FanPost

The Free agency Plan... to get under luxury tax!!

2017 Yankees Payroll stood at $225.2M!

As it currently stands, this is expected to reduce to $114.2M, but we still have to account the money that will be given out for Arbitration & Pre-Arb players.

The luxury tax threshold is $197M. So that gives the Yankees $82.8M to work with! How can the Yankees achieve getting under the tax??

But First things First!! Before we even get to players contract, Yankees have 2 of the most important free agents to sign - Our "Ninja" GM Cashman and our "Binder" Manager Joe Girardi.

Hoping that our Ownership is not that stupid to let them walk, let's say Yankees sign them to nice deals and pay raises!! Cashman as it stands is more of a guarantee to be signed an extension, but despite Girardi's statements, let's say he chooses to continue to stay with the Yankees and signs with the team to move forward!! (This place does give Girardi best opportunity to gain more success and more WS rings so hopefully that factors into his consideration).

Coming to the players - let's start with easy ones -

The most likely FAs who will not be re-signed

  1. Jamie Garcia
  2. Matt Holliday
  3. Michael Pineda

That's 32.4M off the books!!

FAs who could be re-signed and/or offered extension

  1. Masahiro Tanaka
  2. CC Sabathia
  3. Todd Frazier

ASSUMPTIONS - I am veering towards a slightly higher salary that may be needed for FAs, pre-arbs and Arb players to get signed in to the team again. But if Yankees do manage lower numbers, it is of course beneficial to our team. But based in typical salary bumps for pre-arb and arbs & veteran short term pay historically and the appetite for the team, I have laid out these projected numbers.

As it currently stands, that is $59M off the books.

Let's look at what it will take to get them back - CC will probably require $15M/year. Assuming he requires a 2year deal at least, Yankees may choose to tag a buyout since they hold the bargaining chip in this instance. So either 1 yr $15M deal or 2 years $13M AAV ($14M 1st year and $12M 2nd year) with a say $3M buyout in year-2 if things don't work out.
Accounting for the max dollar, let's say he count for $15M towards the cap.

Masahiro Tanaka - most likely to opt out! (Ownership feels like they are ready to let him walk, this view might have changes after his Post-season performance). Let's say they change that mindset and look to give him an extension and bring him back. I feel the Yankees may go up to 6yr $25M AAV should that get him on board (I know there has been differences during comments on what he would get, but I feel he would not be able to score $30M AAV contract, but then he has demonstrated ability to go toe-to-toe with the best in the league when it comes to pitching duel, so he might still get that big dollars). I just feel Yankees will walk away at such a contract. So if he is going to stay with Yankees, they may do a max of $25M AAV. (primarily because they want to get under luxury tax...and this make me hate this scenario and I am now pessimistic that Tanaka will be back)

As much as we all fans love, I don't see Yankees bringing Todd Frazier back. I see him scoring a 3 or 4year contract somewhere and I don't think Yankees will consider anything more than 2years/$24M (if at all). He is an average 3WAR player, so he might fetch a lot more than this for a longer term (3 or 4 years).

Considering the above equations - let us say the AAV for Yankees for next year with CC and Tanaka on board adds $40M for 2018.

Considering these potential re-signing, Yankees will have remaining $42.8M for Arb and Pre-arb players

There are 8 players who are Pre-Arb. Assuming an average of $650K for each of them (which is pretty generous), the salaries add up to $5.2M. Remaining money - $37.6M

There are again 8 players who are Arb Eligible, let's go through each to figure out and estimate what they could be awarded -

Didi - Currently 5.1M- he received $2.7M more last year compared to the year before, assuming a similar rise, his salary would be $8M (Remaining- $29.6M)

Sonny Gray - this yr- $3.575M. He received $3M bump in his first year of arbitration. Assuming he nearly doubles - $7.5M (Remaining - $22.1M)

Betances - this yr $3M. He may get his $5.5M this year which he asked last year (Remaining $16.6M)

Adam Warren - Last yr in arb, may get $4M (Remaining 12.6M)

Aaron Hicks - nearly doubling his current salary would give $2.5M (Remaining $10.1M)

Austine Romine - nearly doubling his current salary would give $1.5M (Remaining $8.6M)

Chasen Shreve and Tommy Kahnle gets bumped to $1M each (Remaining $6.6M).

We unfortunately have a residual salary of McCann to account for - $5.5M (Remaining $1.1M).

With only this much remaining, Otani's signing will put us over the Luxury Tax Threshold.

Therefore if that needs to happen - one of these probably will have to happen

  1. We do not re-sign Tanaka at above mentioned value OR
  2. We do not re-sign CC OR
  3. We sign both, but somehow by magic trade Ellsbury by agreeing to pay $10M/yr of his salary, thereby saving $11M/yr OR
  4. We trade Headley and fast track Andujar to handle 3B thus saving about $11.5M/yr OR
  5. We trade Castro and bring Torres to handle 2B thus saving ~$10M/yr OR
  6. We sadly trade Gardner and replace him with Clint Frazier thereby saving about $11.5M/year (I would totally hate for this to happen)

Can we have the cake and eat it too in 2018??

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