Not to put any pressure on the guy (he's our #2 starter in his first postseason ever), but that's how big he'll be, for good or bad.
Of the Yankees' four starters, he has been the most inconsistent in terms of alternating between near-no-hit shutouts and six-run batterings.
For example, take a look at his ER in his last seven starts (in chronological order): 6, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 1.
To drive home that point, he has the highest earned run standard deviation of any Yankee starter (among CC, Pettitte and Joba), almost 19% more inconsistent than the second least consistent, CC Sabathia.
The good news is that Burnett's been better at home this year: 3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .700 OPSa vs. 4.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .757 OPSa on the road.
He's also been significantly better at night: 3.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .665 OPSa vs. 5.38 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .814 OPSa in the daytime.
Then, of course, we know he's pitched better to Jose Molina.
He'll be at home tomorrow night throwing to Molina, so who are we going to see? Chances are, A.J. will either win or lose the game all by himself.