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Arod and BABIP

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I don't want to throw my man kuri under the bus, but this morning he mentioned luck, Arod and BABIP.

This stirred up the usual tempest in a tea-cup, so I feel like I should throw my 2 cents in.

BABIP is secondary stat- it's calculated (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).

And as stats go, to me, BABIP is only useful in the context of a players Line Drive, Ground Ball and Fly Ball percentages.  There is a hugely powerful correlation between LD% and BABIP.  We expect BABIP to be roughly LD+.120.  Now, guys like Ichiro play a different kind of baseball, which is why every year CHONE and other projection systems think he'll collapse into a .250 hitter, and every year he beats the system.  But for 99% of the human being who hit white spheres for a living, this is true.

Arod's low LD% is a concern to me.  He's posted a 15.3% LD this year, so we'd expect a .273 BABIP, which nearly hits his .275 mark on the nose.

It's not bad luck.  He's not hitting the ball hard.  He's hitting a ton of fly balls, and while fly balls will occasionally leave the yard, nearly 11% of Arod's fly balls haven't left the infield (his career mark is 6%).

Is this a Small Sample Size blip, or is this the Arod we'll watch for the next several years?  I don't have the answer, but what I see worries me for the long-term.