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Predictions are a terrible idea, particularly in baseball. Even John Sterling could tell you that. Nonetheless, we do it every single year anyway just because it's fun to see what happens.
2016 has brought a remarkable degree of surprises and it's only July 6th. Since the Yankees just recently passed the 81-game halfway mark of the season, here is a peak into the smoldering remains of our preseason predictions.
1) 2016 AL Standings
| AL East | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | Blue Jays | Rays | |||
| Jason | Blue Jays | Red Sox | |||
| Andrew | Red Sox | ||||
| Caitlin | Red Sox | Rays | |||
| Greg | Blue Jays | ||||
| Provenzano | Blue Jays | ||||
| Ferenchick | Blue Jays | Red Sox | Rays | ||
| Kunj | Blue Jays | Red Sox | |||
| Harlan | Rays | ||||
| Nikhil | Red Sox | Rays | |||
| Jim | Red Sox | Rays | |||
| Jake | Blue Jays | ||||
| Chris | |||||
| Tom | |||||
| Hecht | Red Sox | ||||
| CURRENT | Orioles | Blue Jays | Red Sox | Yankees | Rays |
| AL Central | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | |||||
| Jason | Tigers | ||||
| Andrew | Indians | ||||
| Caitlin | Tigers | Twins | |||
| Greg | |||||
| Provenzano | Indians | White Sox | Twins | ||
| Ferenchick | Tigers | ||||
| Kunj | Tigers | ||||
| Harlan | Indians | Twins | |||
| Nikhil | |||||
| Jim | |||||
| Jake | Indians | Royals | Twins | ||
| Chris | White Sox | Twins | |||
| Tom | White Sox | Twins | |||
| Hecht | |||||
| CURRENT | Indians | Tigers | Royals | White Sox | Twins |
| AL West | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | |||||
| Jason | |||||
| Andrew | |||||
| Caitlin | |||||
| Greg | |||||
| Provenzano | Rangers | Astros | Mariners | ||
| Ferenchick | A's | ||||
| Kunj | |||||
| Harlan | Angels | ||||
| Nikhil | |||||
| Jim | |||||
| Jake | |||||
| Chris | Rangers | Astros | |||
| Tom | |||||
| Hecht | Rangers | Astros | Mariners | ||
| CURRENT | Rangers | Astros | Mariners | A's | Angels |
To be fair, the AL East and AL Central are super muddled around the middle right now so a game here or a game there could change how this currently looks. But yeah... it's not pretty. Props to Provenzano for nailing almost half the spots though.
2) 2016 NL Standings
| NL East | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | Marlins | ||||
| Jason | Marlins | Phillies | Braves | ||
| Andrew | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | Phillies | Braves |
| Caitlin | Marlins | ||||
| Greg | Marlins | Phillies | Braves | ||
| Provenzano | |||||
| Ferenchick | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | ||
| Kunj | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | Phillies | Braves |
| Harlan | Marlins | Phillies | Braves | ||
| Nikhil | Marlins | ||||
| Jim | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | Phillies | Braves |
| Jake | Marlins | ||||
| Chris | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | Phillies | Braves |
| Tom | Marlins | ||||
| Hecht | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | ||
| CURRENT | Nationals | Mets | Marlins | Phillies | Braves |
| NL Central | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Jason | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | Brewers | Reds |
| Andrew | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Caitlin | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | Brewers | Reds |
| Greg | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Provenzano | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Ferenchick | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Kunj | Brewers | Reds | |||
| Harlan | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| Nikhil | Cubs | ||||
| Jim | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | Brewers | Reds |
| Jake | Cubs | ||||
| Chris | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | ||
| Tom | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | ||
| Hecht | Cubs | Brewers | Reds | ||
| CURRENT | Cubs | Cardinals | Pirates | Brewers | Reds |
| NL West | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Tanya | Giants | ||||
| Jason | Giants | ||||
| Andrew | Giants | ||||
| Caitlin | |||||
| Greg | Giants | ||||
| Provenzano | |||||
| Ferenchick | |||||
| Kunj | |||||
| Harlan | Giants | Padres | |||
| Nikhil | |||||
| Jim | Giants | Dodgers | |||
| Jake | |||||
| Chris | |||||
| Tom | |||||
| Hecht | Giants | Dodgers | |||
| CURRENT | Giants | Dodgers | Rockies | D'backs | Padres |
We did generally better in the NL, which was at least a little more predictable--except for the Rockies not actually being a nightmare, of course. Odd.
3) A-Rod & Tex HR, Gardner & Ellsbury SB, Tanaka & Severino ERA, and Dellin K
| NYY Misc. | A-Rod HR | Tex HR | Gardner SB | Ellsbury SB | Tanaka ERA | Severino ERA | Dellin K |
| Tanya | 32 | 26 | 15 | 30 | 3.70 | 3.36 | 124 |
| Jason | 29 | 32 | 17 | 25 | 3.88 | 4.00 | 122 |
| Andrew | 22 | 36 | 22 | 28 | 3.69 | 3.93 | 114 |
| Caitlin | 30 | 27 | 18 | 26 | 3.47 | 3.63 | 117 |
| Greg | 37 | 35 | 39 | 41 | 3.21 | 2.56 | 135 |
| Provenzano | 24 | 32 | 22 | 31 | 3.11 | 3.69 | 130 |
| Ferenchick | 74 | 28 | 19 | 28 | 3.55 | 3.42 | 110 |
| Kunj | 31 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 2.98 | 3.69 | 121 |
| Harlan | 21 | 29 | 25 | 36 | 2.92 | 3.53 | 102 |
| Nikhil | 26 | 33 | 18 | 25 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 120 |
| Jim | 22 | 26 | 16 | 19 | 3.62 | 3.72 | 101 |
| Jake | 23 | 26 | 19 | 29 | 3.42 | 3.82 | 105 |
| Chris | 26 | 25 | 21 | 33 | 3.37 | 3.45 | 115 |
| Tom | 26 | 34 | 18 | 24 | 3.48 | 3.63 | 130 |
| Hecht | 27 | 31 | 17 | 29 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 108 |
| PACE* | 16 | 14 | 24 | 32 | 3.12 | 7.46 | 148 |
*or current
Don't worry, Ferenchick! Still holding out hope for A-Rod's 66-homer second half. Also, Luis Severino just makes me sad. Sigh.
4) Yankee leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR
| NYY leaders | AVG | HR | ERA | WAR |
| Tanya | Jacoby Ellsbury | Alex Rodriguez | Luis Severino | Didi Gregorius |
| Jason | Didi Gregorius | Brian McCann | Nathan Eovaldi | Didi Gregorius |
| Andrew | Jacoby Ellsbury | Mark Teixeira | Nathan Eovaldi | Mark Teixeira |
| Caitlin | Starlin Castro | Alex Rodriguez | Michael Pineda | Brian McCann |
| Greg | Starlin Castro | Alex Rodriguez | Luis Severino | Didi Gregorius |
| Provenzano | Jacoby Ellsbury | Mark Teixeira | Masahiro Tanaka | Brian McCann |
| Ferenchick | Jacoby Ellsbury | Alex Rodriguez | Luis Severino | Brian McCann |
| Kunj | Starlin Castro | Mark Teixeira | Masahiro Tanaka | Brian McCann |
| Harlan | Starlin Castro | Mark Teixeira | Masahiro Tanaka | Jacoby Ellsbury |
| Nikhil | Starlin Castro | Mark Teixeira | Michael Pineda | Didi Gregorius |
| Jim | Didi Gregorius | Brian McCann | Michael Pineda | Michael Pineda |
| Jake | Starlin Castro | Brian McCann | Masahiro Tanaka | Masahiro Tanaka |
| Chris | Didi Gregorius | Brian McCann | Masahiro Tanaka | Didi Gregorius |
| Tom | Starlin Castro | Mark Teixeira | Nathan Eovaldi | Didi Gregorius |
| Hecht | Jacoby Ellsbury | Mark Teixeira | Nathan Eovaldi | Mark Teixeira |
| CURRENT | Carlos Beltran | Carlos Beltran | Masahiro Tanaka | Masahiro Tanaka |
Well of course we all saw the Carlos Beltran Renaissance coming. Didn't you?
5) MLB leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR
| MLB leaders | AVG | HR | ERA | WAR |
| Tanya | Miguel Cabrera | Bryce Harper | Zack Greinke | Bryce Harper |
| Jason | Mike Trout | Bryce Harper | Jake Arrieta | Bryce Harper |
| Andrew | Carlos Correa | Paul Goldschmidt | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Caitlin | Bryce Harper | Giancarlo Stanton | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Greg | Bryce Harper | Giancarlo Stanton | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Provenzano | Jose Altuve | Bryce Harper | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Ferenchick | Miguel Cabrera | Alex Rodriguez | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Kunj | Miguel Cabrera | Giancarlo Stanton | Zack Greinke | Bryce Harper |
| Harlan | Paul Goldschmidt | Giancarlo Stanton | Jose Fernandez | Manny Machado |
| Nikhil | Miguel Cabrera | Nolan Arenado | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Jim | Miguel Cabrera | Giancarlo Stanton | Jake Arrieta | Mike Trout |
| Jake | Bryce Harper | Giancarlo Stanton | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Chris | Jose Altuve | Bryce Harper | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Tom | Miguel Cabrera | Bryce Harper | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
| Hecht | Jose Altuve | Bryce Harper | Zack Greinke | Mike Trout |
| CURRENT | Jose Altuve | Kris Bryant | Clayton Kershaw | Mike Trout |
The only real big surprise here is Bryant leading the majors in homers, and even he's not a stunner. Kershaw and Trout good, you say? Why, I never...
6) Most teams wins & losses, first manager fired
| MLB Misc. | Most team wins | Most team losses | 1st manager fired |
| Tanya | Cubs (104) | Reds (99) | Robin Ventura |
| Jason | Cubs (98) | Reds (100) | Bryan Price |
| Andrew | Nationals (96) | Braves (102) | Bryan Price |
| Caitlin | Cubs (100) | Phillies (98) | Brad Ausmus |
| Greg | Yankees (106) | Rockies (108) | Brad Ausmus |
| Provenzano | Mets (97) | Braves (101) | Bryan Price |
| Ferenchick | Yankees (107) | Phillies (100) | Bryan Price |
| Kunj | Pirates (99) | Braves (101) | Brad Ausmus |
| Harlan | Cubs (96) | Reds (104) | Bryan Price |
| Nikhil | Cubs (101) | Brewers (95) | Brad Ausmus |
| Jim | Giants (98) | Braves (99) | Pete Mackanin |
| Jake | Cubs (97) | Phillies (98) | Bryan Price |
| Chris | Cubs (100) | Brewers (103) | Bryan Price |
| Tom | Cubs (97) | Phillies (101) | Bryan Price |
| Hecht | Cubs (98) | Phillies (102) | Bryan Price |
| CURRENT | Rangers (101) | Braves (108) | Fredi Gonzalez |
Okay, to be fair, the Cubs were easily the best team in baseball until the past week or so. Oh well. Bad move by us not seeing Fredi Gonzalez's departure coming.
7) MLB Awards
| AL Awards | Rookie of the Year | Cy Young Award | MVP |
| Tanya | Byron Buxton | David Price | Mike Trout |
| Jason | Byron Buxton | Sonny Gray | Lorenzo Cain |
| Andrew | Jose Berrios | Chris Archer | Carlos Correa |
| Caitlin | Joey Gallo | Dallas Keuchel | Mike Trout |
| Greg | Byron Buxton | Dallas Keuchel | Mike Trout |
| Provenzano | Byron Buxton | Chris Sale | Mike Trout |
| Ferenchick | Byron Buxton | David Price | Mike Trout |
| Kunj | Byron Buxton | Chris Sale | Dellin Betances |
| Harlan | Blake Snell | Sonny Gray | Manny Machado |
| Nikhil | Lewis Brinson | David Price | Mike Trout |
| Jim | Gary Sanchez | Corey Kluber | Mike Trout |
| Jake | Jose Berrios | Chris Sale | Mike Trout |
| Chris | Jose Berrios | Dallas Keuchel | Mike Trout |
| Tom | Byron Buxton | Chris Sale | Carlos Correa |
| Hecht | Byron Buxton | Sonny Gray | Mike Trout |
| Consensus | Byron Buxton | Chris Sale | Mike Trout |
| NL Awards | Rookie of the Year | Cy Young Award | MVP |
| Tanya | Corey Seager | Zack Greinke | Bryce Harper |
| Jason | Corey Seager | Gerrit Cole | Paul Goldschmidt |
| Andrew | Corey Seager | Madison Bumgarner | Paul Goldschmidt |
| Caitlin | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Greg | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Provenzano | Corey Seager | Noah Syndergaard | Bryce Harper |
| Ferenchick | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Kunj | Corey Seager | Matt Harvey | Andrew McCutchen |
| Harlan | Trevor Story | Noah Syndergaard | Paul Goldschmidt |
| Nikhil | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Jim | Trevor Story | Jake Arrieta | Paul Goldschmidt |
| Jake | Corey Seager | Max Scherzer | Buster Posey |
| Chris | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Anthony Rizzo |
| Tom | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
| Hecht | Corey Seager | Madison Bumgarner | Bryce Harper |
| Consensus | Corey Seager | Clayton Kershaw | Bryce Harper |
There is no telling how the BBWAA would vote if they had to right now, so I didn't tabulate a "current" result for this, but it would be stunning if anyone beat out Seager for NL Rookie of the Year. So we got that at least! Don't look at our AL answers though. Be kind.
Don't worry though Kunj, Dellin is still definitely winning the MVP.
8. PLAYOFFS?!
| Playoffs | AL Wild Card game | NL Wild Card game | ALCS | NLCS | World Series | WS Champ |
| Tanya | TOR vs. TEX | PIT vs. ARI | NYY vs. HOU | NYM vs. CHC | Yankees/Cubs | Yankees |
| Jason | TOR vs. TEX | PIT vs. STL | NYY vs. HOU | CHC vs. PIT | Astros/Pirates | Pirates |
| Andrew | KC vs. NYY | PIT vs. ARI | HOU vs. KC | WAS vs. SF | Astros/Nationals | Nationals |
| Caitlin | NYY vs. TEX | WAS vs. SF | NYY vs. KC | NYM vs. CHC | Yankees/Cubs | Cubs |
| Greg | TOR vs. MIN | PIT vs. ARI | NYY vs. HOU | NYM vs. CHC | Yankees/Cubs | Yankees |
| Provenzano | TOR vs. NYY | PIT vs. SF | NYY vs. BOS | NYM vs. PIT | Yankees/Pirates | Pirates |
| Ferenchick | TOR vs. BOS | PIT vs. SF | NYY vs. HOU | WAS vs. SF | Yankees/Giants | Yankees |
| Kunj | TOR vs. LAA | CHC vs. STL | NYY vs. KC | PIT vs. CHC | Yankees/Pirates | Pirates |
| Harlan | NYY vs. KC | PIT vs. ARI | TOR vs. CLE | PIT vs. SF | Indians/Giants | Giants |
| Nikhil | NYY vs. TEX | PIT vs. WAS | NYY vs. TOR | CHC vs. NYM | Yankees/Cubs | Yankees |
| Jim | NYY vs. MIN | LAD vs. STL | NYY vs. HOU | CHC vs. STL | Yankees/Cubs | Yankees |
| Jake | TOR vs. SEA | WAS vs. SF | CLE vs. BOS | LAD vs. CHC | Indians/Dodgers | Dodgers |
| Chris | BOS vs. CLE | NYM vs. SF | KC vs. TEX | CHC vs. SF | Royals/Cubs | Cubs |
| Tom | CLE vs. BOS | STL vs. WAS | HOU vs. KC | CHC vs. NYM | Astros/Cubs | Cubs |
| Hecht | NYY vs. CLE | NYM vs. PIT | KC vs. TEX | PIT vs. SF | Rangers/Giants | Giants |
| Consensus | TOR vs. TEX | PIT vs. STL | NYY vs. HOU | NYM vs. CHC | Yankees/Cubs | Yankees |
We obviously can't project most of the last row yet, though if the playoffs began today, we can say that the two Wild Card matchups would be Blue Jays vs. Red Sox and Dodgers vs. Mets. The only person to have either of these projected is Matt Ferenchick, so huzzah for him!
Which have been the biggest surprises of 2016 so far for you?