If you haven't heard the rumor, the Yankees are "quietly" making Nick Swisher available for trade. I have no idea if there is any truth to this, nor do I know how available Brian Cashman has made him.  However, if this rumor is correct, I think I may know why. 

Compare Nick Swisher over the last three seasons to a certain Mystery player X:

Want to guess who this mystery player is?  I'll give you a hint: he just reportedly turned down a 4-year, $60 million dollar offer.

Jason Bay is the second-most coveted, and likely to be the second-highest paid, outfielder/hitter on the free agent market this offseason.  And while he's a fine player, I'm just not that convinced he's that much better than Swisher when you factor in defense and age.  And that's where it gets interesting. 

Bay is 31 years old, and at this point it seems unlikely that he'll sign for anything less than 5 years/$75 million.  Swisher, on the other hand, is only 29, and is signed for a total of $25.5 million (including a team option) for the next three years. 

Given the choice between two good (but not elite) outfielders, most GMs would probably choose the younger, cheaper one. Brian Cashman is no doubt aware of this. Swisher is a great value, based on his production and his salary (and who the Yankees gave up for him), and  I have a feeling that his availability hinges on the number of teams who have pitching, need hitting, and don't want to spend eight figures in the free agent market.  

This is pure speculation, but the Atlanta Braves fit that description perfectly.  They have holes in at least one outfield corner and first base, in fact, the lack of offense probably kept them out of the playoffs in 2009.  They also have six good starting pitchers signed for 2010.  Tommy Hanson is untouchable and Tim Hudson just signed a three-year extension.  While they'd love to move Derek Lowe, his salary is probably too high, and nobody seems that interesting in Kenshin Kawakami.  That leaves Javier Vazquez (pass) and Jair Jurrjens.

One would think that any team would be reluctant to part with a 24 year old pitcher who's posted stellar ERAs the past two seasons.  I'm not suggesting this is probable or likely.  However, when a team is dealing from a position of strength to fill a glaring need, strange things can happen.  And I think Cashman may be dangling Swisher in hopes of a deal like this falling into his lap. 

If you are a Twins, Marlins, Nationals, Rays or Orioles (insert other small-market team here) fan it may not be that your team does not have enough money, it is that they are not spending it.  All of the aforementioned teams are in the top six for operational income.  In fact the Marlins and Nationals had almost $45 million of revenue respectively!  If the Marlins spent about $37 million of that money their payroll would have been approximately the same size as the playoff-making Rockies, while making only $9 million less. That is approximately the same amount as Nick Johnson's contract over two years, and he played a whopping 25 games for them this year.  So next time you hear someone say that the Yankees bought their championship, tell them that their team had the money to do it too.

Courtesy of that uber-yankee fan (note that statement is heaped with sarcasm), Jeff Passan

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I thought I would throw this out there.  How about Ben Sheets and Rich Harden?  Sheets when healthy is a dominant pitcher as is Harden. If we could get them for Say 3 years for Harden and 2 years for Sheets with heavily incentive laden contracts we have protection for the back of the rotation, we have the ability to let the young kids develop even if they have to go down to AAA (Joba) and when one of them is injured the other will probably be healthy.  This gives us rotation depth to once again not have to overuse CC and AJ and Andy during the regular season and makes sense financially.  This also allows us to make a move at the deadline if we want to and have the flexibility to go after Halladay next off season when he is a free agent.

This just in from Bob Nightendale of USA Today... The Yankees are hearing offers for Nick Swisher.  I'm not really sure who they'll have play right field.  They could put Melky there and have Gardner play center.  But then that puts big pressure on them to resign Damon and Boras knows exactly how to handle that situation.  Do you guys have any thought?  Should the Yanks trade Nick Swisher.  I don't really think the Yanks should trade Swisher unless he is part of a package to get someone good (like Crawford or Doc Halliday) into NY.

We've been thinking about Holiday and Bay.

Well Cleveland is rebuilding.  What would you give for Grady Sizemore?  I'm sure the trade would take quite a bit of talent but he's a great player.  He's a class act.  I was surprised how young he is (27). 

By the way wasn't the trade when Cleveland got him one of the great trades of all time?

Should we tell Cash to get on the horn?

My friend who goes to Endicott College in Beverly Mass (right next to Glouster or however the hell you spell it)  just texted me about this.  Apparently there is a huge uproar in the Boston area (I wonder why?).  She said news cameras are all over her campus which is about the size of a Brooklyn back yard.  There are about 1,000 kids at this school and from what I can tell, a lot of CT and NY transplants.

The e-mail:

TO students@endicott.edu <students@endicott.edu>

 

 

Please join us next Monday, November 23rd 4pm outside the Post Center. We will be celebrating the Yankees winning
the World Series. There will be a fire hydrant painted in their honor….

Regards,

Kim Peckham
Director of Student Activities
Endicott College

Personally, I think the Yankees winning is a cause for global celebration.  Its good for NY, the North East, for baseball, rap stars and famous basketball players who like the wear Yankees gear even though they are from other cities.... etc.  Painting a fire hydrant not only honors the Yankees, but firefighters as well so its a doubly fitting tribute.

"Bar stool sports" has the consensus Boston reaction:

This is in the heart of the North Shore. Like what’s the week after that? Painting a fire hydrant to celebrate when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor and killed a shitload of Americans? The only possible explanation for this is that this is just a ruse to round up all the Yankee fans in one spot and then exterminate them. That has to be it.

Does that make anyone else smile?

Bottomline is the students need to riot or something to make this right.

Sorry Boston.  We had enough of your riots when you won the world series.  You dont get to riot when youre KNOCKED OUT IN THE FIRST ROUND. What is it with Mass holes and rioting? 

The balace is once again right in the Universe.

New York Yankees

Everyone on Pinstripe Alley loves the Yankees (well, maybe not trolls). And for the most part, we love the players that are ON the Yankees. However, there are many more players around baseball. 29 other teams. We have to like some of them. And I'm sure that we hate some of them too. So, I want to ask, who is your favorite, and least favorite, non-Yankee around baseball?

For me, my favorite is Joe Mauer. For my least favorite, I'm torn between David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez (I'm sure you know why).

So, we need a Left Fielder.  So many choices, so little time, so much money (thanks popa George!).  Let's take a statistical and financial look at our choices.

1.  Put Gardner in center, and Melky in left.  I have a feeling Gardner is going to win the CF job anyway, so the debate is Melky in Left, or as our 4th OF if we sign someone else.

cost:  $1.4M (what we payed him last year.  This isn't extra salary, though, since he'll be on the team either way)

production:  4 year averages:  wOBA: .316,  UZR/150: -.9,  WAR: .975. 

This is obviously the cheap option.  We would only win 1 more game over a replacement-level player.  Pros:  Melky is young and durable, and could get better.  He also wouldn't cost us anything extra.  Cons:  This would make our outfield offense pretty weak.  We need more production from the corner outfielders.  Melky's 1 WAR is worth 2.2M, so we would actually be underpaying him by .8M.

2.  Resign Damon.

cost:  9-12M (based on rumors of what they will ask for)

production:   wOBA: .363,  UZR/150: -4.8,  WAR:  2.925

Option 2 is an offense upgrade over option 1, but a defensive downgrade.  Overall, Damon in left nets us 2 more wins on the season, which with the conversion of 1 WAR = 2.2M, puts his suggested salary at 4.4M above Melky.  Since Melky is still under team control, he doesn't make what he's worth, which means we would overpay for those 2 wins by 4-6M.

3.  Sign Jason Bay.

cost:  16-18M (also based on rumors)

production:  wOBA: .398,  UZR/150: -7.7,  WAR:  4.575

For Bay, I omitted his 2007 season because he was injured, which clearly effected his play that year.  His career suggests those numbers were a fluke.  So, Bay is an upgrade over Damon offensively, but a big downgrade defensively.  Overall, he is worth about 1.5 wins more than Damon, which is worth 3.3M in salary, putting his worth at 7.7M more than Melky.  His worth is about 10.5M, so we would overpay for his 3.5 wins over Melky by 5.5-7.5M.

4.  Sign Matt Holliday.

cost: 18-22M (based on the fact that he turned down 16M from the Cards, and would probably have a similar contract to Teixeira if we were to sign him)

production:  wOBA: .411,  UZR/150:  6.5,  WAR:  6.05.

Holliday is a good offensive upgrade over Bay, and a HUGE defensive upgrade.  While Bay has been one of the worst outfielders in the game the past 4 years, Holliday has been one of the better ones.  Holliday would cost 2-4M more than Bay, and his 1.5 more wins puts his value at 3.3M more, which is within that range.  Overall, Holliday's worth is about 14M, so we would overpay for his 6 wins by about 4-8M.

Economical values:

Melky: 1.4M / win

Damon: 3.07 - 4.1M / win

Bay:  3.5 - 3.9M / win

Holliday:  3 - 3.6M / win

Conclusions:

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Melky will not be the starting Left Fielder, the Yankees are going to get someone.  Of the top 3 candidates, Damon is the cheapest, but also the least effective.  Along with that, he's 37 years old, so he will most likely perform worse than his 4 year averages.  Holliday and Bay, on the other hand, are 29 and 31, respectively, so we could sign either to a longer deal without much fear of decline soon.  Holliday would be the most expensive, but would provide us 3 more wins for the season over Damon, which in the AL East can be the difference between winning the division and not making the playoffs.  I think it's pretty evident that Bay is not the best choice.  We would pay him almost as much as Holliday, but he's not as good of a player.  In terms of what we're getting for what we're paying for, Holliday is actually the best value.  So my suggestion, save the 18 - 24M it would cost to resign both Damon and Matsui, and use that money for Holliday.  That frees up the DH spot for Posada and the other starters when they need a little rest, and gives us Teixeira, A-Rod, and Holliday for our 3-4-5 spots.  That would be the most devastating 3-4-5 combo in baseball by far.

I know there are a lot of opinions going back and forth on this, but I want to specify some reasons why I think this would be a bad idea for the Yankees.

1.  We don't absolutely need him to win the World Series.  We proved that this year.  We can assume that Pettitte will be resigned, which I think is a good bet, and we'll get Wang back about halfway through the year.  If we assume that neither Hughes nor Joba have a breakout year this year, and that Wang never returns to his pre-foot injury form, we still know that we can win it all with our top 3 starters.

2.  He would cost a butt-load of prospects in a trade.  We would definitely lose either Hughes or Joba, maybe both, and we would most likely lose 2 out of AJAX, Montero, and Romine.  We're talking about one or two potential quality starting pitchers, our center fielder of the future, and two great catching prospects, one of whom is being compared at the plate to Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez when they came up in the minors (Montero).

3.  We would be paying for what Halladay was, and not necessarily what he will be.  This, of course, is always a concern when signing a free agent or making a trade.  Halladay has been great over his career, so as I specified in point #2, he will cost a lot.  The problem is that he will be 33 next year.  Halladay has been very consistent over his career, but the law of averages suggests he will begin to decline sometime soon.  This starts happening to pitchers, on average, at around 30-33 years of age.  Halladay is hitting the end of that average, which suggests there's a good chance he will begin to decline.  Sure, he might still be a very good pitcher until he's 40, but he's not going to maintain his dominance forever, he will slowly decline.  Thus, my point:  we will end up paying for how great he's been the past 6 or 7 years, but get someone less than that.  If you want to know exactly what I'm afraid of, see the Randy Johnson trade.

4.  We might have better options.  Next year, there will be a slew of good free agent pitchers.  First of all, Halladay himself will be a free agent, unless he gets traded and signed to an extension.  If we wait until next year, we might be able to get him without having to give up our prospects.  I personally feel more confident about going for younger pitchers of similar quality, like Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, or Brandon Webb.  I feel we would get more years out of one of those guys.