More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Mariano liked his 'penmates.

Browse more photos »

Confession:

I didn't find this season's bullpen nearly as exciting as the '08 version.

First, CC, AJ, Andy and Joba contributed more than 170IP more than the 2008 top 4 starters of Moose, Pettitte, Rasner and Wang.

Then, Phil Hughes locked down the 8th inning- 51IP, 0.86 WHIP, .228 SLG against, 11.4K/9.

And finally, while the 2008 squad was very good (.235/.310/.373), the 2009 'pen was even better (.231/.308/.393). Plus, the '09 team did it with only 21 pitchers while the '08 team used 24 men.  Furthermore, 14 guys relieved in 10+ games in 2008 and only 12 guys did that in 2009.

What should the bullpen look like in 2010?

I see that people are trying to link the Yanks to high profile relievers like Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.  Haven't we learned the Karsay/Farnsworth lesson?  Every once in a while it works out right and Tom Gordon shows up, but relievers are the hardest players in the game to predict.  Not only would either Soriano or Gonzalez cost most of the Yanks' payroll space, since both are Type A free agents the Yanks would lose their first round draft pick next June.

The Yanks are stacked with pitching prospects, and the simplest way to employ those prospects is to throw them in the fire.  Joe Girardi has proven he's the right guy to handle a Cashman style cost control bullpen, shifting roles regularly to put the hot hand in the game.

And even better (or worse if you get excited by leadoff walks, line drives, and blown saves), of the pitchers who relieved for the Yanks in 2009, only Josh Towers (5.1IP), Anthony Claggett (2.2IP), Brett Tomko (20.2IP), and Jose Veras (25.2IP) will not return.  Coke and Marte will be back as effective lefties, and Houdini Robertson, Alfredo Aceves and Brian Bruney will be ready as the right-handed bridge.

Shall we sign Soriano to a Farnsworth style deal?  Wouldn't that make 2010 more exciting?

NYPost:

"We have evaluated, now we will organize," Cashman said. "Then we will meet with ownership."

Cash will go talk to Hank and Hal, get authorization for next season's budget, and then dive into the market.

Because the Yanks are moving so methodically, the mood around baseball seems to be that this will be a long free agent season.  No one wants to be the team to set the market, and no free agent wants to sign until the Yankees have made their offer. 

The consensus that next season holds the free agent gems, may deflate the market even more- if you know there's going to be a party on Saturday, you don't spend all you funds on Thursday night.

Then there is the talk of collusion. Ken Rosenthal reports on the escalating war of words between Scott Boras and MLB Chief of Labor Relations Rob Manfred.  Boras thinks the game was worth $6.3 billion dollars, and that there are a dozen clubs with $200M revenues fielding teams for around $70-$90M (what they receive from revenue sharing and MLB's tv and licensing contracts).  All of these numbers have allegedly attached to them because baseball doesn't disclose hard numbers, a point sure to come up in the next labor talks.

I've hated Scott Boras for years.  His willingness to pick and choose facts to present each client as a baseball immortal, his eagerness to move successful players to dead-end franchises for an extra nickle, and his enthusiasm for non-traditional contract loopholes and incentives are all repugnant to me.

But if Scott Boras becomes one of the central figures in a movement to expose baseball's finances and move more of the revenue from the owners to the workers, he could have a Darth Vader moment.

I'm a big believer in Pythagorean record as a test a team's quality.  I like the simplicity: reduce runs allowed or increase runs scored to increase winning.  Hitting, pitching and defense are already built into the analysis.  (Click here for a down and dirty explanation).

I was surprised to find that 2009 was not a marked improvement over the previous 3 clubs.  The pitching and defense was actually worse than the 2008 squad, and whole team was roughly equal in 2006 and 2009.

Could it be that the big transformation wasn't CC or AJ or Hughes in the pen. Certainly, both players were essential to replacing Mussina, to cover for the loss of Wang, the 5th starter debacle and a slight regression by the bullpen (87 OPS+ against in 2008; 92 in 2009).  But those problems at the back of the rotation mask the improvements at the top..  It was the addition of Tex and the return of a healthy Posada and Matsui that really put the team back in the driver's seat.

On the other hand, the Yankees significantly overshot their expectations in 2009, so unless the team improves on one side of the ball or the other, we had better brace for a step back in 2010. 

Having Mariano in the pen (and a strong pen in general) seems to skew the Yanks to the top side of the projections (because they lose fewer close games than other teams). While I expect Joba/ Hughes/ mystery pitcher to outperform 2009 Joba/ Wang/ Mitre/ Gaudin, I'm worried that will be balanced by a step back for CC or AJ.

Johnny Damon was a decent offensive left fielder but a terrible defensive one.  Offensively he was 24.5 weighted Runs Above Average, and defensively -9.2 runs below average according to UZR, for a net of +15.3 runs.  Matt Holliday netted +39.6 runs in 2009.  Jason Bay netted +23.0.  My preference, Mike Cameron, netted +18.8 as a centerfielder.

More photos » by Gary Stewart - AP

Browse more photos »

What made Billy Martin so great was also what made him so volatile: his intensity. It allowed him to give a kick start to his teams, yet made it so difficult to keep it going.

From a great article on the managing style of Martin -

Billy Martin was the most fearless manager in baseball history. In 20 years of managing, he never backed down from a challenge. As has been well documented by others, Martin consistently caused dramatic improvements to his squads immediately upon arrival by pushing them hard...

Martin's approach had its downside. He pushed his teams so hard they could not keep up with his pressure. Hiring Martin was like pushing too much voltage through a light bulb: for a brief while it burns brighter than otherwise possible, but it soon shatters unless the excess electricity is removed. Despite his impressive starts, Martin never lasted longer than three years in any managerial stint.

Imagine Mike Scioscia, then triple his aggressiveness -

The ultimate Billyball moment came on May 18 [1969] when both [Cesar] Tovar and [Rod] Carew stole home plate in the same inning - in the same at-bat. Carew stole his way around the bases in that plate appearance. At the plate during this maniacal base running was Harmon Killebrew. Harmon Killebrew! It boggles the mind: With one of the greatest home run hitters of that or any other generation up Martin wanted his men running wild.

We would never see a manager like that today. Too much research has been done to show how reckless stealing bases can be (especially stealing home).

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Browse more photos »

I know we discussed it ad nauseum during the playoffs, but I have to mention one last thing about video review (probably the last time before next season).

Instant replay/replay review/video review, whatever you want to call it, it's been a success. It's been around for a little more than a season (beginning in September of 2008), and has only been used for disputed homeruns. Of 65 disputed calls since then, 22 have been overturned (34%)*. 34% may not seem like much, but it is. Homeruns can completely change a game. To think that umpires have been blowing a third of (disputed) homerun calls in the past is disturbing.

Unfortunately, general managers didn't have enough poor umpiring in the playoffs, so video review will remain limited to homeruns next year. If Tim McClelland's atrocious non-call in the ALCS wasn't bad enough, I shudder to think what kind of call will motivate expanded video review.

* source: The 2010 Bill James Handbook

July 30, 2008: Jorge Posada had rotator cuff surgery

September 22, 2008: Hideki Matsui had surgery on his left knee

October 7, 2008: Mariano Rivera had surgery on his throwing shoulder

March 10, 2009: Alex Rodriguez has the first of two surgeries to repair his hip- upon review, the injury heals so well that the second surgery is canceled.

It seem routine, doesn't it?

• Torn cartilage in the right knee at age 19.
• Surgery to remove loose cartilage in left knee at age 21.
• Suffers injury to left shoulder during the World Series at age 25.
  
• Suffered from abcesses in his hip at age 29.  Missed the end of the regular season, but returned to play in the World Series.
• Surgery to remove cartilage from left knee at age 31.
• Right shoulder surgery at age 34.

On the other hand, if Mantle's knees had been better he probably would have been drafted to fight in Korea and not have won the Triple Crown.

DiMaggio, Ruth, Red Ruffing, and Ron Guidry all missed time with major injuries.  Hard to imagine what the Hall of Fame would look like if all the players had been given the benefit of modern medicine.

I don't want to pick on Let's Talk About Tex Baby, but something he wrote yesterday got me thinking:

We just haven’t had high quality prospects. Who from the Yankee farm system has gone to another organization and become anything more than a mediocre player, other than Soriano who was already a star when we traded him? Nick Johnson? Juan Rivera? These guys are average at best.

The idea that a top flight farm system should be churning out stars is a sentiment I hear quite a bit, but I think it's failing to recognize the value of a role player.

Johnson has always been fragile, and Rivera is mediocre, but mediocre in Major League Baseball is quite valuable.  Nick Johnson has put up a 125 OPS+ for his career, Juan Rivera has stayed slightly above average.  The players who were significantly better than these guys were when they were with the Yankees and the couple years after are Hall of Fame caliber players.

The arbitration process rewards superstar caliber players.  Derek Jeter made $5M in his 4th season, $10M his 5th season, and then signed his current $189M/ 10Y contract.  Ryan Howard earned $10M his 3rd season and then signed his $54M/ 3Y deal to avert a $14M v $18M arbitration showdown.

An Arod, a Sabathia, a Teixeira are all sound free agent investments because they are transcendent players.

Free agency is expensive when you are paying premium prices for the mediocre talents.

When a setup man like Kyle Farnsworth costs $5.5M and a backup catcher like Molina costs $2M.  These costs compile quickly, so there are no resources to deploy for a transcendent player who  addresses an immediate need like Carlos Beltran.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Michael Appleton - AP

Browse more photos »

2010 is the last year of his current contract. Barring a catastrophe, Derek Jeter will surpass 3000 hits sometime in 2011.

Jeter will be 37 in 2011. Only five 37+ shortstops in history have ever had an above average offensive season, and only two have done it more than once (Honus Wagner and Luke Appling).

The question really comes down to how much the Yankees think Jeter will maintain his abilities as he enters his late-30's.

I'm usually of the mind to let players finish out their contract before re-signing them. If the Yanks re-signed Jeter now, if would be off a phenomenal year where he would command top dollar. If 2010 is a 'lesser' season, it'll cost less to bring him back.

What could be a fairly big reason to extend him now (meaning this off-season) would be to avoid the potential year-long distraction of the MSM talking about it every other day (and obviously the possibility, however slight it may be, that Jeter signs elsewhere).

A lot also depends on how many years Jeter wants. I'm sure the Yanks don't want to go more than 2-3. What if Jeter wants a five-year extension? I'm all for sentimentality, but not if it hinders the overall team.

Another factor is the advancement of shortstops within the farm system. Frankly, there aren't many. Carmen Angelini and Jose Pirela are the only high-ceiling shortstops in the system (and that's not saying much). Sure, Ramiro Pena could play great D, but he won't hit anywhere near Jeter.

Could a trade or FA acquisition happen? Could Hanley Ramirez be acquired?

What's the solution?