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How many runs are needed to win?

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In a semi-recurring theme on the consistency of offense, we'll take a look at how many runs are needed to win a ballgame.

  • This season, the magic number has been five. Teams that score (exactly) five runs win 61% of their games. Scoring four runs engenders a 49.5% winning percentage, which is basically a toss-up.
  • The biggest difference, as far improving win percentage, is between three and four runs. Scoring that fourth run increases the chances of winning 16%.
  • Once you get beyond seven runs, it's almost a guaranteed win, and anything under three runs is almost a guaranteed loss.
  • Scoring 15 runs doesn't help the chances of winning that much more than eight runs. So in essence, scoring 5-7 runs consistently is better than scoring two in one game and 10 the next. The consistent offense probably wins both games while the inconsistent one probably gets a split.

Not earth-shattering, but good to see the facts behind the belief.