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Update: Ding-dong, the witch is dead. Huzzah.
The results are in, and Fredric Horowitz ruled that Alex Rodriguez's suspension from the Biogenesis investigation will last 162 games, essentially the entire 2014 season. While the Yankees' production from the third base position will take an obvious hit, they are undoubtedly pleased that they will not have to pay all of A-Rod's $25 million salary next season. In luxury tax calculations, A-Rod's hit was due to be $27.5 million due to the average annual value (AAV) of the 10-year, $275 million contract he signed prior to the 2008 season. However, Joel Sherman reports that in wake of the suspension, the Yankees will only be credited with $3,155,737.70 for A-Rod. (The remainder comes from off-days, which he still gets paid for; okay then?)
So now that A-Rod's 2014 payroll hit has been established, will the Yankees be able to reach their goal of a $189 million payroll? The long rumored target would help them avoid the luxury tax in 2014. Here's where the payroll currently stands:
| Non-Arb MLB Players | 2014 salary | AAV hit |
| CC Sabathia | $23,000,000 | $24,400,000 |
| Mark Teixeira | $23,125,000 | $22,500,000 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | $22,000,000 | $22,142,857.14 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | $21,142,857 | $21,857,142.86 |
| Brian McCann | $17,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | $16,000,000 | $16,000,000 |
| Carlos Beltran | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| Derek Jeter | $12,000,000 | $12,810,000 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | $6,500,000 | $6,500,000 |
| Brett Gardner | $5,600,000 | $5,600,000 |
| David Robertson | $5,215,000 | $5,215,000 |
| Alfonso Soriano | $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Matt Thornton | $3,500,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Ivan Nova | $3,300,000 | $3,300,000 |
| Alex Rodriguez | $2,800,000 | $3,155,737.70 |
| Kelly Johnson | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Brian Roberts | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Brendan Ryan | $2,000,000 | $1,666,666.67 |
| Shawn Kelley | $1,765,000 | $1,765,000 |
| Francisco Cervelli | $700,000 | $700,000 |
| Kuroda's translator | $85,000 | $85,000 |
| Vernon Wells | $2,400,000 | $0 |
| Player benefits | $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 |
| Total | $204,132,857 | $203,197,404.40 |
The 2014 contracts for pre-arbitration players and minor league players have not yet been established. The likely salaries for pre-arb players, who will make at least the league minimum of $500,000 or what they made in 2013, and the likely minor league salaries of other 40-man roster players are added, provided by our friends Derek Albin and Chris Mitchell at Pinstripe Pundits.
| Remaining Players | 2014 salary est. | AAV hit est. |
| Eduardo Nunez | $533,300 | $533,300 |
| Michael Pineda | $528,475 | $528,475 |
| David Phelps | $512,425 | $512,425 |
| Adam Warren | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Preston Claiborne | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Dellin Betances | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Austin Romine | $81,500 | $81,500 |
| J.R. Murphy | $81,500 | $81,500 |
| Zoilo Almonte | $81,500 | $81,500 |
| Vidal Nuno | $81,500 | $81,500 |
| Cesar Cabral | $81,500 | $81,500 |
| Dean Anna | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Manny Banuelos | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Slade Heathcott | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Gary Sanchez | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Shane Greene | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Ramon Flores | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Jose Campos | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Bryan Mitchell | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Nik Turley | $40,750 | $40,750 |
| Total | $3,848,450 | $3,848,450 |
| Combined Total | $207,981,307 | $207,045,854.40 |
The final total has the Yankees currently at about $185.5 million owed through AAV for the 2014 season, which doesn't leave much room at all to maneuver before hitting $189 million. Even if their offseason ended right now, they are at risk of going over on bonuses alone:
| Player Bonuses | Bonus value | AAV hit |
| Jeter AL MVP | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Jeter 2nd-6th for MVP | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Jeter Silver Slugger | $1,500,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Jeter Gold Glove/ALCS MVP/WS MVP | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Soriano WS MVP | $350,000 | $350,000 |
| Soriano AL MVP | $300,000 | $300,000 |
| Soriano top All-Star vote-getter | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Soriano ALCS MVP | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Soriano Gold Glove | $75,000 | $75,000 |
| Kuroda 190 IP | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Kuroda 210 IP | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Roberts 250 PA | $175,000 | $175,000 |
| Roberts 300 PA | $175,000 | $175,000 |
| Roberts 350 PA | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Roberts 400 PA | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Roberts 450 PA | $300,000 | $300,000 |
| Roberts 500 PA | $300,000 | $300,000 |
| Roberts 550 PA | $350,000 | $350,000 |
| Roberts 600 PA | $400,000 | $400,000 |
| Roberts 650 PA | $400,000 | $400,000 |
| Kelley 55 G | $25,000 | $25,000 |
| Bonus potential* | $10,050,000 | $10,050,000 |
*In highest bonus scenario, the 2nd and 6th bonuses are unattainable
Obviously, Jeter, Soriano, and Roberts are unlikely to reach most of these bonuses at this point in their careers (especially the high-value Jeter MVP one), but if somehow everything breaks right for them, the Yankees would end up over $189 million anyway. So that alone might be enough to state that Plan 189 is dead.
Even if the Yankees are gambling on the side of "well, THOSE bonuses aren't happening" though, their ambitions to sign Masahiro Tanaka would easily push the Yankees over $189 million since there's no way Tanaka is signing for an AAV lower than $6 million. The Yankees have stated numerous times that they would go over $189 million for Tanaka, and running the numbers confirms that they would indeed exceed $189 million for him.
If the Yankees don't succeed in their efforts to sign the talented young righthander though, they will have about $5.5 million in payroll flexibility before reaching $189 million. If they make a couple low-cost, late free agent signings to plug their remaining holes (third base and the starting rotation, to name a couple) as they have in the past few years for the likes of Raul Ibanez, Eric Chavez, and Travis Hafner, then they could theoretically have a chance to finish the 2014 with a payroll under $189 million if most of the bonuses don't come to fruition. It's not really a smart business decision to gamble that the bonuses don't happen, however unlikely they might appear. If the Yankees choose to be frugal and the bonuses are somehow reached, then they're screwed anyway.
At this point, it seems pretty unlikely that the Yankees end up under $189 million before the start of the season, even if they don't get Tanaka. I'm skeptical that the Yankees wouldn't subsequently react by signing one of the other available top free agent starters (Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, and co.), regardless of whether or not it's a good idea. I would be surprised if the Yankees felt comfortable going into the season with a rotation of Sabathia/Kuroda/Nova/Pineda/Phelps or some similar iteration. So no; even though technically Plan 189 is still possible, it doesn't appear that Plan 189 is very likely anymore. What say you?
