So Chris Dickerson lands in the top 10, taking the #9 spot.  Now we're moving on to the number 10 pick.  I haven't added any new names to the list, so they should all be familiar to you.

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When you get a chance, I'd like to see an analysis of Cueto and Volquez.  Cueto looks like he falls off a lot and given his size, I wonder if he's putting too much stress anywhere in order to generate that much speed.  Also, he seems to let his mechanics slip as he tires.  I wonder if you can see any evidence of that.

I'd like to compare him to Volquez too.  With Dusty Baker running those guys out there for the next two years, it'd be nice to know if we have reason to fear for their futures.

Mark Sheldon reports that Reds have 11 non-roster invitees to camp this year, including outfielders Laynce Nix and Darnell McDonald, catchers Ryan Jorgensen and Chris "Daddy Mackski" Kroski, infielders Wes Bankston, Kevin Barker and Luis Bolivar, and pitchers Aaron Fultz, Ron Flores, Jeff Kennard and Adam Pettyjohn.  These are all typical roster filler for Spring Training, with only Fultz and Nix as serious candidates for breaking camp with the team.

Notably absent from the invitee list are minor leaguers Drew Stubbs, Chris Valaika, and Todd Frazier.  Anybody have any guess as to why?

I haven't mentioned it before, but I encourage you to read Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?'s series The Road to 17, where WHYGAVS author Pat Lackey reviews the seasons since the Pirates last winning season in 1992 and tries to get a grasp on how it has all happened.  Obviously it's a little heavy in Pirate details, but there are parallels to the Reds situation that might be a cause for concern - and no, I'm not just talking about Cam Bonifay.

For those not interested in reading the whole set of posts - he does one for each year - here is a quick summary of the last 2 Pirate GMs:

The reality is that the past two GMs here failed not because they were terrible talent evaluators (Bonifay was a good scout before becoming the Pirates' GM and is still a scout in the league for the Reds and I'll still argue that Littlefield was actually incredibly good at what his primary goal was, which was staying employed), they failed because they misplaced their priorities. Instead of focusing on what they thought the Pittsburgh Pirates needed to do to get better, they both fixated on what they thought other people wanted to see from the Pirates, be that the fan base, the ownership, or whoever else.

This paragraph resonates with me as a Reds fan.  The last 5 years seem to have been a jumbled mess of varying goals with similar outcomes.  Whether it was committing to rebuilding and then spending money just to look like it wasn't rebuilding.  Or building for the future while telling the public that the priority is to win now.  It never seems like the Reds have a clear, stated goal about the direction of the organziation.  In an attempt to placate everyone, they've managed to make nobody happy.

And it was with that in mind that my first reaction to the word that Hairston will be the starting shortstop next year was one of frustration at the impending failure of the move.  On the surface the move seems shortsighted because 2008 was a clear outlier in Cherry's career.  But then I realized that this move isn't shortsighted.  This move is definitely looking at the long term.  That is to say, Jocketty is not playing for 2009.  Signing Cherry to play shortstop is in essence Jocketty saying, well, we need someone to play the spot and Hairston is cheap.

This doesn't mean that Jocketty hasn't made mistakes this off-season.  Given that Burrell's agent contacted the Reds (i.e. he had some interest), it's a shame they couldn't have worked out a reasonable 2-year deal with him, even if it wouldn't be quite what the Rays gave him.  But it looks clear to me right now that Jocketty's goal was to be conservative this off-season and give the farm system another year to mature.

And you know what, I'm cool with that.  Not because it is necessarily the right thing to do in terms of planning, but because it is an actual plan.  As we've seen, trying to keep your feet in two different streams only gets you knocked over.  Committing to a single path, even if only for one year, may do wonders for this organization over the long-term.  Sure I'd like to win now, but I'll be much happier to win for a long time starting a year from now.

via www.talltimberroad.com

I know most of you think I am some cold Tin Man with no heart, but I too can be conflicted by what the data shows compared to what my gut tells me will happen.  Here are ten topics where I see one thing, but believe something different.

1. Aaron Harang will win a Cy Young in the next two seasons.  Despite the injury last year, I still believe that Aaron Harang is going to be a #1 starter this season.  My heart goes so far as to say that he could win the Cy Young, despite the fact that my head knows all that has to happen for that to occur.  I do think he'll go to the All Star game next year though.

2. Edwin Encarnacion is going to have a monster season.  While my head expects EdE to see some continued improvement this year, it's not to the level that my heart does.  My heart thinks he can be a very good hitter who sprays line drives all over the field and drives in 110+ runs.  My head is not so sure about that.

3. The Reds had to sign Francisco Cordero to that monster contract.  My head thinks that move set the organization back by locking up a lot of money for a small amount of innings.  My heart feels that the Reds needed to do that to make an impact in an area that had been a weak spot on the team for the two previous seasons.

4. The Reds should start Chris Valaika at shortstop and Drew Stubbs in center this season.  My heart is ready for the future to be here now.  My head feels like the topic isn't even worth commenting on.

5. The Reds should try to acquire Austin Kearns on the cheap.  My head thinks Kearns is still a decent player, but he's probably not worth the salary.  Besides, just because he had a couple of decent years with the Reds doesn't mean he can come back and succeed.  My heart likes to tell my head to shut up on this one.  Something inside me really wishes Kearns could go back to before the injuries and do it all again.  That young kid could rake.

6. Joey Votto will go to multiple All Star games.  My heart is head over heels for Votto.  It thinks he is going to be a superstar starting next season.  My head knows that the chances of him even making an All Star team are slim with Pujols, Berkman, Derrek Lee, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Howard all at the same position.

7. MLB Network is awesome.  My heart: "Wow, a network devoted entirely to the national pasttime."  My head: "Oh great, more chances to see Yankees and Red Sox highlights and more screaming talking-heads saying nothing worth hearing."

8. MLB needs a salary cap & floor.  My head realizes that smart teams can win in any conditions.  My heart knows that its favorite team does not appear to be one of those smart teams and would like some help.

9. The Rays will be contenders in 2009.  My heart loves the underdog and thinks they always have a shot.  My head remembers how much Colorado fell off last year and knows that the Yankees and Red Sox are doing whatever it takes to get better with resources way beyond what the Rays have.

10. The Reds will be contenders in 2009.  Okay, that's not really true.  My heart is listening to my head on this one, for its own health and well-being.

On what topics are your heart and head in disagreement?

Daryl Thompson takes the #7 ranking.  A few more names are added to the list and now we move on to #8.  Any names missing?

Who is the top remaining prospect in the Reds system?

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First of all, Happy New Year!  I know we're way into 2009 already, but I wanted to make sure I said it.

Secondly, I've been looking at the list of available free agents trying to figure out if there is a way the Reds can start to sniff a playoff spot by picking up one player.  It's unlikely, but what else do we have to talk about?

Before we look at the available players, let's look at the projections we currently have for the Reds outfield:

I haven't looked at other outfields, but I'd guess that getting only 5 wins from your outfield isn't all that good.  Clearly, the Reds need some help.

Can anyone bring that help?  There has been talk about Rocco Baldelli (0.7 WAR over 300 PA projected), Ty Wigginton (1.5 WAR/500 PA), and Pat Burrell (1.6 WAR/560 PA), but none of those players would be the significant upgrade that the Reds need to be contenders. 

In fact, the way I see it, only two remaining free agents could bump the Reds up enough to make a serious impact toward this season.  The first is unrealistic given his expected price tag.  Manny Ramirez (3.1 WAR / 595 PA) is going to get $20+ million a year and there is no reason the Reds should or could pay that.

The other player is someone that I've hesistant about, but now I think might be worth it.  If Milton Bradley (3.1 WAR / 462 PA) can play decent defense in LF, he may be worth the 3yr/$30 million that he is asking for to the Reds.  If you give him Dickerson's at bats and then bump everyone down to the next level in playing time, the outfield goes from a 5.1 win OF to 7.7 win OF.  This would also bump the Reds as a team up to a 82-win projection.

I know 82 wins is not much to get excited about, but I think we're starting to get within range of the playoffs in the "if everything goes right" scenario.  This is especially true if you consider that the Reds have two serious break-out candidates in Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto.  If both of those players reach their 70th percentile CHONE projections, the Reds will pick up another 2-3 wins.  Given a little luck (say, Bradley reaching 600 PA or EdE also breaking out big time), we could be in the hunt for the playoffs.

Or maybe the liquor hasn't worn off from New Year's Eve.

It looks like Juan Francisco fans finally found their slot, as he handily takes the #6 spot on the list.  Now we move on to #7 with a list that is heavy on pitching right now.  I think we're probably due for a pitcher to fall into place, but maybe Dorn or Mesoraco will catch your fancy.  Let us know your reasons in the comments.

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I've updated the projected Wins above Replacement (WAR) from this post last week to now include Willy Taveras.  In doing this, I noticed some math problems from my previous process, which should be totally expected from me.  However, now I've made it so that you can check my work if you are so inclined.  I have set up a Google Spreadsheet that will contain the 2009 Projected WAR for the Reds.  You cannot edit the document, but you can follow the formulas to check the work.  It's ugly at times though, so I warn you.  I will keep this updated until the end of Spring Training, but I won't likely mention it again unless there is a significant transaction.

For those that refuse to click links, here are the final results:

A couple of notes on the differences from the previous post.  For position players, everything is about the same.  I've added Willy Taveras and cut playing time for Laynce Nix.  It didn't change anything, though it did get us closer to the expected PAs for the season.  The only thing missing now is pitcher at bats and I'm assuming that is 0 WAR.

For the pitchers, I have added 42 innings that I have labeled as "Bad Innings".  I did this because we were missing about 40 innings and because I felt like the expected ERAs were a bit unrealistic.  I didn't feel like modifying individuals, so I simply added in some bad innings (expected ERA of 5.50).  I still don't think it's enough bad innings though.

For those that are wondering, the expected runs scored for this team is 734.  The expected runs allowed is 761, which projects to 78 wins.  That's pretty much in line with the expected wins from above which is 79.

Chris Valaika closes out a top 5 that ultimately had very few surprises.  I think it's safe to say that while the Reds may not have a clear superstar in the top 5, they've got a solid group there, all of whom could be important pieces for the next 5 to 10 years.

Now we start to move into some gray area.  I think it is unclear what order the next tier of prospects fall in.  Juan Francisco has drawn a few more eyes this off-season, but how much weight should we put on the improvements he appears to have made in the DWL?  Kyle Lotzkar and Zach Stewart have put up impressive numbers, but they are a lot farther from success than Daryl Thompson, so who knows how they should fall.  I'm interested to see how you all see the next set of prospects line up.

Let me know if you think there is somebody else we should be voting on at this point as well.

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