When the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs, a key point to the deal was getting Adam Warren back in return. "I think I can represent that was important for Hal Steinbrenner," Brian Cashman said of bringing back the versatile right-hander.
Warren played an instrumental role in the Yankees bullpen from 2013 - 2015. He pitched in short relief, made spot starts, and even took regular starts in the rotation early last year. He was also available, however, because he struggled mightily in Chicago. "I just didn’t pitch well," said Warren of his stint as a Cub.
That’s one way to put it. He managed a ghastly 5.91 ERA in Chicago. His peripherals weren’t much better, either. His 5.83 FIP indicated that he couldn’t prevent runs from scoring. It’s hard to imagine another team lining up to trade for Warren, but the Yankees have history. Plus, with the possible departure of Andrew Miller looming, they would need as much help as they could in the bullpen.
From a cursory glance, it seems that Warren rebounded nicely. In 17 games with the Yankees, he owns a 3.38 ERA (4.02 FIP). That’s pretty good considering his troublesome stint with the Cubs. Any manager would take those results. A closer look, however, reveals two drastically different stretches. He pitched exceptionally well from July 27th to August 15th before falling off precipitously.
Dates | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP |
2013 - 2015 | 7.65 | 2.92 | .075 | .286 | 3.23 | 3.59 |
April 9th - July 23rd (Cubs) | 6.94 | 4.89 | 1.80 | .242 | 5.91 | 5.83 |
July 27th - August 15th | 8.18 | 2.45 | 0.00 | .154 | 0.00 | 2.15 |
August 16th - September 3rd | 9.00 | 5.40 | 3.60 | .556 | 10.80 | 8.15 |
Those numbers jump right off of the page. His recent stretch of poor pitching doesn't even compare to his tenure in Chicago. Of course there's small sample size noise, and certainly the .556 BABIP explains some of his struggles. It's important to remember, however, that measurement doesn't always indicate bad luck. It can also reveal poor pitching. This begs the question--what explains Warren's ineffective spell?
There's no reason to suspect that Warren is injured, even though Joe Girardi has been reluctant to use him of late. He didn't pitch at all from August 21st to the 27th. In three of his last four appearances he pitched less than one full inning. That probably has to do more with his unreliability than an undisclosed injury. The next place to look then is pitch selection.
It also helps to have a closer look at his period of struggles:
From a quick glance, it appears that Warren has relied heavily on his slider while shying away from his four-seam fastball. That makes sense considering the batting average against his four-seam during this period is .500, compared to the .333 off his slider. In fact, according to Brooks Baseball, all of his pitches have been hittable in this slump. The next place to look then is velocity. Unfortunately, that doesn't offer much of an explanation either.
His velocity has mostly trended upward, with the only exception being a slight tick off of his slider in August. If velocity isn't to blame for his struggles, then perhaps command is. After all, the 5.40 BB/9 during his slump is exorbitant. A closer look at his zone profile could illuminate the trouble spots.
Compare that to the numbers during his slump:
Those maps don't look dramatically different, but the trouble is he's leaving more pitches down in the zone. Those pitches that should be low strikes are missing, and that could explain his uptick in walks. That means more baserunners. Combine that with his abnormally large BABIP, and that spells trouble.
As previously stated, BABIP is easy to write off as bad luck. It's a measurement that can be overused. Fortunately for Warren, however, that just might be the crux of his problem. His velocity checks out, and he doesn't exhibit any noticeable mechanical changes. He hasn't dramatically altered his pitch selection, either. Plus there's no reason to believe that he's hiding an injury. His recent slump has been pretty tough to explain, and that's good news. If anything, it appears that he has been the victim of some poor command and misfortune.
If the Yankees hope to remain relevant in the Wild Card race, they're going to need Warren to return to the pitcher he was in early August. The starting rotation can't be counted on for length, and most of the other bullpen options are uninspiring. Warren is a highly important player now. That said, there's reason to believe things will turn around for him, and yesterday was a good start. Stay the course and the results should follow.