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Revisiting the Pinstripe Alley/Pinstriped Bible preseason Yankees predictions

Which staff members made predictions like Nostradamus, and which made predictions like Jimmy Rollins?

"And they thought I'd be GOOD, Derek! ahaha"
"And they thought I'd be GOOD, Derek! ahaha"
Eric Christian Smith

Back in Spring Training on March 28th, members of the site's then-staff (Tanya, Jason, Matt Ferenchick [hereafter Matt F1], Greg, Craig, Mason, and me) made our predictions for the Yankees' season. So how did we do in our wild guessing?

1. Who will have the highest batting average?

Andrew: Robinson Cano (1)
Tanya: Robinson Cano (1)
Jason: Robinson Cano (1)
Matt F1: Robinson Cano (1)
Greg: Robinson Cano (1)
Craig: Robinson Cano (1)
Mason: Robinson Cano (1)

Well, that was a challenge. Cano did indeed end up with the highest average among regulars at .314. Everyone gets a point!


2. Who will have the lowest ERA for starters? Relievers?

Andrew: CC Sabathia, David Robertson (2)
Tanya: CC Sabathia, David Robertson (2)
Jason: Hiroki Kuroda, Mariano Rivera (2)
Matt F1: CC Sabathia, David Robertson (2)
Greg: Ivan Nova, Mariano Rivera (1.5)
Craig: CC Sabathia, David Robertson (2)
Mason: CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera (1)

Mixed results here. D-Rob beat Mo by a hair for the reliever ERA title, 2.04 to 2.11. Almost the whole staff flubbed on the incredibly disappointing CC (4.78), but Jason and Greg correctly predicted Kuroda (3.31) and Nova (3.10) would finish with better ERAs than the big man. Technically though, only Kuroda qualified for the ERA title in the AL; Nova had a lower ERA in 139 1/3 innings, but he did not meet the requisite 162 innings (1 IP per team game). Jason gets the full point, but we'll give Greg half a point.

3. Who will be the first prospect called up?

Andrew: Melky Mesa (2)
Tanya: Mark Montgomery (2)
Jason: Mark Montgomery (2)
Matt F1: Melky Mesa (2)
Greg: Mark Montgomery (1.5)
Craig: Austin Romine (3)
Mason: Tyler Austin (1)

As confirmed by a news story and the Yankees' April transaction log, the first Yankees called up were Romine and Vidal Nuno (after Francisco Cervelli and Ivan Nova's injuries). Most of us were horribly wrong, as Montie was a big letdown and never even made it the majors. Austin never made it either (less surprising), and Mesa didn't get the call until mid-July. Only Craig gets the point here.

4. How many saves for Mariano Rivera?

Andrew: 38 (2)
Tanya: 37 (2)
Jason: 35 (2)
Matt F1: 30 (2)
Greg: 46 (1.5)
Craig: 42 (4)
Mason: 38 (1)

We'll play "Price is Right" rules here: the winner is the closest to Mo's actual save total without going over. Mo saved 44 games, tied for the fourth-highest total of his career. The winner is Craig, who guessed 42, though while he went over, Greg didn't miss by much at 46. He can thank the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Adam Jones, and the Yankee Stadium short porch for that.

5. How many stolen bases for Brett Gardner and Ichiro combined?

Andrew: 75 (2)
Tanya: 70 (2)
Jason: 90 (2)
Matt F1: 66 (2)
Greg: 88 (1.5)
Craig: 71 (4)
Mason: 55 (1)

Well this was a dud. Gardner (24) and Ichiro (20) combined for just 44 stolen bases. Everyone went over. No one wins. No one in the community even guessed under 44. Yay.

6. How many combined home runs from the catcher position?

Andrew: 16 (2)
Tanya: 7 (3)
Jason: 4 (2)
Matt F1: 20 (2)
Greg: 27 (1.5)
Craig: 14 (4)
Mason: yikes, 9? (1)

Simply amazing. The catchers combined for eight homers--Chris Stewart had four in 340 PA, Cervelli had three in 61 PA, Romine had one in 148 PA, and J.R. Murphy had none in 27 PA. Way to go, guys. Tanya gets the point here for guessing seven, though Jason came admirably close despite his low guess of four and Mason narrowly went over. Greg, were you drunk?


7. Biggest surprise/biggest disappointment?

Andrew: Surprise: Francisco Cervelli, Disappointment: David Aardsma (3)
Tanya: Surprise: Kevin Youkilis, Disappointment: Ivan Nova (3)
Jason: Surprise: David Phelps, Disappointment: Travis Hafner (3)
Matt F1: Surprise: Ichiro Suzuki, Disappointment: Boone Logan (2)
Greg: Surprise: Ivan Nova, Disappointment: Travis Hafner (3.5)
Craig: Surprise: Ivan Nova, Disappointment: Derek Jeter (6)
Mason: Surprise: David Phelps, Disappointment: Ichiro Suzuki (2)

It's going to be a bit subjective here, but we'll just give points if the player appropriately belongs in the category. Aardsma never actually threw a pitch for the Yankees since the Yankees thought he was unimpressive in camp and was cut shortly after the predictions were made, so I think that counts as a disappointment. Hafner and Ichiro were definitely disappointments, and Nova was certainly a surprise. Jeter's a tougher case, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to say his 17-game season was a disappointment since he never truly regained his 2012 health. Logan was decent out of the 'pen, so it seems unfair to call him a disappointment.

8. Which is higher: Number of A-Rod starts at 3B or Eduardo Nunez starts at SS?

Andrew: A-Rod at 3B (3)
Tanya: Nunez at SS (4)
Jason: Nunez at SS (4)
Matt F1: Nunez at SS (3)
Greg: Nunez at SS (4.5)
Craig: Nunez at SS (7)
Mason: A-Rod at 3B (2)

Due to Jeter's injury and Alex Rodriguez's delay and subsequent hamstring/calf problems which limited him to DH duty for most of September, Nunez easily won this contest with 69 starts at shortstop to A-Rod's 27 at third base. Everyone got that one right except for Mason and me. Whoops.

9. Which reliever will have the most appearances?

Andrew: David Robertson (4)
Tanya: Boone Logan (4)
Jason: Boone Logan (4)
Matt F1: David Robertson (4)
Greg: Cody Eppley (4.5)
Craig: David Robertson (8)
Mason: David Aardsma (2)

D-Rob led the Yankees' pitchers with 70 games played, followed by Mo at 64 and Logan at 61. Eppley made two appearances, and Aardsma didn't make the team. Matt, Craig, and I all received points here.

10. How many innings pitched for Andy Pettitte?

Andrew: 170 (4)
Tanya: 175 (5)
Jason: 150 (4)
Matt F1: 170 (4)
Greg: 137.1 (4.5)
Craig: 135 (8)
Mason: 160 (2)

The ol' southpaw beat all our predictions and threw 185 1/3 innings in 2013, his highest total since 2009. Tanya came the closest with 175, so she gets the point.

So Craig had the most predictions correct at eight, while Mason should not be trying his luck at the casinos anytime soon. Tanya finished in second with five, Greg was in third at 4.5, and Jason, Matt F1, and I tied for fourth at four.

I also evaluated the seven community guesses, and they ranked as follows:

Chris Kirby: 5 (winner of Andy IP guess--almost nailed it with 185)
sportstank97: 5 (winner of Mo saves guess--43)
upstateNYYFan1984: 5
david d: 4
designatedquitter: 4
GriffMan: 4
toomanyhrs: 2 (winner of C HR guess--nailed it with 8)

We'll do this again for the MLB prediction guesses once the postseason is done and the awards are announced.

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