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Anatomy of an at-bat: Utley's three-run homer

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This will be a short one -

With no outs, two runners on, and the previous batter the recipient of a bean-ball, Utley was looking for Burnett to get ahead early. And in a sense, A.J. was right to do so: Utley swung at the first pitch only 9% of the time this season (third lowest in the NL*). But for whatever reason, he decided he would guess first-pitch fastball and got one down the heart of the plate:

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That was really the game. It increased Philly's chances of winning 19%. No other hit or out was as important.

* courtesy of The 2010 Bill James Handbook