Santana Likes NY

by John Amato on Nov 27, 2007 8:10 PM EST in News Comment 41 comments

Santana has a full no-trade clause and can control where he goes. Word is, he has interest in New York, but the Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels have to be considered attractive options.

While talks are said to be in the preliminary stages, there could be the makings for a deal with the Yankees.

Heyman said on WFAN that the Twins seem content on a three player deal from the Yanks and talked as if the deal is about done. That kinda makes me nervous. It seems way too easy. I have a feeling that outside of Hughes or IPK, (I'd rather keep Hughes at this point) the other parts will be somewhat different than we think---or---Minny is using the Yanks and looking elsewhere.

If I'm Cashman, I'd like to have a chat with Billy Beane about Danny Haren. He only posted a 15-9 record and a 3.07 ERA with the hapless A's. However, Santana is much better and I haven't seen much in print yet about what the A's asking price will be.

Mark Feinsand thinks the Yanks shouldn't trade Hughes for Johan:

If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't make the deal. I know it sounds crazy not to want to add a 28-year-old stud ace lefthander, but the price is simply too high. Dealing Hughes, who has been projected as a top of the rotation guy, is silly. Keep him, and use the $25 million a year to add pitching some other way.

What pitching is Mark talking about? Santana will go somewhere and I don't see too many more Beckett/Boston deals happening again for a long time with the changing financial dynamic in the MLB. The chance for a true #1 via free agency is very remote in the foreseeable future.

If Melky goes in a deal then the Bombers need to find a center fielder. One thing is for sure, the Yanks definitely won't make Johnny Damon their go to guy in center. If I'm Aaron Rowand, I wait till after the Winter Meetings before I make a decision. If the Yanks do pull off a move then he stands to make more money off of it than almost any other free agent with the Yanks in the hunt. If they stand pat, there's still Texas, Dodgers and at least KC in need of his services...

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Santana is a stud

I looked at his stats. He has a whip under 1.0 in three of the last four seasons. In the same period of time, he has two Cy Youngs. He's 28 years old. By the time he's too old we won't control the trinity either.

That he will take a lot of money limits the places were he can play. The Yankees can afford him. He says he wants to pitch in New York. Alright, he only said he likes to pitch in New York.

Still seems like a match made in heaven.

So the issue is not to overpay. I do not think we have to give Phil Hughes. Who else has a player like Phil Hughes to put into this deal?

To get Santana, we do not have to give the Twins a fair deal. We only have to outbid the other suitors. If we are lucky Santana will help us.

In this vein, I'm willing to trade Melky Cabrera. My feeling here is that we can afford a downgrade in offense if we can get a center fielder who places good defense. I feel Melky may improve as a hitter. Defensively Melky is an average major league centerfielder.

I would be willing to give Minnesota any other two prospects who're not considered to have a good chance to make the team this year.

I say play hardball with the Twins. They can't sign Santana. They can only trade him with his permission. If they don't sign him or trade him they lose him with no compensation or with a draft choice for compensation.

The Twins are the team in a hard spot. The Yankees are in the driver seat. Let's act like it.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Nov 27, 2007 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I sort of agree and sort of

disagree about us being in the driver's seat. Like so many of these deals, I think it comes down to us and Boston. They've got Bucholz or Lester + Ellsbury or Crisp plus Minor League Stud. We've got Trinity + Melky + MLS. Make our trinity member IPK and the Sox just need to counter with Lester + Crisp and they're in the hunt.

This is another game of chicken w/ Boston. The good news is that since they've got superior pitching, they're going to be less inclined to open a vein. Which means we have to give up Hughes.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 27, 2007 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Its not a game of chicken

If Johan says no to the Boston contract then the Twins are out of luck.

I think Kennedy/Melky/Horne or Kennedy/Melky/White/Betemit gets it done if the above reports are to be believed.

by randomize on Nov 27, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't throw Betemit

in the mix. He's our best pinch hitter.

by docgonzo on Nov 27, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We have the advantage over BOS

Both Ellsbury and Bucholz are untouchable, which leaves only Lester/Crisp, the latter of whom sucks ass. I think we can get away with IPK/Melky.

by docgonzo on Nov 27, 2007 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Analysis

A Few points:

You will have to give up Hughes or Joba. My gut tells me Joba is the one pitcher that is untouchable now.
The only untouchable NYY young hitter should be Cano.
You will have to give the Twins a fair deal. There are plenty of other bidders. The currency is young players here, not just cash. The Dodgers for one have more young talent than NY and the cash needed to sign Santana.
Melky is not a huge factor in any deal. He is a mediocre CF and not worth that much consideration. a .275/.340/.388 CF with average defense is not a big prize.
The NYY are hardly in the drivers seat. They have a shot at getting Santana if they will pay the price. But be honest, the Twins are in the drivers seat here. They have the best pitcher in baseball for sale. IPK + Melky + A. Jackson is not likely to be good enough. The Twins can do better than the NYY's 3rd best pitching prospect, an average CF and a decent propect. This is Johan f'ing Santana.

by KevinV on Nov 27, 2007 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

Santana is in the driver's seat here - not the Twins.

He can veto any trade he wants if he doesn't get 6yrs/$150M and doesn't owe the Twins the courtesy of helping them get the best prospects in return.

It's a misconception that the Twins hold all the leverage. It's Santana himself who holds all the leverage.

by anaconda on Nov 27, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point.

I was only looking at the teams, but that no trade does give him a lot of leverage.

However I think that any team that would be trading for him would likely want to work out an extension with him anyway. I doubt money will be the deciding factor here. Teams know that he would not be cheap.

The largest potential stumbling block I whether or not Santana would just not want to play some places.

by KevinV on Nov 27, 2007 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree to an extent

It sounds like Joba and Cano are the only untouchables right now, and that is as it should be. And if it takes Hughes, Melky, and someone else, I'd probably do it. But we should try to get it down to IPK if we can and also hold on to Jackson if possible. Not likely, but if we can do it, it'll be the best trade Cashman's ever made.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 27, 2007 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Follow up points.

If Cashman can pull that off he deserved an award, that would be a steal. I have to believe someone would offer more than that. Boston and the Dodgers come to mind I am almost sure would offer more than that.
Jackson seems like a good prospect at this point, but I wouldn't get overly excited about 1 dominant year of A ball.
The Twins seem to be pursuing Coco Crisp from Boston. That could be the seeds of a Santana deal. Add Buchholz and a prospect and you could have a better offer than IPK + Melky + Jackson.

by KevinV on Nov 27, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boston

I am worried about the rumored Crisp talks as well. But don't you think they'd rather have Melky than Crisp? And would Boston really give up Buchholz? He seems to be in their untouchable category more so than Hughes is in ours and about equally as Joba is in ours. They'd have to combine him or Lester with Crisp plus a strong infielder or pitching prospect to land Santana. Crisp and change wouldn't do it.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 28, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right.

Crisp and change for Santana is not even close.

BOS will probably not give up Buchholz, but who knows. There is nothing harder to get than an ace pitcher and Epstein knows that. Buchholz is definately the last younger pitcher BOS would like to trade though. Personally I'd rather have Buchholz than Joba.

As to which player the Twins would prefer, I can't be sure. There are plusses an minuses to each.

Melky:

Has hit slightly better recently.
Earns minimum in 2008, under control through 2011. 2009-2011 seasons are under arbitration, could get expensive with the rising cost of players.

Coco

Coco has hit much better in the past (see his 2004-2005 seasons). May do better out of the pressure of Boston.
A much better fielder than Melky.
Better speed than Melky.
Cost certainty: Contract: 2008: $4.75 million, 2009: $5.75 million, 2010: $8 million club option w/$500,000 buyout

It will probably come down to whoever MIN thinks will hit better.

by KevinV on Nov 28, 2007 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Analysis

We will not have to give either Hughes or Joba. The Red Sox won't give up Bucholtz or Elsbury, so I'd say IPK/Melky tops Lester/Crisp.
The Dodgers could drive up the price, but in that case let the Dodgers have him.
Melky is a huge factor. He doesn't have the potential of Elsbury, but the Twins seem to think more of him than Coco Crisp. The Dodgers don't have an MLB ready centerfielder.
Whichever team Santana wants to play for is in the driver's seat. In the last couple weeks the price has dropped from Cano/Hughes/IPK down to IPK/Melky/Jackson. That bodes well.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 27, 2007 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not what I read.

Stark says:
"There have been indications that the Red Sox might be willing to trade one, but not more than one, of their three studs -- Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. And the Dodgers would at least have to do some serious mulling about whether to give up one of baseball's best pitching prospects, 19-year-old left-hander Clayton Kershaw."

That is just one article of course, but you get my point. The NYY are hardly the only bidders. Other teams are holding back virtually no one. NY is at a severe disadvantage if it tries to keep both Joba and Hughes.
Even if the Twins like Melky more than Coco, their ability to acquire a CF with a silly first name isn't their only need. They could easily get OF talent from the Mets
I think whichever team will willing to pay the most will get Santana, even now. I could very easily see him go to the Mets or the Dodgers, both of those teams want to make a splash. Santana is not Petite, he has no special loyalty to the NYY. It only takes 1 team to overpay a player (see Zito, AROD {both contracts} etc.). That team isn't always the NYY.
I am enjoying my use of html bullet points.

by KevinV on Nov 28, 2007 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Heyman said

"The Red Sox are believed to have made Ellsbury off-limits, which could complicate their chances. They have Coco Crisp to offer, but the Twins would likely prefer the Yankees' Cabrera to Crisp. Boston is unlikely to surrender Buchholz, who threw a no-hitter as a rookie this year, but might have to consider giving up Lester if they have a chance at Santana."

I don't know how to use html bullet points, therefore I have none.

by docgonzo on Nov 28, 2007 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Poor doc

Make sure the pull down menu between "preview" and "post" is set to autoformat, then just put an asterisk in front of the line you want bulleted.
Use preview to make sure it goes through the way you want.

Mark Feinstein also says that the Red Sox have Ellsbury on the untouchable list. He also says the Angels are more interested in Miggy Cabrera.

Then there's this from today's Star-Ledger:

One person familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak for the teams involved, said he expects the competition for Santana to come down to the Yankees and Red Sox. The Red Sox, he said, might be willing to meet Minnesota's need for a young center fielder with Jacoby Ellsbury but are not willing to move pitcher Clay Buchholz.

The person said the Dodgers could get involved if they decide not to move young talent for Florida third baseman Miguel Cabrera and that the Mets do not seem to have the type of players the Twins seek.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 28, 2007 6:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Forgot the link.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 28, 2007 6:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bleh.

I hate conflicting reports.

However this guy does say that Hughes might be movable at this point. That reinforces my original point that NY is at a huge disadvantage if the put both Hughes and Joba off limits.

If BOS put Buchholz off limits, as NYY did Joba, that should make things pretty close.

What is the best package for MIN?

Ellsbury + prospects
or
Lester + Coco + prospects
or
Hughes + Melky + prospects

Thats pretty close. I might give the edge to to NYY at this point. But if Boston changes their mind and offers Lester + Ellsbury I think they win.I would hold out for at least that if I were the MIN GM.

by KevinV on Nov 28, 2007 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lester and Ellsbury

would be tough to beat, for sure. Maybe we can up the ante with Wang/Melky? I'd be for that.

by docgonzo on Nov 28, 2007 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One slight problem

would be the fact that Minny wouldn't want Wang. He is about to get expensive and would be considerably less effective on turf.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 28, 2007 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haren

like the article mentions should also be approached simultaneously.

If Haren costs slightly less then by all means take him.

Especially considering that he makes 15 million combined the next 3 years (if that).

by randomize on Nov 27, 2007 10:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The way I see it

The Yanks are the favorites here. If the Twins are insistent on Ellsbury, it's a dealbreaker for Boston. If they only want Melky from us, not Cano, and that's their opening ask (so we can negotiate down if it becomes clear we are in fact in the driver's seat), then we are in good shape. I would be reluctant to give up Hughes, like Feinsand and most of us, but we might be able to get away with IPK, Melky, and some minor leaguer. If that's the case, I'd pull that trigger immediately. We'll figure out CF.

I also agree that we should be simultaneously exploring Haren and Bedard--and Kazmir if the Rays are open to it. I think landing one of these pitchers could help bring Pettitte back if he senses that the Yanks are serious about building a stout rotation that can win now.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 27, 2007 11:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I am very skeptical at this point

Heyman almost seems to suggest that the Yanks are the clear frontrunners, but I find it hard to believe that Theo would seemingly let Johan call into the Yankees' laps that easily.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 28, 2007 8:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Moving too easily ...

I hate when thinks go so smoothly that even analysts believe the Yankees are frontrunners.
I like it better when we are the dark-horse.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 28, 2007 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just when you thought

global warming pre-empted the hot stove stuff, along comes this Santana bait.

We need to play offense and defense here. Offense obviously to get him to pitch in pinstripes and defense to keep him away from the Sox/Angels (lord would we hate to face him in the perennial playoff runs) or Dodgers.

He "likes" NY...and his numbers at the Stadium are outta sight...4 starts, 2-0 with sub 2.0 ERA.

Yeah, Phil the former franchise has loads of potential, but Johan has proven ability in his head and his left arm, youth and desire. You just have to take a successful track record over potential in any employment situation.

Melk is on my go list...good team player, but average in all respects.

What Levine said..."one year with a base pay cut".............. What Levine meant: "You're fired, Joe".

by mickey07 on Nov 28, 2007 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

call me retarded, but...

he did say he liked NY, can the mets afford this guy?

by smoly81 on Nov 28, 2007 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of course they can

and they have the position player prospects to get a deal done, but they don't have any pitching anywhere close to even Kennedy let alone Hughes.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 28, 2007 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right

when he says NY he means the Yankees. When the Twins say NY they mean the Yankees. The Mets got nuttin. I think our only competition is Idiot Nation.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Nov 28, 2007 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't discount...

...Minaya getting desperate and trading Jose Reyes. That would be an unbeatable chip, I think.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 28, 2007 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just to nitpick..

But can we stop mentioning Phil Hughes now?

The Twins asked for one of the three, which means Kennedy. No GM in his right mind would keep Kennedy over Hughes.

by randomize on Nov 28, 2007 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

I think we are mentioning Hughes because, as you said, he would be the most likely choice of Minnesota.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 28, 2007 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

According to Heyman

The Twins said:

One of Kennedy/Hughes/Joba
Melky
Another player

That implies that the Yankees have a choice of which of the 3 to put into the trade. So you offer Kennedy and keep the other two.

Kennedy/Melky/Horne. Kennedy/Melky/White/Betemit.

Either of those two would be absolutely awesome.

Also:

The Braves might want Melky for CF. Through http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/rosenthals-la-5.html

by randomize on Nov 28, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think this is like

the bidding for Dice-K's negotiating rights, where you have to put your best offer in a sealed envelope, but the fact that Minn asked for one of the trinity does not mean we automatically get to just throw IPK into the deal. We're going to bid against other teams, most notably the Sox. That's why most of the discussion here is over which package trumps what the Sox might offer.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 28, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I sort of have a hard time believing the Twins GM told Cashman "We need one of the Trinity." It was probably something more like "We won't accept anything less than Kennedy, and you should expect other teams to offer better deals than Kennedy + prospects."

Kennedy is the starting point, and we should hope the Twins don't get any better offers than IPK, Melky and whoever.

"It's great to be young and a Yankee"

by stillmonster on Nov 28, 2007 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why is it so important

to trump the Sox?

If they offered up Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lowrie would you counter with Hughes, Cano, Jackson?

This sort of thinking is reactionary and stupid.

You figure out what you want to pay and stick to it.

That's like saying "My neighbor just got a Ferrari by taking out two mortgages on his house, so I guess I should do the same"

If Santana can't be had, then Haren, Harden, Bedard are all available.

by randomize on Nov 28, 2007 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

less important

to trump the red sox.. more important that the sox don't land him..

You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth. -Mickey Mantle

by NumberSeven on Nov 28, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay...

Santana on the Sox would be bad, but how much are you willing to pay to keep him away?

As an armchair GM, I'd immediately remove Cano/Hughes/Joba from the talks and tell the Twins that asking for one of those 3 would be a deal-breaker.

So that leaves: Melky, Tabata, Jackson, Horne, White, Cox, Melancon, Kennedy, Marquez, Clippard.

Arrange them like this:

Group 1: Kennedy, Melky (MLB ready)
Group 2: Jackson, Tabata
Group 3: The rest.

Tell the Twins they can have two from Group 1 and two from Group 3 or two from Group 1 and one from Group 2.

If they say no, they say no. Make the same offer for Haren and see if Beane will bite.

When you say you want to keep them from the Sox, you're making a mistake. If the Sox want to trade away 3 blue chippers, let them. I'll keep the 21 year old making peanuts and mowing down Indians in the playoffs.

by randomize on Nov 28, 2007 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't have said it better myself

Your post pretty much sums up my thinking.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 28, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things

1.) LateInningRelief is right. The idea that the Twins want one of the Trinity doesn't mean that's what they told Cashman and that they'd take any of the three. It's the conventional wisdom that's out there. The three pitchers are commonly lumped together as developing stars but they're not equally valuable, desirable, or expendable.

2.) What would we want from Atlanta that we could actually get with Melky? I'd love to have John Smoltz, Jeff Francoeuer, Mark Teixeira, and Chipper Jones, but they're not going anywhere, certainly not for just Melky. And I wouldn't waste any prospects trying to pry something from irrelevant Atlanta when we should focus on Santana, Haren, or Bedard. Mike Gonzalez is an attractive reliever, but he's still recovering from surgery, I believe.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 28, 2007 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not get desperate

While Santa is a legitimate #1 SP, we don't need to break our bank to get him. If Hugues, IPK, AJax and Tabata are good as advertised, we need to hold on to them. I would only trade for Santana if the package of IPK + Melky + any one of Clippard, Horne, Marquez get it done. I would hold on to Hughes and others. I think Hughes needs few more years in the majors to be dominant SP.

by yankeesintexas on Nov 28, 2007 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs