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Will Carroll at LoHud

Every time I think I know something, somebody say This is not a pipe, and I'm back at square one.

Will Carroll is one of the big boys over at Baseball Prospectus and an expert on the development of young pitchers. He has a long piece over at LoHud that throws into doubt all of the IP+30 assumptions we've made in trying to predict our young starters.

The crux:

The problem is that the Rule is based on Major League innings only, not a combination of Major and Minor League innings. I wish I could explain why this is so, but my best efforts to find a translation for minor league innings remains just a dream....
Adjustments to the translations haven't come up with consistent results either, leaving me with this corrolary to the Rule: Minor league innings are somehow not the same as major league innings.
Mr. Carroll thinks the Yankees are going to have a pitching staff as fragile as the 2006 Marlins-2007 Marlins, who sent a few different players to Dr. Andrews.

And we know who managed those 2006 Marlins, don't we?