It's no secret that the 2011 season has provided an abundance of options to be the American League's Most Valuable Player. Jose Bautista continues his rampage of glorious home run pounding up north of the border, while three of Boston's best duke it out to be the MVP of their own team. Oh yeah, and this guy named Curtis Granderson has been exceeding high expectations and is making a case of his own here in the Bronx.
As most of you know by now, the new age of baseball statistics has come up with its ultimate way of rating players based on their performance as "wins above replacement", or WAR for short. Here's the definition according to FanGraphs:
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point. WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, "If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?" This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins.
So with this tool, it's easier to compare MVP candidates based on one statistic. Granted, this statistic doesn't show everything, but it's a great way of quickly eyeballing.
What I'd like to do is compare the top three vote-getters since 2006 in the MVP voting to see whether or not voters and overall WAR rating correlate. Basically, to see if voters have given out the MVP award to the most deserving candidate based solely on this statistic.
Breakdown after the jump.
2006 actual results
Name MVP Rank WAR League WAR Rank Justin Morneau 1st place 4.0 22nd Derek Jeter 2nd place 6.3 3rd David Ortiz 3rd place 5.5 7th
2006 WAR adjusted
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Grady Sizemore |
11th |
8.0 |
1st |
|
Joe Mauer |
6th |
6.4 |
2nd |
|
Derek Jeter |
2nd |
6.3 |
3rd |
2007 actual results
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Alex Rodriguez |
1st |
9.8 |
1st |
|
Magglio Ordonez |
2nd |
8.1 |
2nd |
|
Vladimir Guerrero |
3rd |
3.2 |
31st |
2007 WAR adjusted
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Alex Rodriguez |
1st |
9.8 |
1st |
|
Magglio Ordonez |
2nd |
8.1 |
2nd |
|
Curtis Granderson |
10th |
7.8 |
3rd |
2008 actual results
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Dustin Pedroia |
1st |
6.8 |
2nd |
|
Justin Morneau |
2nd |
3.5 |
25th |
|
Kevin Youkilis |
3rd |
5.9 |
6th |
2008 WAR adjusted
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Grady Sizemore |
10th |
7.4 |
1st |
|
Dustin Pedroia |
1st |
6.8 |
2nd |
|
Nick Markakis |
N/A |
6.3 |
3rd |
2009 actual results
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Joe Mauer |
1st |
7.9 |
2nd |
|
Mark Teixeira |
2nd |
5.3 |
12th |
|
Derek Jeter |
3rd |
7.2 |
4th |
2009 WAR adjusted
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Ben Zobrist |
8th |
8.6 |
1st |
|
Joe Mauer |
1st |
7.9 |
2nd |
|
Evan Longoria |
19th |
7.5 |
3rd |
2010 actual results
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Josh Hamilton |
1st |
8.7 |
1st |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
2nd |
6.3 |
7th |
|
Robinson Cano |
3rd |
6.6 |
6th |
2010 WAR adjusted
|
Name |
MVP Rank |
WAR |
League WAR Rank |
|
Josh Hamilton |
1st |
8.7 |
1st |
|
Evan Longoria |
6th |
7.5 |
2nd |
|
Carl Crawford |
7th |
7.5 |
2nd |
Taking a look at the results, only one award winner seems truly absurd. Justin Morneau had no business winning the 2006 MVP. Plenty of players put up identical or better numbers all around and were barely considered.
It would be naive to believe that the Baseball Writers Association of America would vote strictly based upon a fairly newly created and adopted statistic. Every voter has different criteria and a differing definition of "most valuable player". Many writers that grew up in the "old school" days of batting average, home runs and runs batted in will simply vote favoring those somewhat outdated statistics. Some heavily favor how much impact a player had on a team's run to the playoffs. And there are those that have embraced sabermetrics that measure a player's overall performance more accurately.
Whichever way you slice it up, Curtis Granderson will have a legitimate shot at the award whether or not he deserves it.
Personally, I'd vote Jose Bautista. Quite simply put, he's been an absolute beast.
Who will most likely win it? Dustin Pedroia. His mighty little heart will put Bautista to shame in the end.
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