River Avenue Blues states the obvious about Bill James' projections for in 2011:
I’d say for Montero to approach his AAA line (and James' projection) in the majors in 2011, he’d have to be pretty consistently awesome for 6 months (with the expected normal peaks and valleys) as a 21 year old rookie catcher, in New York, playing on a team that expects to win the World Series (emphasis added). Good luck with that.
James is predicting a .285/.348/.519 for Montero, and if he did that he'd be in historic territory.
He should, however, easily eclipse the AL average line for catchers - .245/.312/.374 last season - and if he can manage to combine that with just slightly below replacement level defense, he should be a pretty good major leaguer in 2011.
I just hope we don't give him the Joba treatment........
- ESPN has a great post about the success (if you want to call it that) of long-term free agent contracts for pitchers over the last two decades. Sure, you can argue technicalities a bit, for example, the traded for in 1997 and signed him to an extension, thus avoiding free agency altogether. But the point still stands - long term contracts are risky, and you can probably count on both hands the number of 5+ year deals that have worked out for teams.
may or may not pitch in 2011, but he's announced he definitely won't pitch in 2012. All the more reason to give Joba a shot....