So I happened to catch about 15 minutes of Mike and the Mad Dog this afternoon following the Yanks' game and quickly realized exactly why I can't stand listening to them.

For whatever reason, Mike Francesa and Chris Russo have destroyed millions of their listeners' brain cells by spending extensive time on the topic of Joba Chamberlain's "immaturity" because of his emotions on the mound as well as in the dugout after a rough outing.

Pete Abe provides a brief but accurate synopsis of their argument from Thursday afternoon:

• Joba should never pump his fist when he pitches well. That shows the opposition up.
• Joba should sit in the dugout and "stare out on the field" after he gives it up and not cover his head with a towel. That shows too much emotion, too.
• Joba didn’t say he got even with David Dellucci today. But that’s what he meant.

 

Now I understand the need to fill five hours of [dead] air-time on a daily basis, but I'll never understand why this is such a big issue for these guys and why it somehow reflects on Joba's lack of maturity.

Perhaps you'll recall Harlan Chamberlain last season in Kansas City when he watched his son (with tears streaming down his face) take a big league mound for the first time and had a fist pump of his own after a long fly ball descended into the glove of Johnny Damon at a critical part of the game.

Joba's emotion is a trait he got directly from his own father and I don't see how it reflects negatively on his character.  A much better way to measure Joba's level of maturity is the way he handles himself with the media, his relationship with his teammates and coaches, and, of course, his actions off the field and in his private life.  Until I see evidence that proves otherwise, every indication shows that Joba is a good kid who handles himself extremely well in all aspects of life.

Players cannot always change who they are emotionally and mimic Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter in order to simply cater to a couple of sports radio hosts who have nothing else worthwhile to talk about after a Yankees win.

For the record, I don't care if players like Carlos Zambrano, Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, or [gasp] Jon Papelbon show displays of emotion on the mound after a strikeout because it really isn't a big deal.  As Pete Abe later pointed out, why is a display of emotion not only acceptable but encouraged in other major sports like football, hockey, golf and basketball but generally viewed as taboo in baseball?

I don't get it and probably never will.  I'd be happy to read anyone's explanation telling me why I'm wrong.

Discuss.

A great article up over at the Hardball Times using Pf/x data to see what pitches (type and location) Robinson is producing different results on.

Click the link to see the pretty graphs; here's the salient analytic point:

Last year, at age 22, Melky hit: .273/.323/.390, 24 2B, 8 3B, 8HR.
PECOTA projected him to hit (50th percentile): .276/.336/.406, 23 2B, 8 3B, 8 HR.
He's on pace to hit: .293/.363/.485, 24 2B, 0 3B, 30 HR.
At the same number of career ABs (but at age 25), Bernie hit: .289/.384/.453; this was a huge improvement on his previous season (.268/.333/.400).

Are we seeing a comparable step forward from the Melk Man? Or is he playing so far over his head that he's due for another atrocious month (see, April and September 2007). Or is Melky really having a breakout year?

What do you think?

I was starting to let myself worry about the team's lack of offensive production, after all, they've played basically the entire season without one or more of Jeter, Posada, and Arod.

They've scored only 123, putting them on pace for a measly 738 runs- which would be a 230 run regression from last season, and light-years below the necessary projections to stay in contention.

So I looked back over the last fives seasons to see how our current April stacks up.
The worst offensive months:
2008- 123 (April)
2007- 131 (April) 968, 13.5%
2006- 118 (June) 930, 12.7%
2005- 123 (April) 886, 13.9%
2004- 104 (April) 897, 11.6%
2003- 106 (June) 877, 12.1%

The final number is the total number of runs the team was able to score by the end of the season. A perfect split would produce 16.7% each month.

The Yankees, with either older lineup playing in cold weather, have a considerable history of slow starts, especially offensively.

Our team BABIP is .282. Last season it was .318; in 2006, .315; in 2005, .297; in 2004, .285; in 2003, .295.

May will bring happier times for the offense, the team, and the fans.

I made two bold predictions over the offseason (actually, I'm sure I made more than two, but I have two I'm going to actually bother to remember and check in on regularly). First, I predicted that Phil Franchise would win more games than Jon Lester. So far, I stand to lose that bet 0-1.

The bold prediction I'm really interested in was Mike Mussina.

In case you forgot, I predicted a good-to-great season to put the cap on what I think is a Hall of Fame career: 180IP, 150K, 1.25 WHIP.

Well, after tonight's action, Mussina is 3-3 (253 career wins) in 32.1IP, 12K and a 1.27 WHIP. Over 32 starts that puts Moose on pace for 172.1IP, 64K, and (obviously) 1.27 WHIP.

Can Moose maintain this pace?

His groundball:fly ball ratio is at its highest (1.41) since his last year as an Oriole. If he can keep it there, it's a good sign- if he regresses without adding some Ks, there will be trouble. Opponents are also slugging .480 against him, frighteningly high and the highest since data became available in 1999.

Even more troubling, his Line Drive percentage is half a percent higher than last season, when opponents recorded a .340 BABIP. This season, with a 22.6 LD%, their BABIP is only .247- which would be a career low for Mussina. I think Moose was unlucky last year, and while his good fortune won't last all season, a BABIP around .300 isn't unreasonable.

Of course, I remain optimistic that Moose is clever enough to continue his early success.

does bad hitting beat bad pitching?

I've used the new Gameday pitch break and pitch f/x to look at what some of our pitchers have done this season; tonight I want to use it to look at what our hitters have done.

In the top of the second Jason Giambi took a pitch the other way (woot!) and out of the yard against Jose Contreras. It was the fourth pitch Jason saw from Jose (in the game and in the AB), and the third fastball. After a first pitch ball (89 mph fastball, 5" break) low and away, Giambi fouled off an inside fastball (91 mph, 4" break). Contreras hung a changeup at eye-level (80 mph, 8" break), then came back with an outside fastball (91 mph, 5" break).
The speed and the break weren't the problem. In the clip I saw at MLB the pitch might have caught a little too much of the plate, but it wasn't down the center, and every Yankee fan knows that the scouting report on Giambi is that he pulls everything. Location -wise, that pitch was a tenth of an inch from being a groundball to the second baseman. The only complaint I could come up with is the approach- Contreras throws a fastball, a slider, a curve, a change, and a split; you can't show Jason Giambi 3 fastballs in 4 pitches. But, that feels like a stretch to me.
Verdict:
Good hitting beats good pitching.

In the 7th inning, Octavio Dotel was brought into the game with the bases loaded; he struck out Captain Clutch on 5 pitches (all fastballs [cutters?], two of three strikes swinging]). Up stepped Bobby Abreu. Dotel stuck with his fastball (he also throws a quality slider and a show-me change). 92 mph, 5" break in the right hand batters box. 90 mph, 3" break in the right hand batters box (but closer to the plate). 92 mph, 4" break, down the heart of the plate. Even on the mlb.com replay, that pitch screams "Hit me or I'll call you Cairomack."
Verdict:
Bad hitting beat bad pitching.

After Dotel served up the long ball to Abreu and then walked Matsui, Ozzie Guillen brought in Matt Thornton. Thornton got the third out in the 7th (5 pitches), then walked Robbie Cano to start the 8th (8 pitches), struck out Jason Giambi (5 pitches), gave up a single to Ensberg (6 pitches, and 17th straight fastball!), and got Melky Cabrera to ground out.
Johnny Damon saw 3 fastballs: 95 mph, 4" break, high; 95 mph, 3" break, way outside; and, 95 mph, 4" break, a touch on the inside part of 'right down Broadway,' which happens to be just where Johnny Damon likes his fastballs (just ask tomorrow's starter Javy Vasquez). To make matters worse, it was Thornton's 31 pitch of the night (for comparison, imagine Farnsworth throwing 30 pitches- there'd be no Yankee fans left because we'd all have died of stroke and coronary failure), and his 28th fastball. Somewhere along the line, Johnny had a really good look and knew to do with what was coming.
Verdict:
Bad hitting beat bad pitch.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Yanks hitting was doing exactly what it's supposed to do: punish mistakes. But, just as I'm not ready to declare Moose or Giambi's careers over in April, I'm not ready to declare any slumps busted after tonight.

As every PA regular knows, there is no bigger supporter of the Joba needs to be in the rotation argument than me.

That said, I was perusing ESPN this morning and Buster Olney nails my problem with Hank Steinbrenner by opening his big mouth to the NYT:

 

 

Although I agree that Joba needs to make the switch in 2008, that switch cannot be done right now.  Brian Cashman has already come out today and made that clear.  Joba has an innings cap of roughly 140-150 IP and it's best for the team to utilize him the best they can until they find a viable replacement for him in June or July.

I was a big supporter of promoting Joba to the major league club last season and helping out the pen as long as his long term future was as a starter.  He was already closing in on his innings cap and the Yanks were desperate for help.  Of course, nobody in their right mind could have expected Joba to thoroughly dominate as he did.  Hank doesn’t seem to understand that the Yanks may not have made the playoffs in 2008 without his enormous contribution.

Above all, my biggest problem with Hank speaking so “candidly” is the inevitable repercussions his words are going to have on Joe Girardi for the next two months.  Every time Hughes, Kennedy, or Moose has a bad night, you can bet the ranch that the “Joba in the rotation” question will be asked by a Kim Jones or George A. King III.

Hank’s words are a distraction and unnecessary and he should know better.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t and that’s why Hank really needs to shut up altogether and leave all public relation duties to Brian Cashman.

#25 seems like the hot topic of the off-day, and I feel somewhat compelled to weigh in.

SG over at Replacement Level puts out a strong case for why Giambi isn't finished based on his BABIP and K:BB ratio (short version, Giambi hasn't been as overmatched as his bad luck on balls in play makes him look).

The always bright and positive Steve Lombardi of WasWatching voices his displeasure with Giambi, um, diplomatically (the title of his article is "Giambi's Batting Skills Are Worthless And The Yankees Should Cut Him"). Steve builds his case by looking at Giambi's batting line broken up according to the type of pitcher he faced (power, finesse, or average). Steve points to Giambi's "overmatched" numbers against power pitchers, but neglects to provide a context for those numbers.

For example, Giambi's 2007 against power pitchers saw him post a .539 OPS, compared to a aggregate .790.
Big drop off, right?
Yes, but not so huge when compared to the drop offs for Arod (1.067 vs 966), Melky (.718 vs .573), Abreu (.814 vs 649) or Cano (.841 vs .673). Other guys (like Jeter and Damon) hit the power pitchers better than finesse guys; it's just a matter of preference and pitch selection. But I understand how lesser performance against "big game pitchers" like Beckett or Halladay could linger in a fan's memory as poor performance in the big spot.

My own argument against overreacting to the Giambi 'situation' is a simple one: in 227 plate appearances last season, Bobby Abreu was hitting .230/.310/.290. Jason Giambi in 2008 has 59 plate appearances- barely a quarter of Abreu's tepid start. Abreu finished the year .283/.369/.445.

It's a long season, and it's far too early to cut someone off for dead.

	Fastball	Curve	Change	Slider
1st	11 (6) 92-93, 3"-4"	1 (0) 75, 15"	1 (0) 84, 6"	---
2nd	19 (14) 92-93, 3"	6 (2) 71-74, 16"	1 (0) 81, 8"	1 (1) 79, 10"
3rd	6 (5) 92-93, 3"-4"	6 (3) 71-75, 15"-16"	---	1 (1) 80, 11"
4th	10 (6) 91-93, 3"-4"	2 (2) 71-72, 16"	---	2 (1) 78, 9" 11"
5th	11 (6) 90-92, 3"-4"	2 (1) 73, 15" 16"	---	---
6th	14 (10) 91-93, 3"-4"	1 (0) 71, 16"	1 (1) 79, 8"	1 (1) 78, 11"

Key: # pitches thrown (strikes+foul+in play) mph, break.

Special notes: Generally, I've followed the Gameday pitch identification (which sports a freshly refined algorithm so that Gameday will only classify pitches as types the pitcher actually throws, so no more cutters for CMW [ps. I read that over at Hardball Times, but I can't find the article]). However, in the second inning Hughes threw a pitch at 79 mph with a 10" break. Gameday called it a curve, I'm guessing it was a misidentified slider. I saw a similar pitches in the 3rd, 4th, and 6th.
Interestingly, Gameday correctly identified a slider in the 4th.

Hughes only walked two but only struck out one, and he gave up nine hits. I have two theories rolling around in my head, either could be right or wrong and they are not mutually exclusive.

First, I'd say Hughes relied on the fastball too much. He threw fastballs for 71 of 97 pitches (73%). He only really flashed the change and slider; the slider is supposed to be a plus pitch for Hughes. What I didn't hear was which pitches he felt he had working- was this the pattern he planned to follow from the start, or was this improvised when he got to the pen and figured out he didn't have all his pitches working tonight? I won't pretend to be smart enough to guess.

Second, I think the long waits between innings hurt Phil. Cabrera threw 21 pitches to 6 batters in the top of the 5th, 30 pitches to 6 batters plus a coaching visit in the 6th. Staying sharp is something we see everyone struggle with, it's just one more aspect of the game that our 21 year old ace-in-training has to master.

I'm also encouraged because Hughes threw first pitch strikes to every batter until the 3rd batter in the 4th inning (technically, Brian Roberts hit the first pitch to start the game, but after that it was all 0-1). We definitely saw less nibbling out of the Franchise, and with his stuff, that's only going to lead to good things down the road.

Jon Heyman has a piece over at SI.com detailing the worst free agent contracts in history.

Among the things he got right, he wrongly called Jason Giambi's 7 year, $120 million contract the 5th worst of all time.

That's ridiculous enough, but then Heyman gives his reasoning: Let's unpack this. Giambi apologized for being a distract (and, we infer, steroid use) after his name was tied to Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds in the BALCO case.

Somehow, the millions those two have earned pre- and post-BALCO are not up for consideration (maybe because they don't play in New York at the moment?). All the other steroid users in baseball playing out huge contracts get a pass- Pudge (playing out a 13 million club option) and Sheffield (2 years/ 28 million remaining) leap to mind, and Heyman wrote an article on Angel's 4th outfielder and ousted CF Gary Matthews Jr (4 years/ $40 million remaining).

If it's steroids that Heyman is worked up over, I also resent the intrinsic assumption that Giambi's pre-FA numbers were a good investment. I know it's wrong to criticize Billy Beane, but replace Giambi's otherworldly seasons 1999-2001 with merely a league average 1B, and the A's miss the playoffs in 2000. If steroids are the issue, where is the list naming Giambi's .321/.440/.585 line with the A's among the worst bargains ever?

Is it the dollars that are appalling? Giambi has eaten up 12% of the Yanks payroll the last few years- less than Manny and the Red Sox (15%), Burrell and the Phils (14%), and Morris and Pirates (20%, though he was signed as a Giant and traded), just to name a few.

I know the issue can't be Giambi's production- in the 6 full seasons since he joined the Yanks he has averaged 5.9 wins above replacement each season. I'm not pretending that his .269/.416/.529 line with the Yanks justifies his salary, but that line ranks among the elite hitters in the league. And while Giambi has been injury prone, he's played most games in 4 seasons, and two half seasons, and we knew he was an injury risk when he signed.

To lump him in with the worst contracts ever is absurd.