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Montero: 'The Most Overrated Prospect in Baseball'

...if he stays in this organization, and moves from behind the plate like many scouts believe, Montero quickly becomes one of the game’s most overvalued prospects.

Bryan Smith projects Montero as a 3 WAR player on the strength of his bat alone, with a .370 wOBA roughly equivalent to Robbie Cano's 2009.

I like a lot of what I read at FanGraphs, but this article has some serious flaws.

1) If Montero is a lousy catcher and splits time between DH and C, it adds a full win to his value even given his lousy defense.

2) The article doesn't weigh a RF/LF option.  Ryan Braun (-8.9 UZR/150), Jason Bay (-11.2), and Magglio Ordonez (-5.4) have all enjoyed All-Star seasons in the last few years despite lousy outfield defense.

3) We're talking about Montero's youngest, cheapest seasons- the years when he is most likely to over-perform all expectations for the least amount of money.  Johnny Damon was a 3.1 WAR player in 2009- his "discounted" FA price for the Tigers was $8M.  Hideki Matsui was a 2.7 WAR player in 2009, when he earned $13M, and he signed for $6.5M.

If Montero can't stick at catcher, he still has huge value to the Yankees because he could be an everyday player at the DH or OF and also fill a bench role as an offense first backup catcher.  And he can do it cheaply.  Maybe Montero won't be a Yankee for life.  But if Melky Cabrera can bring back Javy Vazquez, Montero will still have value after 3 or 4 seasons.  And for those 3 or 4 seasons, he'll be most valuable in the Bronx.