• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

Here we go again, let's see how many idiots vote for Dan Plesac this year?

Ricky is a obvious no-brainer, Big-Mac would be too if wasn't for that which shall not be named.

Amoung others, Raines / Blyleven should be in but would likely take awhile.

Jim Rice will get in... is there really that much of a difference between him and Parker / Murphy / Baines / Vaugh ? hell I'd take TJ / Smith / Trammell if Rice is in.

 

 

Just a thought, but with the M's unlikely to be good in the next couple of years, why should they hold on to Kenji Johjima and his 3/24 contract? instead of playing Jeff Clement there?

I mean Johjima was hit by bad luck this year so there is the problem of his trade value, but even then, him blocking Clement is almost as bad. while he's likely a better short term player than Clement . by the time the M's are ready to contend again he's probably not there anymore.

There's a few team that's pretty darn desperate for a catcher, the new M's FO would do well to try and fleece someone with Johjima. Boston? Detroit? either NY team?

I'm looking at the recent PMR posts, and comparing them with PMRs from last year, and what really struck me was how inconsistent players seem to be from year to year.

There are even cases where someone goes from really bad to pretty good (Hanely) or vice vera (Coco Crisp) and some known long time attrocities (Mr. Jeter) were able to make remarkable recovery in his mid 30s.  and while there seem to be some consistency, as a whole it just seem to flucate pretty wildly.

so while I agree that defense is the one area where some teams are really holding a edge over others, the question begs that how consistent are these results and what should we really make of it?  while obviously  a known good glove like Mark Teixiera would surely out perform the statue of Jason Giambi in any given year. on a more general bases, is it truely a good idea to base signings and trades heavily on defense?

 

 

A lot of buzz have been going around on the Blue Jays possibbly taking over the East this year. many "experts" took them over the Yankees, and quiet frankly. that's just an absurd prediction based on not facts and logics, but bias and false hopes.

Here's the reasons why the Jays will most likely be once again, a good but not great also ran in the East.

1. HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH: the Jays have been sunk badly over the last few years by health reasons. particularly last year, when their healthiest vet was Frank Thomas, a man who was almost finished by injury just two years earlier. beside Thomas / Hill and Rios and to a lesser extend McDonald, their entire lineup was basically struck down by injury.

Reed Johnson: major back injury, killed performance and now possibily career

Vernon Wells: major shoulder injury that completely killed his performance

Lyle Overbay: suffered a HBP on hand that ended up having surgery on. # took big hit after injury

Gregg Zuan: took pitch off hand. similar to Overbay.

Troy Glaus: foot issues.

So what do they do this winter? add in David Eckstein and Scott Rolen. for those of you who don't see the obvious irony of this ...

games played in 05/06/07

Eckstien (aka the god of grit and scrap!) : 158/123/117

Rolen: 56/141/112

it doesn't exactly take a scientist to figure out that neither of these guys have been anywhere near a picture of health over the last 3 season. Rolen's injuries have been espically serious. and both are on the downside of their career.

many of the injuries suffered on their player last year were pretty serious. it's not your typical hamstring pull or bad bruise . Well's shoulder injury was espically worrisome. and Overbay / Zuan's wrist operation could drain their power for a period of time. Johnson's back operation was clearly the most serious and we all know how that turned out. (he was flat out released)

the pitching side is hardly a much better picture, AJ Burnett is a obvious known suspect, and Dustin McGowan, the young pitcher they're counting on to be their #3 this year, had TJ in 05 and saw a huge inning jump from last year, their closer is still on the shelf and they already lost Casey Janssen for the year.

of their main players. only Rios / Hill hasn't a. been seriously injured sometime in the last 2 to 3 year. or b. really old. which brings us to the next point.

2. age: remember how the Yankees lineup is due for major regression (supposedly ) because of age? guess how many players on the Blue Jays lineup would be older than the entire Yankee roster? none? nope, 2. Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs are both older than the oldest Yankee player (Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera, Gregg Zuan is just 3 month younger than Jason) . they have exactly 3 guys under 30 in their lineup on most nights, Wells (29) Rios (27) and Hill (26). that's hardly the fountain of youth there. Gregg Zuan is actually older than Jorge Posada. and guess what, their starting 9 is actually OLDER than the Yankee starting 9 on average.

3. stats just doesn't add up. last year they had brilliant pitching and mediocare hitting. the pitching is unlikely to get better. particularly in the bullpen. it's a simple logic that guys like Downs and to a lessor extend Accordo will repeat their 200 ERA+ seasons from last year, and they already lost Janssen, the SP side may be a bit trickier. as Burnett / McGowan have the potential to be awsome . but Marcum and Litch's soft tossing ways are unlikely to be very sustainable, particularly Litch, who had a non-existent K-rate last year. and he's GB rate is only good but not awsome good. the Hitting may or may not improve. though it's hard to see Rolen being much of a upgrade given his health. while Eckstien is a likely upgrade with the bat (only because McDonald's non-existent offensive game) but he'll cough some back on defense. Matt Stairs have no hope of comming anywhere near last year's # (where he basically out hit Manny Rameriez) . though with potential improvements to Rios / Hill and a bounce back on Wells / Overbay it could happen. but unless they immediately goes back to his 2006 form that offense upgrade would be minimal at best.

barring a huge disastor. it's hard to see the Yankee / Bo-Sox run-differential change significantly from last year. where they were 97 / 101 pythag win teams respectively. to demostrate that that means. the Red Sox scored 210 more runs than they gave up last year, the Jays only a bit over 60, it doesn't take anyone with a brain to understand that the larger the difference the more likely your to do well . even with the Yankees playing horriblly in close games last year they were still only 3 games under their pythag. the Jays have a massive holes to close. and it's very unlikely that they do it.

They're off to a good start, and obviously anything CAN happen (well except maybe the Giants not finishing last and setting some records of low scoring this year) but the chances are just seriously against them. the people who are picking the Jays to finish 1st or 2nd in the East are most likely ignoring a little common math logic here. the only way it happens is if one of the Yanks / Red Sox collapses VERY badly (worse than the 07 Yanks, like the 06 Bo Sox when Becektt forgot how to pitch and Jason Varitek went down .) AND the Jays getting career years from someone (ala 06 Wells / Overbay) even then, the chances of them in the playoff is pretty slim. the current baseball division configuration has hurt them more than any team in the sports.

 

 

 

I like John's True or False segments. so lets do another one of these...

True or False: the Tiger's trades over the winter will NOT be enough to give them the best offense in the Majors. the Yankees will still outscore them.

 

 

seems like he'll make the Yankee bullpen.

an interesitng guy. he's 29. he's one of the few guys the Yankees plucked out of Indy ball over the last few year (they actually have 3 such players in ST. he , Edwar Ramirez and Justin Christian )

he's been putting up video game numbers not unlike Edwar Ramirez. he does it with a violent over the top deleviry from his 6'7 frame and long arm. coupled with a solid curve from the same angle maeks it quiet devastating despite only hovering in the low 90s.

with the way Giradi is using him (basically inserting him whenever they're a jam and the SP reached his pitch count) and that he's gotten out of everything so far. (only 1 base runner via single so far in 6 inning with 5 K) seems like he's a strong front runner for a spot.

it be a interesting feel good story to watch . if he and / or Edwar Ramriez manage to contribute this year.

it's interesting cause it seems that the 3 remaining spots on the Yankee pen. 1 will go to a ex-indy ball player . the other will go to a NRI (Billy Traber) . the Yankees aren't even the Yankees anymore heh. you'd think they be the one knocking Dotel / Linebrink out cold with a block of money.

ST# don't mean much and all. but Zito's line so far must be truely worrisome.

14.92 ERA, 14.2IP 21H 0K(!!) 10BB 4HR. it's not just 1 bad outting, try 3 out of 4. the comical K/BB ratio really raise an eyebrow. and there's really just nothing good you can take out from any of this.

he's periphals been going the wrong way for a looooong time now. but this is truely scary.

Anyone that's been watching give us a clue on what's happening here? trying out stuff is one thing. but something's really wrong when you manage to strike out no one after going through so many batters in 14 IP .

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

biggest surpise (or maybe not quiet) is the system has the M's finishing... LAST in their division.

the Yankee pitching does surprisingly well, and the White Sox pitching will look very ugly.

the rankings

ALE

Yanks
RS
Jays
Rays
Os

ALC

Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Royals

ALW

Angels
A's ( o_O)
Rangers
M's

NLE
Mets
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals

NLC
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros (heh)
Cardinals (ouch)
Pirates (tie consescutive losing season record)

NLW
D-backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Giants

started over at MVN is drawing plenty of responses across the net. so might as well start here.

http://tinyurl.com/2td26v

It's a pretty silly apples and orange debate as we're pretty positve that Cano could stay at 2B while Upton probably will never be back in the middle infield. they suit their teams perfectly as the Yankees have more trouble finding good players in scarce positions while the Rays simply need good players period .

Still though , seperating the comparason would be interesting, what do people really see in those two going foward?

Cano has essentially blown away all expectations in a way that only Albert Pujols probably surpases , I'm pretty sure Dave Cameron over at USS Mariners still cringe about that .280/.320/.400 player with terrible D in his prime comment in early 05. but it wasn't exactly unfounded at that point. still...

with essentially 3 pretty stable seasons under his belt Cano seems pretty easy to project, people laughed their arse off at the Rod Carew comp by Torre back in 05 but that seems very realistic right now. he's like Carew without the speed but more power.

River Ave Blues did a good search a few days back on Cano. essentially putting him up against all 2Bs in MLB history at the same age stage in terms of OPS+. and Cano is in the very very top echolon.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/jzHQ

Looking at this is pretty shocking, as Cano has essentially destroyed all non - Morgan / Carew / Baerga post war players. he actually has more hits / HR than both Morgan and Carew at the same stage (in less game too!) and just about everyone else for that matter save two guys... Baerga and Alomar.. Alomar mostly because he played more game.

the obvious sticking point in all this is Carlos Baerga, who just bombed after the age of 27. Roberto Alomar also declined sooner than expected. which seem to be the biggest worry right now. but still, on the list the 5 players above him only one player isn't in the hall, and he probably should be (Larry Doyle, a guy the vet committe probably missed ) of the guys blow him. it's still loaded with HOFer or should be HOFers ( Molitor , Sandberg, Frisch, Doerr, Alomar, Herman , Rose , ... yes he's hitting rate is better than PETE ROSE at the same stage)

It seems that if Cano can keep it together. he's  on track to cooperstown even at this stage!

BJ Upton is a harder case. talent wise (hitting anyway ) he's obviously above Cano, but not being sure of where he's going to stick on the diamond and that he's only had one very good season so far makes it hard to project. in terms of skillset he reminds me of Curtis Granderson (but then, that's essentially the text book toolsy black CF :P) he's better than Granderson.. but I can't see him taking to the next level of toolsy CF with awsome skillz... IE Ken Griffey Jr / Willie Mays ... or even Gary Sheffield (which is a good comp considering the position moves)... the difference is that those guys almost never whiffs. they were scary beyond all belive.. they were... errr what people thought Jim Rice was. :P

I'm having a hard time finding a reasonable comp for BJ Upton right now he's going to whiff. he might improve it but I don't thikn anyone would belive that he can take it to the Griffey / Mays / Sheffield level . maybe he could be Grady Sizemore? thats the problem though, these type seem to be a new breed of players. it's hard to find a reasonable comp in the past. Granderson .. Sizemore.. these guys are going to whiff, but they're also going to get on base hit for power and steal.

Anyone have a good idea ? finding a good comp for that type of hitter in the past?

The White Sox's moves so far....

1.Trade Garland for Cabrera
2.Trade lots of prospect for Swisher
3.Sign Linebrink

This look like moves of a borderline contender hoping to go over the top.

This was a list of team that had a worse Pythag record than the White Sox last year...

Oh wait... it's not a list...

Worest Pythag in 07

1. Tampa 67-95
   
2. White Sox 67 - 95 <----------

Yes, they were the second worest pythag team.... and i'm not just talking about the AL here. they were 29th out of 30 teams!!!!

They need HUGE improvements from SEVERAL spots to have any sort of a turnaround. frankly these 3 moves simply aren't nearly enough to even put them into the wildcard talk barring a absalute perfect storm. let alone having a serious shot at the division.