I want the Yanks to play .600 ball against the bottom of the barrel, .500 against the contenders.
So far this season, I've asked the Yankees to go 47-31, which would put them atop the division (assume at least one of those extra wins would have come at the Red Sox expense. Instead they've gone 44-32 with a couple wash outs to make up.
The Yanks are not in bad position. They're 3 games up on Texas and Toronto for the wildcard, and if the season ended today they'd probably meet the Angels in the first round of the playoffs.
But I want that division crown, and July is a good month to make up some ground.
So, I clump the Twins, Angels, Rays and White Sox into 'contenders.' So 6-5 there.
In the other 16 games, I'll take 10-6.
The Tigers and White Sox have swapped places in their division, so call that a wash. But the Twins are a .500 team and look it, while the wheels have really fallen off the Athletics.
The Yanks have the room to make a move this month, with Phil Hughes looking dominant in the pen and the rotation starting to click. They'd better take it.