only $6.825 million. Yet he is under team control till 2021 because of the options in that contract he signed. You can see he easily fits into the salary requirements of the Yankees.

Brandon Drury is a trade rumor that is still around but not much is being said about. You only hear about him when Corbin is mentioned. Brandon has yet to reach arbitration and will make about $.6 million in 2018. He seems to be the throw in to entice the Yankees to make this deal. So far Cashman and company have not taken the bait.

Manny Machado is without a doubt the apple of the Yankees eye. So far, Brian Cashman has not been able to even get a conversation going. He keeps circling back, but no luck! He has put forth a solid package from most reports. Many believe the best package. The Diamondback and the Yankees are the two teams most often connected to Machado. He recently signed a $16 million deal and that fits within the remain budget of the Yankees. The rumors are that the Orioles' like Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Andujar, Chance Adams, Jordan Montgomery and a bunch of cash. The biggest obstacle seems to be Baltimore's owner, does not want to do business with the Yankees. So Yankee fans will have to wait till 2019 to see Manny Machado in pinstripes!

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Who are the Yankee's trying to trade?

Below is a small spreadsheet of the potential trade candidate the Yankees have, included is there 2018 salary. Theses are the most likely trade candidates based upon team need and their respective salary. FYI: Most minor league options are around $ 535,000.

Player Salary
Ellsbury $22,142,857.00
Gardner $13,000,000.00
Robertson $11,500,000.00
Betances $5,100,000.00
Warren $3,315,000.00
Hicks $2,825,000.00
Romine $1,100,000.00
Shreve $825,000.00
Torreyes $561,000.00

We all are aware that the bombers are looking to move Ellsbury. The target seems to be a team that has its spring training in Arizonia. Cashman is bound and determined to move his salary off the books. So far there appears to be no takers.

David Robertson has been involved in a few rumors as well. Every rumor regarding him seems more in line to shed salary than any other reason. It's easy to see why, with him being owned some $11.5 million for 2018.

Rumors abound about Clint Frazier. He seems to be included in every top pitcher the Yankees are pursuing in a trade. Yet he still is a Yankee. Many believe Clint Frazier will be a superstar one day. He is a five tool player that will only get better with more experience. It will take a true ACE to get him away from the Yankees!

Miguel Andujar Is another Yankee prospect that is often mention in trade rumors. He has been linked in every rumor just about so far. Going for a Cole to a Machado and everyone else in between! Yet supposedly he Yankees would not include him in a Cole trade.

Chance Adams is the pitcher that is being placed out there to entice a team to make a trade. His name seems to be another hot item that teams are wanting included in a trade.

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Closing:

It's obvious that the Yankees cannot add Darvish and a top third base option without trading some assets away. In order to make it happen, they will need to trade a couple players. Some sort of combination to get a team to take on a salary such as Ellsbury's. As of now they will need to find an additional 10 to 12 million to meet the requirement of a mid-season trade or a few call ups.

A pitching decision should be made within the next two week. I personally believe that "The Stealth Ninja" will find a way to add Yu Darvish and keep his prospects. It is apparent that both sides have a lot of interest. The Yankees may give him the longest deal in order to lower his AAV. I could see them going 7 yrs at $130 million, with opt out after three years and five years. They may consider a front loaded contract with an opt-outs as options as well. This creates a lower AAV and allows for Darvish to be paid at a higher rate before he can opt out. I have faith that Cashman can get it done.

Todd Frazier will resign. Probable a three year deal for $10 million a year with player options for 2019 and 2020. This will allow Todd to opt out if Machado is signed for the 2019 season. The Yankees like this guy too much to let him get away. They will work out a deal that is creative enough to bring him back without putting the salary threshold in jeopardy. The Yankees love what he brings to this team, in and out of the clubhouse. I see a deal where he gets front loaded and has a couple of option years to lower his over all salary AAV. For example, first year of 13 million second year (option year) 9 million and final year is 8 million (another option year) for an AAV of 10 million.

I would like to see Tony Watson added on a two year deal for around 8 million. Not sure how this would be accomplished and add both Frazier and Darvish. Yet, Watson would be the final piece to make the bullpen the greatest in the history of baseball. Cashman must become creative to make it happen.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve and $11 million will be traded to a team, like the Giants, for low level prospects. We throw in some $11 million per year of Ellsbury's remaining contract to get the trade done. A team adds a center fielder, left handed reliever and a right handed reliever. The bomber would shed some 14 million in salary per their current AAV. That might be enough to sign all three players.

When the dust settles we add Todd Frazier and Yu Darvish. Possible Watson as well. Subtract Jacoby Ellsbury, Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren. Leaving very little room for an addition at the trade deadline and any call-ups needed during the season. In this scenario the Yankees have around 4 to 5 million cushion left.

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Now what do you think is going to happen?

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