Thinking About the OF

by jscape2000 on Oct 14, 2007 9:53 PM EDT in New York Yankees News

So I've been thinking about our outfield. All three positions are basically up for grabs since we have two options at each position. Because Giambi will be our DH, the odd man out in the outfield has the most value to us as trade bait.

Here are the viable permutations for next season:

Matsui-Damon-Abreu
Matsui-Damon-Melky

Matsui-Melky-Abreu
Damon-Melky-Abreu

Let me tackle the easy one: resign Abreu. Yes, he was horrible the first month and a half of the season. Yes, he has no ability to judge his distance from the wall.
But his ability to take pitches, get on base, and run the bases makes him the exemplar of the Yankees' offensive approach.

Also, Abreu's deal (while an overpayment) is only for a single year. This means that next off-season he comes off the books, and we can look at trading some of our surplus pitching for a young right fielder (or centerfielder if we're content with Melky in right).

Damon shouldn't be counted on to go back to centerfield for a full season, but he took to left field very quickly. By the end of 2007 his range made him a better left fielder than Hideki Matsui.

They both make the same $13 million per year through the 2009 season. They are both 34 years old.

Given Matsui propensity to over-swing in big situations, I would normally try to trade him. But Matsui brings in a lot of revenue on his own.

Matsui also has a full no-trade, while Damon has a limited no-trade clause.

So let's have Johnny tell us which teams are ok for him to be traded to:

On the current list, Damon divulged for the first time, are teams such as the Royals, Devil Rays, Marlins, Mariners and Twins.
No Red Sox or Angels.
"The reason why I picked the small-market teams," he said, "is because, for the most part, they can't afford to pick up my salary."
In other words, it gives him something of a defacto no-trade.
"Of course, if a big-market team like the Mets or Dodgers were interested, the Yankees could come to me and ask for my consent. And I wouldn't say 'yes' unless my deal was extended," he said.

So who's going to want Johnny Damon? Well, whoever loses out on the centerfield free agent market. The White Sox, Twins, Braves, Phillies, and Marlins are all going to be players in that market to some extent. And only the Marlins might be unwilling to take Johnny D if the Yanks pay about $6 million of his contract.

So what do I want in return? A catcher is priority one, whether they resign Jorge for 2008 or not, we need a young catcher as injury/age insurance. After that, all other positions seem equal to me. I don't have the resources of a Brian Cashman at my disposal. I read a bunch of prospect sites (Baseball America, SB sister-site minorleagueball, and MiLB.com, chiefly) and tried to pick guys who can help us in 2009.

Centerfielder Aaron Cunningham of the White Sox is currently playing in the AFL following a strong season (.308/.375/.509) in A and AA. You could start to build a package (+ pitching) around him, since he's too young to help the ChiSox this year.

The Twins match our dearth of position players, so we'd probably wind up with a package of pitching, but I would expect a deal as good as the Sheffield trade, though I'd take a better one. If we could work 24 year old catcher Jose Morales (.311/.366/.399 AAA) into the conversation I'd be ok with that, but he's a backup at best.

The Braves have a 24 year old left fielder named Brandon Jones who played very well (.295/.367/.490) in AA and AAA. I'd take him and a couple of mid-level prospects if his defense is good. He's playing winter ball right now in the Mexican League his probably due for a long look in Spring Training.

From the Phillies, I'd want to take a look at Greg Golson. Currently playing for the Saguaros in the AFL, he went only .273/.305/.426 in A and AA, but he's only 22 and he was rated the best defensive outfielder, best arm, and best baserunner in the Phils' minor league system. Toss in a decent arm and this is a kid worth gambling on.

The Marlins are an especially tough team for me to scout. Brett Hayes is 23 year old catcher and a defensive stud, but his bat has yet to catch up to his potential, and he was almost certainly rushed to AA this year. Which is the Marlins' problem: their best prospects are on the MLB team. because their farm system hasn't recovered from the fire-sale two years ago.

My final hope (equivocation?) is that if we can't turn Johnny Damon into some talented bats, we can turn him into enough pitching prospects that it won't hurt to pry Russell Martin away from the Dodgers...

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Comments

I think its

overvalueing Damon to expect a similar or better package than the Gary Sheffield deal.

Unless of course you are saying that we didn't get enough in the Gary Sheffield deal. I don't think that Damon's career .288/.352/.433 is equal to Gary Sheffield's .296/.397/.522

So then I think that alot of the trades you are suggesting are too much for Johnny Damon. What would you be willing to give in addition to Damon if those trades were on the table. Cash? Someone slated for our Bullpen... Ohlendorf? Britton? If the trade were for a catcher we could possibly put molina in the trade mix I guess, but I don't see Damon as commanding huge value on the trade market.

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Oct 15, 2007 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

I think that

Damon is marketable as a centerfielder. This has more value than Sheffield who came back as a DH/ maybe right fielder.
Damon is healthier than Sheffield. Damon is also not the malcontent that Sheffield was.

They make the same $13 million and I think the Yanks would pick up 2 or 3 million for the next two years.

Remember that the Sheffield trade (which I supported and continue to support) only yielded a high ceiling pitcher who needed season ending surgery (Sanchez), a AA reliever with a good fastball and mechanics/control issues (Whelan), and a singel A pitcher who is not showing signs of greatness (Claggett).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2007 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I am not sure that we can

market Damon as a centerfielder. Earlier in teh season we were talking about Damon being finished as an everyday centerfielder and transitioning to being an everyday leftfielder type.

Or do you think that Damon could be an everyday centerfielder on a noncontention or mid level team?

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Oct 15, 2007 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Trading Damon

Or do you think that Damon could be an everyday centerfielder on a noncontention or mid level team?

Not at his age or his price. A team that is rebuilding will not want to take on that salary, especially if he's not a part of the team's future. If the Yanks want to trade Damon, it will have to be to a team that can justify paying that much for his services. I don't see many teams out there that would.

This is why the Sox did not want to give Damon as much money or as many years as the Yanks did: Damon was likely to decline quickly.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

The post mentioned

the Phillies outfield prospect. We might be able to get a team like that to take Damon. They would be hoping that Damon could provide stability untill their stud prospect can take over from him.

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Oct 15, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the Phillies

would sooner resign Aaron Rowand.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Just so you know,

it's "Abreu", not "Abrue."

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 1:10 AM EDT reply actions

Jeez

I did that every time I wrote his name in this article didn't I? On the ball as always...

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2007 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions

hmm

I honestly don't think that the yankees would get a good value for any of those guys. And none of them are the type of players/personalities that the yanks should trade just for the sake of trading (like sheffield/wright/unit).

by malkmusisgod on Oct 15, 2007 2:32 AM EDT reply actions

Even if you're right

that doesn't mean they won't make the trades discussed. Our most tradeable asset is young pitching. I think there is a whole list of pitching prospects we could trade.
Karstens
Rasner
Briton
Desalve
Wright
Edwar Ramirez
Beam
Igawa
Henn
Bruney
I'm not saying trade all but trade some in the deals being discussed. We know some of these will never realy pitch for the Yanks. Others are expendable.

Let's hit the gym and get ready for spring.

by Cbeck3 on Oct 15, 2007 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Couldn't get

A beer vendor for Igawa unless we wanted to eat close to $40 XL. Most of these guys are second and third tier players with limited upside. I don't think we would get much back.

As for Damon, his age, arm, contract make him highly unattractive--especially when you have younger, potentially cheaper fa talent out there.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he is right however

because I think Damon will be cheap if he is traded, because the yankees will have to send cash, and I think that for the packages Jscape has selected we will need to add something else. The something else doesn't need to be another 1st tier player.

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Oct 15, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Almost everyone on that list

is virtually worthless, with Britton and to a lesser extent Edwar being the only exceptions. Just because the crap/fringe of our farm is tradeable doesn't mean that any team will give up anything of value for them.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Oct 15, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade Giambi

He is by far the "oldest" in performance. You'd have to pay nearly his entire salary but he might welcome a return to the state of California. Then Matsui could dh and serve as a backup of. It effectively adds a roster spot.

Damon impressed me in the second half and I think an offseason and dh time will help Matsui stay fresh.

by stusviews on Oct 15, 2007 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

Which team

has a need for a 36 year old DH with foot problems?

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree that it would be tough to

impossible to trade Giambi, but counting on him to play regularly next year in any capacity rates up there with counting on Pavano to take a spot on the rotation. He wasn't even the Yankees's prime PH last season so how can he be expected to be a regular DH?

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Oct 15, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not

counting on him for regular time. But his age, position, salary, and no-trade make him unmovable.

That's part of the reason that it's important for Brett Gardner to develop quickly. When Giambi goes down Matsui DH's and Gardner plays left- which he's been doing a few days a week out in Arizona.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2007 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. That's why that needs

to be taken into consideration before moving either Matsui or Damon or not picking up Abreu's option. My guess is that Giambi is going to find a way to get DL'd for a good part of the season and won't be a factor, and like Pavano should not be seriously considered as a usuable piece.

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Oct 15, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

This is what happens

when you sign big name free agents to long term deals for a ton of bread.

They have no choice but to play him as much as they can and hope he contributes.

Cashman made his bed after 2001 when they signed him and now he has to sleep in it for one more season.

by anaconda on Oct 15, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I have a hard time believing

that Cashman was holding the reins in 2001 when the Yanks signed Giambi. I'm going to bet that was a Boss-motivated decision.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

You could be right

but the overall point still stands.

If it was the Boss who insisted on Giambi, the team still has to sleep in that bed until he's off the books.

by anaconda on Oct 15, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course it was

As any good revisionist Cashman apologist will tell you, any move that doesn't turn out well was a Boss move and any move that does turn out well is a Cashman move.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Oct 15, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

That's unfair and you know it.

It should be pretty clear that Steinbrenner and his Tampa crew were predominantly running the show until Cashman signed his new contract after the 2005 season. Big moves, such as the Giambi and Sheffield acquisitions, were likely not motivated by Cashman.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

There is some truth to it

but I think that the effects are remarkably overstated in an effort to erase Cashman's mistakes. Ultimately, every GM is at the mercy of the owner, but I don't think that Cashman should be absolved of all blame for poor personnel decisions.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Oct 15, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

(ammo for pfisty, sorry)

I seem to recall that at the time of the Giambi signing, the player George was harping on was David Ortiz...but the braintrust said Giambi would be the better acquisition since he could both DH and play first base (at the time).

Been trying to find any kind of source for that...but 6 years later it's a bit difficult.

by detroit yankee on Oct 16, 2007 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Just check the dates

George did harp on getting Ortiz- before the 2003 season.
Cashman said 'Where will he play?' because we had both Giambi and Nick Johnson on the roster.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 16, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

What???

Are you telling me we couldn't put an enticing package featuring Giambi, Igawa and Pavano?

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree.

with Giambi, trade some pitching that we have a surplus on and that way the amount the team has to pick up is less.
Say Giambi and Igawa to angels for a bucket of BP balls and a case of Gatoraide.

by beantownbosoxh8er on Oct 15, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Dream trade...

How about shipping Betemit and Damon to the Marlins. Eat their salaries for the duration of the contracts and get Miguel Cabrera in return who the Marlins seemingly can't afford to keep.

All this assuming we lose A-Rod

Actually if we don't lose A-Rod lets do it anyway, but move Jeter to CF, A-Rod to SS and play Cabrera at 3B.

Honestly I don't have a clue if that would work but it's a cool thought...

by TLVP on Oct 15, 2007 12:22 PM EDT reply actions

There is no way

that the Marlins trade Cabrera for the measely return of an old, declining CF and a utility infielder.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

By "dream"

I assume you mean "crack-induced hallucination," right? This package might be more ludicrous than some of those "Johan Santana for a rosin bag" scenarios from last week.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Oct 15, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

IMO

get rid of Matsui, i mean they probably never will because of the Japanese marketing but I would much rather have Damon in LF then Matsui

And if there are no good offers they might as well keep everybody since they'd be pretty much paying their contract anyway

by Soriano NY 12 on Oct 15, 2007 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

Why keep Giambi?

He's more of a liability now than anything else. Cut him, platoon Damon and Matsui at DH. Done.

by PsiFighter37 on Oct 15, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

Even the Yankees

aren't going to pay someone $20M to sit at home.

They are going to try to squeeze as much production out of him as possible.

They aren't going to get rid of him. Stick it out for one more season.

by anaconda on Oct 15, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd use him as a bench bat, then

When he's been playing, he hasn't demonstrated that he can hit anymore. A .240 average doesn't deserve regular playing time. The only way I give him more playing time is if someone teaches him how to hit the ball to left field. I'm tired of seeing groundouts to right field.

by PsiFighter37 on Oct 15, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe Giambi tried that

and it made him less successful. Giambi's MO has always been hitting HRs and walking a ton. Teaching a 37-year-old dog new tricks will likely do more harm than good.

I say trade the guy who has more apparent value (Matsui) and let Giambi continue to DH. Considering that his BABIP was abnormally low (.263 this year) I find it highly unlikely that he will continue to hit for such a low average.

by Willton on Oct 15, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I say have him play every

inning of spring training at 1st or better yet catcher until his heel explodes and then DL him recoup a chunk of his salary through the insurance.

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Oct 15, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt the Dodgers will trade Martin

I'd love to grab him, but it would take a crazy package to get him..ANd we'd Milano too,.,

by John Amato on Oct 15, 2007 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

I want ...

whatever you are smoking. I've soured recently on Jenna, and am looking for a new hottie to worship. Alyssa is a baseball junkie and she's hot. Unfortunately she dated Glass Carl. That hurts her marketability with me.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Garp! You're the Man!

Garp -- love your take on Giambi. I personally feel as though I'm in my own personal little hell as a Yankee fan watching Giambi as a Yankee. He has been a disaster on such a huge scale that it has made me nostalgic for the Ed Whitson days... MY personal best day of any year will be this time next year as it will be then that Jason Giambi will have ceased to be a Yankee. Having now safely put the Carl Pavano years behind me I'm half way to nirvana with the last year of Giambi's deal upon us in 2008.

by Bixby on Oct 15, 2007 7:12 PM EDT reply actions

Yankees FA

As for outfield, I am for letting go Abreu. If we do that, we would need a new rightfielder as Matsui and Damon cannot handle that position. We definitely need to trade either Damon or Matsui, but we will have to eat some of their salary.

I heard that the Yankees are ready to offer both Rivera and Posada a 3 year contract worth around $42 million. I would rather do a 2 year with an option given their age. Let's take Clemens and Abreu off our payroll and go from there. I sure hope to get rid of Giambi also.

by yankeesintexas on Oct 15, 2007 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

It was a side note in

the yankees mailbag that they post on the official mlb site but it said that Damon sold his New York appartment.

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Oct 15, 2007 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

If you let abreu go

where do you get a right fielder?

This guy is an important part of our vaunted offense. I think you have to pick up the option.

Let's hit the gym and get ready for spring.

by Cbeck3 on Oct 15, 2007 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Outfield

I am just saying that although Abreu is a patient hitter that may suit the Yankees, he is not worth $16 mill given his declining skills. I am hoping 2008 NYY will have more of Paul O'Neill, Tino, Brosius type of players who won championships.

by yankeesintexas on Oct 16, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait a minute

O'Neill:
'96-.302/.411/.474
'98-.317/.372/.510
'99-.285/.353/.459
'00-.283/.336/.424
Brosius:
'98-.300/.371/.472
'99-.247/.307/.414
'00-.230/.299/.374
Martinez:
'96-.292/.364/.466
'98-.281/.355/.505
'99-.263/.341/.458
'00-.258/.328/.422

The only real outlier there is Brosius' '98 campaign. I find it incredible that this team won the World Series despite giving 470ABs to a player with a sub-.300 OBP. And we bitched about Cairo...

So now let's compare:
Arod- .314/.422/.645
Abreu- .283/.369/.445
Minky- .277/.349/.440
Phillips-.292/.338/.373

While I see a slight decline in slugging, the current team has a much better OBP.
(I'm currently reading a book that suggest slugging is actually more important than OBP in short series, more on that when I'm finished).

I'd say that Abreu, decling skills and all, is a Paul O'Neill type.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 16, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

ehhh..

1. Damon, your not going to get a ton out of him, thinking the Dodgers would trade Martin for Damon ? try throwing in like... Phil Hughes and then they might start talking. the Dodgers are dumb and all, but they aren't going to trade the next Jorge Posada for a 34 year old Damon. and they locked up Juan beeping Pierre for 6 more years anyway ROFL.

In such trades, might as well take some high risk youngesters, either really young prospects and/or injured onces with big upsides.

2.Giambi, how soon we forget that Jason Giambi raked like Lou Gehrig from 2000 to 2003 and ummm. led the team in OPS as late as... LAST YEAR!...... if anyone on this team might hit significantly more than 30HR in a season other than A-rod , it's him. do you hear the Red Sox fans bash David Ortiz for his Knee problems? guess what, Ortiz never OPS+ over 200 like Giambi

In all seriousness, as long as A-rod and Po is back next year, the OF situation isn't really that serious, we're going to rake barring some injury that can go even WORSE than the last couple of years, it's the pitching that's giong to count. and that's giong to take some patience and luck and confidence.

by RollingWave on Oct 16, 2007 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

There is a rumor

That the Phillies are interested in acquiring Garrett Atkins from Colorado (the Rockies have a big prospect at 3B - Ian Stewart). If Philly fails to sign Rowand, assuming they don't get Hunter or Jones, get involved with that deal.

My proposal: Atkins to Philly, Damon (w/ enough cash to make him a $8/9M per year OF) to Philly. Colorado get Carlos Carrasco (Phils top pitching prospect) and Clippard. Yanks get Adrian Cardenas (2B/SS from PHI), Chris Iannetta (C from Colorado).

Chien-Ming Wang+Phil Hughes+Tyler Clippard+Joba Chamberlain+Dellin Betances = the future

by marcbouch9 on Oct 17, 2007 9:04 AM EDT reply actions

That's an interesting though

Colorado has good depth at catcher with Torrealba and Bellordin on the postseason roster.

Looking at Cot's Torrealba's going to be a free agent after this season. They might opt to let their two young guys take the job. Torrealba turns 30 in July.

That said, Tyler Clippard and Cash might get it done, but I suspect his struggles takes some of the luster off of his star.
I don't know enough about these catchers to decide whether I'd trade Cox or Melancon for one of them.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 17, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

Marquez included would help seal it. If I am the Rockies, I re-sign Torrealba since he did so well with the young staff.

I'd prefer to keep the bullpen arms as we have had little luck with bullpen help via free agency. I think the plethora of young starters allows several to be expendable. I can't see the Yankees not doing everything in their power to sign Johan Santana next year, or, at the very least Sabathia or Sheets...not to mention Peavy, if he hits the market. I think that gives you one of those three, Wang, Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy. At that point, you can dispose of some of the others to improve elsewhere and wait on Betances, Sanchez or Garcia to see who is the better of the three.

Chien-Ming Wang+Phil Hughes+Ian Kennedy+Joba Chamberlain = the future

by marcbouch9 on Oct 17, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions