Recently I emailed a few SB Nation writers about the possibility of trades between the Yankees and their team. First up, the Chicago White Sox, Gavin Floyd, and the great SB Nation White Sox site, South Side Sox. This is pure speculation, but it is interesting to see what the writers think the White Sox would/should want for Floyd.
Gavin Floyd is set to be paid $5M in 2011, $7M the year after and a $9.5 club option for 2013. I think a reasonable projection is for him to be worth 3.5 wins per season over those three seasons. I would guess Gardner is worth about 3 for the same years. He'll get the league minimum this year since he doesn't qualify for arbitration. Once he does, he'll get about 40% of what he's worth on the open market in his first arb year, 60% in his second and 80% in his third. That's like $6.4M in 2012, 10.5 in 2013 and 15.4 in 2014, assuming normal salary inflation and that Gardner's defense-oriented production won't be undervalued in arb. That isn't as much savings as the difference in production merits, but it's pretty close. The Sox might want some low level prospect in return for that difference. Or maybe Kenny Williams will convince Brian Cashman to live up to his surname. In all honesty, my feeling is the Sox come out on the losing end of this deal...but I take that to mean I've compensated for my personal bias. I really, really like Gavin Floyd and was on his bandwagon even after his underwhelming '07. Working with Don Cooper, I feel he'd have a shot at a Cy Young season over the course his current deal. That's an important aspect of this hypothetical deal. Don Cooper, the Sox' pitching coach, has done a lot to keep Gavin mentally and physically prepared to be a top line starter. If the Yankees don't have a pitching coach of a similar caliber, tics could develop that Gavin can't iron out on his own. Gardner has a few issues of his own (e.g. being a late bloomer), but he's exactly the kind of guy Ozzie Guillen would love to have in his lineup. And his price in 2011 would be very appealing to Kenny Williams, who suddenly finds himself competing against the Twins without the substantial payroll advantage he's long been used to.
Another opinion after the jump!
Keep in mind, I probably will overvalue Gavin but most people wind up doing that for their team's players. But on to the analysis. Gavin has been a 4+ WAR player the past two seasons, and at age 28 (next year) this is likely to at worst continue for the remainder of his contract. That contract happens to be incredibly team friendly, as it pays him like a 2 WAR player throughout ($5MM in 11, $7.5MM in 12, $9.5MM club option in 13). This means the other team is gaining around 2-2.5 WAR in surplus value (assuming inflation and Gavin neither improves or declines). The fact that the Yankees have few young White Sox farm system is rather thin makes this a trade for prospects. Obviously Floyd doesn't warrant a Hallday or Lee payout, but he is a young 2 or 3 starter capable of 190 innings a season. Something like Manny Banuelos and Austin Romine doesn't seem too extreme, as Romine seems blocked from ever catching for the Yankees. The trade seems like a bit forced of a match-up, but this is something I would be ok with.that would make for a realistic trade (though I would love to somehow steal Gardner) combined with the fact that the
Would you want to do either of these trades? Neither? Thoughts?