\FUCK YEAH HAPPY NEW YEAR MOTHERFUCKERS.

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Vasquez is a nice pickup for the braves. Real nice.

Carl Crawford came into Spring Training with high hopes and higher expectations, but despite the ray's success, Carl never really lived up to the expectations trhis year. Carl, who was a draft pick in 1998 in the second round and is now 27 years old, put up a relatively unsavory line of ..278/.319/.400, his lowest OPS since 2003, and an OBP that dropped a whopping 36 points from last year. These can be partly attributed to nagging knee injuries and an absolute collapse in his BABIP from .375 and a career BABIP of .330 down to .301.

His stolen Bases also went down, from stealing 45+ every year since 2003, down to a relatively pedestrian 25, no doubt because of the injuries and the drop in On-Base. Another probable cause for his low OBP is because of how often he swings at pitches out of the zone, a relatively huge 31% of the time. His Defense was amazing as always, because despite being injured this year, he contributed roughly 8 runs above the average LF. His isolated power was a little down from the past few years, but now that far below his career levels at .126.

I would expect a healthy Carl next year with a resurgence in speed, Marcel has him projected for .292/.338/.434 with 32 bags swiped, I would personally bump that SLG and SB tallies up a bit with more XBH and OBP oppurtunities due to speed, but I agree with the rest of the projection. Interestingly, at .143, Marcel has CC's isolated power around his career average, ditto with his BABIP. Of course this year has lowered the tallies on those numbers, so it might not be a big deal. Carl's '10 option will most likely get picked up, and this year will be big in determining if we will trade or resign CC in the '10 offseason with a year left on his deal.

.222/.287/.407, 4% Caught Stealing, One Hitter with Matt Garza.

He was a backup catcher, what did you expect?

Fernando Perez, who began the year in AAA and off the radar of most prospect lists. Fernando Perez's best weapon is his insane speed and his ability to defy normal BABIP standards. He also has good patience, posting a very good 18% O-Swing. Basically, he went from a relative unknown to a RF candidate for 2009.

Perez began the year in AAA as mentioned earlier, where he hit .288/.360/.393 in 511 ABs. Interestlingly to note, it was his 3rd year in a row where he posted a BABIP over .400 in the minors, further explaining his major speed. The stadium in Durham also has that monster wall that could have sapped his power, so keep that in mind. Perez played good D in CF all year, and snagged 43 bags.

As a september callup, Perez excelled, hitting .250/.348/.433 while posting a BABIP .100 points off his career average, at .293. He primarily played RF where he graded fairly well, and was a big speed threat. For next year, I would guess his BABIP would regress to the .340 range, and his power would rest at .420 SLG or so. .300/.360/.420 sounds about right, add in Defense, and Perez couls definitely be a formidable RF option.

Mr. Dan Wheeler first:

Wheeler was acquired during the 2007 trade deadline straight up for Ty "Wiggy" Wigginton. He started 2008 as the set up man to "Closer" Troy Percival, and featured flukey success in an 8th inning role. He was a flyball pitcher, and through the first month and a half of the season, only gave up 2 Long Balls on a staggering 35 Fly Balls, a regressable 5.7 percent HR/FB rate up to 5/17. 

Overall, his numbers look pretty ugly. 37% Flyball Rate with only a 27.1% GB rate, which in itself is asking for trouble. Throw in a 21% LD with a .191(!) BABIP, and you have a situation where a trade at peak value is the ideal situation. Wheels is a ticking time bomb, which is reflected in his FIP of 4.49 and a tRA of 4.72, both of which are well below average.

In the offseason, I would recommend trading Wheeler. He has a favorable contract that opposing GMs may value, and his, ahem, 3.12 ERA may coax some unwitting GM into thinking that he's worth a Jon Rauch type package. Frankly if we can get a decent package of one position prospect I would be ecstatic, especially with the packages that have been given out thus far in the winter.

Edwin Jackson next:

Edwin, of course was acquired in the Winter of 2006 in the Jackson/Tiffany for Danys Baez and Lance Carter trade, where Jackson is the best player involved pretty much by default. He was the 5th starter this year, and as such, did not have crazy high expectations. Like Wheeler, Edwin is a pitcher who grossly underperformed his ERA.

Edwin had a Flyball Percentage of 29% compared to a Groundball percentage of 38%, which while not awful, is not great either. His LD% 21.8% with a .301 BABIP falls around where it should be, maybe he is due for a tiny bit of regression. The serious problems are with his K/BB. He struck out 5.30 per 9, whichis very low, compared to a 3.78 BB/9, which is very high. Both of thos are pretty much a recipe for disaster.

Edwin seems like a prime candidate for either a trade or a move to the pen, a move to the pen probably will hide his high walk and high fly ball tendencies, while he would probably bring in a decent package in return. All in all, Edwin will probably fight for a roster spot next year with Talbot and Niemman out of spring training, and is probably going to need a big showing if we wants to continue in a rays uni.

Acquired last Winter for Delmon Young and change along with Barty and Eduardo Morlan, Garza pitched his first full season as a ray and pitched relatively well. Blessed with great stuff, Garza made strides in terms in terms of control and took a small step back with his strikeout ability and forcing groundballs. 

Garza had a FIP of 4.14, pretty much unchanged from his FIP of 4.18 in 2007. His LD% sat at 18.6% with a BABIP at .278, so his BABIP is worth around 30 points of regression, his HR/FB sat around his career average at 8.4%, but his GB% was down 6% to 41%. He K'd 6 per nine, down about a K from last year, and he walked about 1 less as well, improving to 2.88/9. His K/BB was better as a whole to a tune of 2.17, which is servicable, but something to improve on.

His tRA sat at 4.32, or 111+, a slight decrease from last year. One worrisome note about Garza is how his Swing Swtrikes have gone down to a career low. His fastball usage jumped this year, up to 72%, coming in a close second in terms of most used pitch was was his slider at 13%, followed by his changeup, than his Curveball. As such, his fastball velocity was down about a MPH and his secondary pitch velo was up on average by about 2 MPH each. 

For next year, I would expect him to regress in the batted ball field, while progressing in striking out and continued development on his control, and the control of his emotions on the mound. A FIP around 3.90 isn't out of the question, and a tRA+ around 120+ sounds reasonable, making him a servicable #2 starter, and yet again a key cog in the stacked pitching rotation.

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