The candidates (alphabetically):
5) To be honest, I only include Chien-Ming Wang to recognize how important he has been to my favorite team over the last two years...
and to make clear once and for all how far he was from a Cy Young season.
Only Justin Verlander enjoyed better run support.
Of the five, Wang allowed the most runs in the fewest innings (30 starts).
4) The difference between third and forth place is a razor's edge for me. I decided on Lackey as my number four because he played in what seems a better pitchers' park.
3) I've tried to select my award winners based only on the information I expect every fan to be able to digest. I've stayed away from the advanced stats that evaluate a team's defense, pitcher VORP, LUCK, bullpen ratings, etc.
So, I wondered at first if I was placing too much value on ERA in picking ERA leader Fausto Carmona. But the 24-year old has had the sort of season that will someday win Wang a Cy Young:
2.88 groundballs to every fly ball, only 16 homeruns per game, and a .352 SLG against.
Like Lackey, Carmona received at least half a run less support than the other three on the list.
But even give all that, I see a big gap between Carmona and the top two guys on my list.
2) Josh Beckett has had a phenomenal year. He worked hard in the offseason simplifying his motion to finally tapped into that potential the world saw back in 2003. He allowed only 189 hits in 200.2 IP.
But he wasn't C.C. Sabathia.
1) Sabathia did everything Beckett did this season. They sport identical WHIPs but Sabathia holds the edge in both Ks and ERA.
So why is Sabathia the clear cut Cy Young winner? Look at those innings pitched. Red Sox fans will argue that you shouldn't count Beckett's injury time against him (30 starts to C.C.'s 34).
But I do, otherwise Erik Bedard would be on this list.
Sabathia pitched the equivalent of four extra complete games. As it is, Beckett averaged 6.2IP per start, while Sabathia's just over 7 innings/game. One extra out per start may not seem like much, but ask Francona how important one out is when he has to choose between the sore armed Okijima and Eric Gagne.
Furthmore, Sabathia pitched all those innings while receiving a full run of support less than Beckett.
The BWAA might pull a 2005 and hand Beckett the award because of his 20 wins, but C.C. Sabathia has been far and away the most valuable pitcher in baseball this season.
Oh yeah, that's who we'll be facing on October 3rd at the Jake. Eleven wins to go...
Update [2007-9-29 11:45:4 by jscape2000]:
This is to address Bcap's claim that "Josh had to get a lot more of those wins and K's against the best lineup on baseball" and that he deserves exrta credit for that.
I'd say that Sabathia's record against the Tigers (whom Beckett never faced) balances Beckett against the Yankees.
Also, check out the splits against Tampa.
I'm sure you guys will find more here to talk about.