It looks like that even though the Rockies and Diamondbacks will be by themselves on the outskirts of the Cactus League this Spring, they might have another team to play ball with in Tuscon by 2010, as the regional sports authority is seeking to add a Japanese team to the mix. I'm not sure how practical this will wind up being, but it's not a terrible idea to deal with the departure of the White Sox. 

A blog entry by Troy Renck says that the Rockies budget may no longer have room to add Tim Redding or Josh Fogg, but that they remain interested in both. Ooh... it's time to insert a table. Since we're all about recruiting winners for the Rockies right now, let's look at how many Win Shares each of the primary bottom of the rotation candidates contributed over the last four seasons, courtesy of the Hardball Times:

While Smith's 2007 season on the whole trumped JDLR's and should be a good reminder to not count him out, Patrick Saunders and I are in the same camp when it comes to expecting to see the latter win the last rotation slot this Spring. Not so, Dan Szymborski:

Marquis isn't as bad as some statheads think, being a useful 4th starter with a decent health record, but not as good as some casual Cubs fans think, Marquis not being all that good, so while he has some use, with Sean Marshall not traded for Jake Peavy and Chad Gaudin hanging around, the team has rotation replacements. With Luis Vizcaino coming in, I suspect Mike Wuertz will be in a different uniform this season. The Rockies now look to have a Francis-Cook-Jimenez-Marquis-Smith rotation, which will be bland and mediocre as the team heads to another season of being a middle-of-the-pack team in a bad division.

I am, of course, a lot more hopeful that the situation is better than Dan paints it to be. The ZiPS projection for Marquis in Colorado has him coming in at a 5.03 ERA. I project our lineup (with Marquis batting) to score 5.3 runs a game, so I think we could expect to clear a .500 record in his starts, that's about as much as we could wish for from the fourth slot in the rotation and a good start to competitiveness in this division.

As was pointed out a few weeks ago to be the likely scenario by Tracy Ringolsby at the RMN, thanks to the Jason Marquis trade, Troy Renck and the Denver Post are now also on board that the 2009 Rockies will cost more than the 2008 team did. The projected payroll of $73 million represents a near 7% rise from last season, about 3% above inflation. Relative to the rest of the NL, the Rockies will certainly pass San Diego, but will remain behind Cincinnati, Milwaukee and San Francisco for 11th in the league in player salaries. Adding in the AL, it looks like the Rockies will have the MLB's 19th largest payroll next season, although a spending spree by the Orioles could dip us back to 20th.

I mentioned this previously in a couple of comments, but I think contention in 2009 could be pretty important for the long term health of the Rockies franchise. If the team wants to continue to raise payroll -and thereby maintain competitiveness- in future seasons when the farm system won't be as productive (which will likely be the case in 2010 and 2011) then it needs some added revenue to hold on to key players or attract a higher grade of free agent. Winning in 2009 will draw crowds, will feed the coffers, and will give the team more options in keeping the window of opportunity open. Operating a losing franchise in a down economy could exacerbate things by magnifying the typical fan exodus that follows poor on field performance. Without knowing for sure that the Rockies will rebound in 2008 given their decrepit performance in 2007, I can understand why the front office would be hesitant to go too far out on a limb with the current core, but this is a situation where I feel if the team's competitive in June and July, that taking a little more risk in trading for a rental upgrade would be warranted this summer as it seems to be a pivotal year for the division on the whole. The winner in 2009, will be well positioned going forward, whereas the also rans might have to keep a tighter lid on things going forward.

I'm not sure how the departure of Jeff Moorad from the Diamondbacks to (he hopes) the Padres will affect the rest of the division. D-backs fans tended to see Moorad as a liability for their club and put responsibility for the worst of the Snakes' moves over the last three seasons (the Eric Byrnes extension, for instance) at his feet rather than those of GM-for-life Josh Byrnes or new CEO Derrick Hall. Now that the fall guy has left, will the Snakes turn into the smartly run Red Sox-lite type of organization their fans seek, or will J. Byrnes and Hall be exposed as well meaning, but altogether average baseball execs? As a fan of a rival, I'm obviously hoping for the latter (or worse, actually) but it should be an interesting story to watch develop.

************

One of my tropes this winter has been that the Dodgers have been acting like a team facing a budget shortfall, from the comments by ownership and their early lowball stance on Manny Ramirez, to the back-loaded Rafael Furcal contract, to not being anywhere to be found when the best pitchers on the market were getting snapped up despite having a glaring hole in their starting rotation. Now with Andruw Jones' contract being re-worked to save the Dodgers $12 million this season, we have evidence that goes beyond the circumstantial. There's a lot about this situation that fascinates me. Both the Dodgers and Scott Boras have to claim that the Jones renegotiation and Manny Ramirez situations are separate, as otherwise they set themselves up for conflict of interest complaints by the players union or other concerned parties (the rest of the division, for instance) even though it's pretty clear the two situations are inter-related.

It does look at this point that the Dodgers will be able to proceed in their pursuit of Ramirez as the next puzzle piece to reconstructing last season's magic. Signing Ramirez should give them claim to the division's strongest looking lineup, but in the same way that their talented looking rotation doesn't hold up to a projected innings pitched test, this lineup when you project out plate appearances looks somewhat fragile and Loretta/Pierre/Young as primary bench options doesn't really impress me. I'm really wondering what kind of season Russell Martin is in for after being used so extensively in 2008. DeWitt at second base seems somewhat equivalent to McDonald in the rotation for them, in that Dodger fans' expectations for the rookie don't seem to always jive with realistic projections. Blake could become a downright hole at third if his power starts to fade. Ramirez himself can be an impact player, clearly he was in 2008, but the fact that no team except for the Dodgers really sees him as an upgrade worth actively pursuing should be a signal that his best years are also behind him. The Dodgers will likely benefit from this signing in 2009, but in subsequent seasons? Not so much, it's clearly a win now, pay later move.

My wishes for the Rockies new year in 2009. Just like with my own New Year's resolutions, some of these will be more realistic than others, some will be forgotten two weeks from now as silly wishful thinking, but hopefully a few will come about in reality:

Garrett Atkins - Will regain some lost discipline and shed his free swinging ways. In 2006 and 2007, Atkins drew walks in at least 10% of his plate appearances, in 2008 that number was down to 6.1%. If he wants to restore his value before he hits free agency after the 2010 season, he'll have to show himself to be a complete offensive player once more.

Jeff Baker - Will find some consistency. Baker's wOBA in April was .212. In June it was .432, in August .194, and in September .426. Let's smooth out the bumps this year, Jeff.

Clint Barmes - Will give at least a little offensive value away from Coors Field.

Taylor Buchholz - Will have ease in repeating his performance from 2008, and maybe find another level to climb to.

Aaron Cook - Will pound the strike zone with his sinker.

Manuel Corpas - Will regain what he had in 2007. Corpas gained some weight but shed a mile/hour off his fastball in 2008. That's got to come back since we're counting on him to play an important role in the bullpen this year.

Jorge De La Rosa - Will dominate from the beginning as he did in 2008's second half.

Samuel Deduno - Will see that his completely rebuilt bionic arm is better, stronger, more groundballier than ever.

Alan Embree - Will be an above average left-handed reliever.

Dexter Fowler - Will win the NL ROY.

Jeff Francis - Will not be snakebitten.

Hector Gomez - Will emerge as the next great Rockies position prospect.

Carlos Gonzalez - Will find the fertile field we call Security Service cures all his contact and discipline woes like a revivalist tent preacher.

Jason Grilli - Will continue to flourish in the middle of the Rockies bullpen.

Brad Hawpe - Will only be mildy distasteful on defense rather than downright putrid.

Todd Helton - Will cement a legacy with a comeback season for the ages.

Jason Hirsh - Will be good enough to force the Rockies to make some tough, but welcome decisions.

Chris Iannetta - Will make signing him long term an expensive proposition, but a priority.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Will emerge as the NL West's next great ace.

Joe Koshansky - Will be moved to a team that could give him a real shot.

Shane Lindsay - Will put it all together in 2009.

Jason Marquis (pending) - Will teach U-ball how to hit.

Ryan Mattheus - Will make us think that Corpas might be expendable next winter.

Franklin Morales - Will be 2009's version of Edinson Volquez, getting some BBWAA ROY votes for his great season despite being ineligible.

Juan Morillo - Will be traded before he gets lost to an end of April roster crunch.

Chris Nelson - Will not require 250 warm-up at bats before he gets going. 

Omar Quintanilla - Will actually find some purpose for being on the active roster.

Steven Register - Will have a zany escapade in Reno involving a safe, a nun, the mafia, and a Hollywood starlet.

Greg Reynolds - Will use that Stanford education to develop a new pitch, the splutter, and go on to fame and fortune.

Esmil Rogers - Will be one of the Rockies top ten prospects after a move to the bullpen.

Greg Smith - Will prove the doubters wrong. Smith could go a couple of different directions with the Rockies, he could be Brian Bohanon (useful) or he could be Scott Karl (not).

Seth Smith - Will make Rockies fans forget who their left fielder was in 2008. This will happen because in a foray into the Rockpile, he will unlock the secrets of mass hypnosis.

Ryan Speier - Will be an above-average right handed reliever.

Ryan Spilborghs - Will make Fowler have to be superman just to crack the lineup.

Ian Stewart - Will drive in the winning run when the Rockies clinch the NL West. 

Huston Street - Will be 2009's version of Brad Lidge.

Yorvit Torrealba - Will reveal that he's beginning a zen journey and show much spiritual progress. "What do you think of my catching posture?" He will ask, and Rockies fans will give him their unenlightened answer: "Like a pile of..,"

Troy Tulowitzki - Will start a string of seven consecutive All-Star appearances.

Eric Young - Will hit a homerun in his first MLB at bat in Denver.

You guys already know I'm not really a mathematician, but thanks to some people who are, people like me who aren't can just plug some numbers into a spreadsheet and seem a lot smarter than we really are. Well, at least that's what the advertisements promised when I ordered it on TV, even though it doesn't seem to work as often as I'd like. At any rate, one important part of projecting a team's performance is knowing who will be playing and how much. As GoRoxGo mentions in the comments to tpaine2009's diary on the right, one usually has to figure on 1440 IP for the pitchers, and 6300 PA's for the hitters. So before I can plug these numbers in and look smart, I need a realistic approximation of how many innings we're going to get from each of our pitchers in 2009. Figuring out the starter contributions in particular will give us an idea of what the bullpen's IP will be, so I'm going to start with that today and see where the discussion goes from there. Here are the questions I have about each of our starters:

• Aaron Cook projects to 182 IP from just about everybody despite throwing over 200 in two of the past three seasons, can we count on 30 more innings from Cookie than what's projected, or will injury concerns spring up and keep him near that 180 mark?
  
• Ubaldo Jimenez projects for 166-ish innings from CHONE and Marcel, but 195 from Bill James, the latter seems a lot closer to me after he threw 198 plus last season, am I right to think that or will he take a step back next season?
  
• Jeff Francis ranges from 153 IP with Marcel to 176 IP with James. He too has been capable of 200 plus in the past, but had some injury issues in 2008 that may not be completely resolved, what's in store for him in 2009?
  
• Jorge De La Rosa seems to me the most likely to dramatically exceed his projected innings, particularly the 108 that CHONE sees him throwing which makes almost zero sense to me logically since they have him starting 22 games at 4.50 ish ERA. This means that he'd be an average NL starter in quality that can't get through the fifth inning. Something's amiss there. I see 70 more IP than that in 2009, or thirty starts averaging just under six innings.
  
• I worry a bit about a carryover effect from a dramatic increase in Greg Smith's workload in 2008, so I think Bill James' 190 IP projection might be incorrect on the high side and see Marcel's 155 as closer to the truth. If I was a little more sure of Francis, I'd gladly sacrifice quantity for quality here.
  
• Glendon Rusch will pick up some of the workload, how many starts does he figure to get this season?
  
• The Rockies have a trio of other young pitchers in Greg Reynolds, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales, all of whom could probably be pencilled in for at least some work, but how much?
  

Right now, I wonder if this is me being my typical optimistic self, but I've pencilled in 143 starts from Cook/U-ball/Francis/JDLR and Smith. I've got Rusch picking up nine of the leftovers, and the other ten will be divided by Reynolds/Hirsh and Morales. I've given the 6/7/8/9 starters an average of exactly 5 IP for those starts or 95 innings added to the 885 I had being thrown by our current projected 1-5 (180 Cook, 200 Baldo, 175 Francis, 175 JDLR, 155 Smith). This would leave 460 innings for the pen, which would be the lowest Rockies total since 1998, which is why I wonder if I am being too optimistic in my assessment of starter contributions for 2009. I think maybe my Francis innings projection needs to come down, but I'm pretty confident in the others, what does everybody else see?

To paraphrase an infamous Dan O'Dowd statement from last season, maybe high expectations weigh down on the Rockies. So this could be a good thing. At any rate, with the Giants signing of Randy Johnson, one of the reactions I've seen (not from our level headed friends at McCovey Chronicles so much, but check out the comments at FanGraphs) is that this puts San Fran into the LA/Arizona range of contention for the NL West. I half agree with this. RJ helps the Giants, he'd help almost any team in the majors, even as a 45 year old because you just aren't going to find that level of pitching in too many other places. The half I don't agree with is who this makes the Giants competitive with. 

Looking at the big picture, the two teams that are hurt most by Johnson going to San Fran are in Phoenix, which already lost his production, but now must deal with the double whammy of it going to a rival, and Los Angeles, which still needs two starting pitchers, one to replace Derek Lowe, and one to insure they don't abuse their young arms, and now has its choices limited. Looking at the best remaining available free agent starters, the picture looks more and more like the Dodgers are going to have to rely on a major breakout season from Clayton Kershaw to remain at the top of the division in this department, and there's a pretty solid chance that they could be sliding back to the Rockies level in rotation contributions for 2009. CHONE projections see the Dodgers current top six starters (Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Stults, McDonald and Schmidt) at 94 runs over replacement. Those six aren't going to cover all of the Dodgers required innings by starters, and you're looking at sub replacement level starts from the pitchers further down their list. The Rockies current top six starters (Jimenez, Cook, Francis, Smith, JDLR, and Hirsh) meanwhile, project to 111 runs over replacement, project for more innings, and our next pair down the list (Reynolds and Morales) also project to provide over replacement level production in 2009. 

The math, and knowing the preferences of the FA's on the market, still doesn't seem to work for me that the Dodgers will be able to pass the Rockies in rotational contributions for next season and still sign Manny. Arizona's still ahead in the division in starting pitching, but they are shallow and RJ would have helped fix that for them. They still have the worst offensive outlook among the four contenders.

Right now, it's kind of shaping up in an interesting fashion in that the four teams project to be very close and have to hope for different unlikely things to go right to give them the edge.

Arizona: Stay almost perfectly healthy

Colorado: Not be terrible defensively

Los Angeles: Get huge performances from young starters Kershaw and McDonald

San Francisco: Not be terrible offensively