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I don't put much stock in individual game odds, but it's pretty telling that the Yankees have a 60% chance of winning tonight's game against the Royals, per FiveThirtyEight. The Yankees will have Masahiro Tanaka on the mound for his seventh start of the year, and he has been absolutely brilliant so far. He has a 2.29 ERA and 2.56 FIP, and if you look at him compared to last year's numbers, it's not like he's getting lucky:
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | LOB% | BABIP | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 8.12 | 1.58 | 1.46 | 74 | .242 | 3.98 |
| 2016 | 8.01 | 1.60 | 0.46 | 76 | .250 | 2.56 |
Well, that depends on how you feel about his home run rate. He has allowed just two home runs this year, which is a nice improvement so far. One of those home runs was against Kevin Kiermaier who hit a high cutter, and the other was off the bat of Carlos Correa on Opening Day. I don't think this is exactly sustainable, but it could be a sign that he is adjusting and not leaving hanging sinkers and fastballs over the plate.
On the other side, the Royals have Kris Medlen on the mound. Medlen has had two Tommy John surgeries, once in 2010 and another in 2014. He was non-tendered by the Braves and has not tossed a full season since 2013. He has had an 86 ERA+ since his return with the Royals over 80.2 innings. He has also allowed eight home runs in that span, so get on that Bombers.
The lineup is relatively normal in this non-Alex Rodriguez and Jacoby Ellsbury world, except with two changes: Ben Gamel, who recorded his first major league hit last night, is starting in right field , and Mark Teixeira is out of lineup because of neck spasms. Starlin Castro is also back in the lineup after hurting his rib cage when he was thrown out at third base on Sunday, so it's nice to see that the injury wasn't serious.
Go Yankees, boo Royals, go baseball.