FanPost

Why Manny Machado isn't a good fit for the Yankees

Hot take incoming. I don't want the Yankees to trade for Manny Machado or sign him when he becomes a free agent. I know, I know, I'm an idiot. Hear me out.

Introduction

Manny Machado is a very good baseball player. He's one of the best third basemen in the game, with a slick glove and great power. He's also very young, he's currently 25 years old. But Manny Machado is not perfect, and more importantly, he does not fit the mold for what the Yankees need going forward as they try to establish the next great Baseball Dynasty.

Does Manny Machado make the Yankees a better team in 2018 if they trade for him? Assuming they give up no major league pieces, the answer is a resounding yes. The Yankees need a third baseman and Machado plays third base. He's also pretty damn good at hitting baseballs very far. So yes, in a vacuum, he makes the Yankees better in 2018.

But does he make the Yankees better beyond 2018 if he were to sign an extension? I don't think so.

I. Prospect Cost

First and foremost, if the Yankees are to acquire Machado they are going to pay a large amount for him from a prospect standpoint. All the rumors suggest the Orioles want top prospects, particularly top pitching prospects. Given that the Yankees are making Torres and Florial untouchable, I would have to imagine a deal for Machado would look something like a Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, Miguel Andujar + in order to even have Baltimore consider a deal.

I will admit, if Machado had more years of control under his belt or would consider signing an extension right off the bat, then this deal, again in a vacuum, wouldn't be terrible. But all reports indicate he will be testing free agency, and while the Yankees are probably top his lists of teams to join, the prospect haul to acquire him is a lot for the idea that he may just leave. In addition, the idea of losing our best pitching prospects for a position player are not ideal. Yes, we have cost controlled pitchers for the next 3 years. But eventually we need new blood. In addition, I think Justus Sheffield is one hell of a pitcher, and should not be moved for anything more than another pitcher (or Mike Trout).

II. Clubhouse Fit

Machado wants to play SS again. In case anyone forgot, the Yankees have a pretty good SS in Didi Gregorious. I don't see the Yankees moving him anytime soon or making him play 3B to comfort Machado. I say this because Cashman went out of his way to ask Judge how he felt about Stanton and splitting time with him. Couple in the communication issues that Joe Girardi had and the need for a manager who can connect with the team better, it's obvious the Yankees very much value the club house chemistry they have. That's not to say Machado couldn't fit in. I'm sure he could. But he's also shown a tendency to be immature, something the Yankees don't tolerate well and something their current players who are also young don't display (sans Gary Sanchez sucker punching someone).

III. Stats

Manny Machado does two things very well. He's a great fielder and he smashes the hell out of baseballs. Machado has the most home-runs for any player under 25 not named Bryce Harper. Yet, when you look at Machado's stats, there are some serious red flags.

Let's compare six third basemen by their career numbers. I'm going to use BA Average/OPS/OPS+ as the three stats for comparison. Guess which one is Manny Machado. (All Stats via Baseballreference.com)

.288/.915/142

.290/.875/118

.287/.821/117

.277/.878//138

.289/.816/124

.270/.823/125

Machado isn't listed. Those six players, in order, are Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Adrain Beltre, Justin Turner and Evan Longoria. For comparison, here are Machado's numbers.

.279/.805/.116

Machado's numbers are not horrible by any stretch, they are good and are comparable to these guys. But from a sheer offensive standpoint he is probably the 7th best third baseman in baseball. Of course, his defense counts for something, and according to Fangraphs he has the 6th best fielding metrics for all third basemen. According to the numbers, Machado does not currently crack the Top 5 when it comes to his own position. So does he deserve to be paid as one of the best players in all of baseball? I'm not sure.

Diving deeper, one of the things that stands out the most about Machado is his OBP. Machado owns a career .329 OBP (via Baseballreference). He does not walk a lot. Manny Machado is thus not known for taking a lot of pitches and making pitchers work. He saw 3.70 pitches per at bat in 2017. For comparison, he saw, 3.69 in 2016, 3.91 in 2015, 3.64 in 2014, and 3.53 in 2013 (All via Baseballreference). Amongst qualified batters last season he ranked 120 out of 146 in pitches per plate appearance. Sure, he had a down year, but even at his best in 2015 he only ranked 56.

I'm not a huge fan of guys who can't get on base, because as logic dictates, the more you get on base, the more chances you have to score. And in case anyone has been asleep for all our playoff loses, for the most part over the years we've lost because we allow starting pitchers to abuse our line-up as we fail to get men on base and manufacture runs. I don't need to tell everyone how many years in a row we've been Top 5 in baseball in homeruns and runs scored but have failed to win the World Series. There's more to playoff baseball than the long ball. We've seen how valuable it is when our players make pitchers work. Machado does not fit the mold of grinding out at bats. We need more guys like Gardner, Judge and Stanton who walk a lot and make pitchers work and less guys like Didi Gregorious and Gary Sanchez, who while very talented, are more boom or bust at the plate.

IV. Injury History


Offense aside, Machado also has had two knee surgeries before he is 26 years old. Granted, he has been pretty health as of late and he's far form injury prone but this is a concern worth noting and is not something easily swept under the rug.

V. Other options at Third base

While the Yankees need a Third Baseman for the 2018 season, it's not as if they do not have potential internal options.

Gleyber Torres could very well end up at 3B instead of 2B long term. If Miguel Andujar figures out his defense so could he. Tyler Wade, who I personally am not a fan of, has the glove to play third base if he figures out how to hit. While I am not a huge fan of starting two rookies in the infield, the Yankees could conceivably go with Torres/Wade at 2B and Andujar at 3B. If Andujar can fit there, he becomes a much cheaper option than Machado.

Additionally, Josh Donaldson, who will likely be cheaper, will be a free agent in 2019 as well. Arenado who I think is a better player, will be available in 2020. The Yankees don't need to pull the trigger on Machado yet while they have internal placeholders who could possibly take over, or while there are better values on the horizon if they just wait.

VI. Cost

Manny Machado is going to command a 10-year contract if not longer. Manny Machado is also going to command around $30 million dollars a year. That is a lot of money. But not only is it a lot of money, it is also will hamper the Yankees plans moving forward.

The Yankees have a lot of cheap young talent right now. That won't be the case in four years. While Stanton and potentially Machado are in the middle of their super deals, Judge, Sanchez and Severino, along with Bird will need new deals as well. Add in any other FA needs and the Yankees will be once again tops in payroll. While the Yankees are not hurting for cash, it's clear they have become much smarter with their money.

Granted, if the Yankees signed Donaldson or Arenado, the same cost issues apply (perhaps even more so with Arenado). However, I think they bring more value than Machado, and with less issues.

VII Conclusion

I don't think Machado is worth the money he is going to command for what he offers. We will essentially be paying $300 million dollars for Machado to be the 4th best position player on the Yankees behind Judge, Stanton and Sanchez, 5th if Torres reaches his potential. I don't think that is smart, especially for a guy with a .329 OBP who has had two knee surgeries. If his legs give out on him we are stuck with a 3B who will need DH time when that should already be dedicated to our two mammoth outfielders and Gary.

I think it would be short sighted to go after Machado now before we know what we have in Andujar, especially with Donaldson and Arenado on the horizon. The only thing Machado has over them is that he's younger, but I honestly believe they are better players than him, especially Arenado. I think his offensive game is not what we need. We have enough power, now we need guys who get on base, work the count, and grind out at bats.

With all this said, if we got Machado would it be a terrible thing? No, he'd instantly make us better. For the money however, I just don't think he's worth it.

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