The Hardball Times has their season predictions up. They ran 100 sims and produced some interesting results in the AL East.
The Yankees won the division 46 times (and tied with the Blue Jays once) while the Red Sox won the division 47 times. Basically, that's a push.
Where things get really interesting is the Wild Card projections:
The Yankees win it 24.5% of the time, the Blue Jays win 24.5%, while the Red Sox win 18.5%.
Basically, THT prefers the depth in the Yanks rotation and lineup to the Red Sox- a major injury handicaps Boston's playoff chances more than a similar injury limits the Yanks.