clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

How many runs does one need to win?

New, comments

What's the record for teams when they score X runs? At which point is the biggest increase?

The Yankees final '3 runs or fewer counter' was 70. Considering it happened 89 times during the previous two seasons combined, it's a helluva lot.

On to the ML average -

At what point does one run mean the most? (2005-08)

A team scored just 1 run 1824 times from 2005-08, and won only 151 times for a .083 winning percentage.

2 runs - 2344 times - 510 wins - .218 win %

3 runs - 2638 - 888 - .337

4 runs - 2547 - 1184 - .465

5 runs - 2203 - 1351 - .613

6 runs - 1934 - 1354 - .700

7 runs - 1466 - 1168 - .797

8 runs - 1066 - 893 - .838

9+ runs - 2379 - 2218 - .932

 

So we can see what prompts the biggest jump in winning percentage: 5 runs, where the chances of winning increase nearly 150 percent (compared to 4 runs). Not too far behind (at a 136 % increase) is 2 runs vs. 1 run. Anything higher than 5 runs is almost a guaranteed win while anything less than 4 is nearly a guaranteed loss.

The Yankees reached the magical mark of 5 or more runs only 77 times, meaning they also scored 4 or fewer runs 85 times. It's actually a testament to their pitching that they still finished over .500.

Considering how average the team was (7th in runs scored and 8th in ERA (out of 14)), they really need to address both areas. The defense was also well below average - their Range Factor was above average at just one position (2b) and they were the 5th worst team in Defensive Efficiency (i.e., converting balls in play into outs).

This isn't encouraging. All three areas of the team were average or worse this year. Adding Mark Teixeira would increase the offense AND defense (but is the cost prohibitive?), the addition of Brett Gardner in center would neutralize a lot of hits (assuming he's just as good as this year), but what about his bat?, Manny would boost the offense tremendously (while playing just as poor a defense as Abreu, so no loss there), and CC Sabathia would obviously be the most helpful acquisition of the offseason (providing innings and quality), but does he want to play in New York?

 

- Did a little analysis with Defensive Efficiency. The difference between the top team (Tampa Bay) and the bottom team (Cincinnati) is just .038 %, but when we determine that that averages about 1.6 extra outs per game, it looks a lot more important. Now you might think 1.6 outs a game ain't much, but those extra outs save the pitcher's arm (and hence the bullpen) and prevent or halt rallies. Teams get just 27 per game, so to take 1.6 of those away is very valuable.