regression to the mean Stories - Pinstripe Alley
Are the Georgia Bulldogs Due for More Lost Fumbles in 2011?
Our old friend kleph has taken a look a turnover margin in the SEC, and his charts vividly confirm the maddening reality reported a month ago by Senator Blutarsky, who noted that, of "the ten teams which improved their turnover margins the most from 2009 to 2010," the only one "which didn’t win...
Swisher the Athletic versus Swisher the Yankee
(Click to enlarge) Following a less-than-stellar seasons for the Chicago White Sox in 2008, Nick Swisher was picked up by the Yankees. Swisher responded by posting his best yearly OPS ever (.869) in 2009 and basically duplicated that performance in 2010. Some claimed that the move to New York...
Five College Football Teams That Won't be as Good as Advertised in 2010
Defense wins championships. That maxim has always been true, and it continues to be so, which is why there are certain teams in which I am disinclined to repose faith as we proceed toward compiling our preseason BlogPoll ballots. For clarity’s sake, I should point out that I am not saying the...
Henrik Sedin and True Shooting Talent
On January 22nd, I wrote about how Henrik Sedin's early-season goal-scoring 'breakout' was illusory. How has he done since then? G SH SH% Career 137 1036 13.2 Since Jan 22 7 50 14.0 Oct-Jan 22 21 99 21.2 Oddly enough, my mere mention of Henrik's likely regression to the mean...
Colorado's Hot Start
James Mirtle's post about the Colorado Avalanche's unexpectedly hot start got me wondering about historical precedents. Their numbers so far in regulation are impressive: W L T WPCT GF GA WPCT COL 9 1 3 .808 43 26 .732 Since 1967-68, there have been 36 teams that have started the season...
Ok, one last post on Regression to the Mean
While there isn't exactly parity in the NHL these days, the league is much more evenly-matched than it was during the "Original Six" era. What this chart shows is the regression to the mean of team winning percentage over a period of six seasons during the "Original Six" era and during the...
Last post on Regression to the Mean. I swear.
There are lots of statistical concepts that I was introduced to in baseball that I realize haven't been sufficient explored or even explained as they relate to hockey. "Regression to the Mean" is one of those concepts, and I probably should have posted this chart before I spent a week talking...
Praying for Regression
Cano20072008 BB%5.96.2 K%13.813.2 LD%16.917.4 GB%52.251.1 FB%30.931.5 Don't let NoMaas fool you. Robinson Cano hasn't been the worst player in the league, just the most unlucky. We'd expect BABIP to be LD% plus .120. Robbie's expected BABIP is .284, his actual...
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