The Clueless Yankees, Media, and Fans
If Pettite decides to retires, the Yankees are left with a rotation of Wang (19-9,3.70), Chamberlain (2-0,0.38), Hughes(5-3,4.46), Kennedy (1-0,1.89), and Mussina(11-10,5.15). The Yankees have deluded themselves, the fans and media to believe a staff comprised of three rookie pitchers with a combined 107 innings of major league experience will be able to contend for a World Championship. There seems to be no concerns what a workload of 180-200 innings will have on the three when they've never pitched near those totals in their career. Never has a team won a World Series with three rookie pitchers, and let's not forget all 22 or younger, so why should anybody believe this historical trend will all of a sudden change this season. It's amazing to me how these three are believed to be some holy trinity considering some of the recent history alone in baseball. Anybody remember the names Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Francisco Liriano,Rich Harden, Kris Benson, Zach Greinke-all considered major prospects-and what happened to their careers. How about Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Wilson. Even the talented three of Hudson, Mulder and Zito couldn't get the A's out of the first round. Meanwhile, Zito, after his first two major seasons has slowly declined since and Mulder blew out his arm. Jeremy Bonderman, whose stuff was certainly as good as Hughes at a similar age had a horrible second half last season and had to be shut down. And where is the championship calibre bullpen to back up this rotation where the three young pitchers likely will be limited to pitch counts? If you think the Yankees can win a World Series with Mariano, backed up by Farnsworth, Vizcaino (I'm assuming he re-signs), Veras, and Oehlendorf, you have to have your brain examined. And let's not forget that at this point they don't even have a quality lefty coming out of the pen.
As far as the bullpen, I would give Kerry Wood an intense workout and if I liked what I saw I would give him a two year deal with a respectable base salary plus incentives and use him as the setup man to Mariano. I would sign Ron Mahay AND Jeremy Affeldt. I always thinks it's better to have two situational lefties and if one doesn't work out at least you have one competent one.
They wasted over $140M on the likes of Hitchcock, Karsay,Hammond, Wright, Pavano and Igawa and they won't take a chance on a player like Kerry Wood, who at least at one time in his career was a major talent.
And based on the many great prospects previously mentioned here that have failed in the past for one reason or another I would trade Chamberlain in a deal for Santana.
One more note on Cashman and the clueless Yankee organization. They didn't learn their lesson with Bernie Williams and negotiate a new deal prior to becoming a free agent and it cost them $40M. I guarantee you if they re-signed Rivera and Posada before the season they would've saved themselves at least 40-50 million dollars.
I've received a lot of criticism here but you'll all be eating your words when the championship drought lasts for years to come.
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49 comments
Comments
You're not man enough or smart enough
by andyroth on Nov 24, 2007 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
by docgonzo on Nov 25, 2007 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a pissing match
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're about as endearing...
by SenorSwanky on Nov 25, 2007 2:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So give me your
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you are a student of Yankee history
What the Yanks did have was depth in the rotation that no other team could match. That was the difference.
El Duque, Pettitte, Cone, Wells, and Clemens were all very good pitchers with the Yanks, but none of them were dominant shutdown aces.
Nonetheless, as a unit, they were nearly unbeatable because they had someone who would go out and pitch a good ballgame almost every time out and save the bullpen a ton of wear and tear over the course of a season.
Santana pitches just once every 5 days.
Building a stable of horses in the rotation is more important than going for broke and desperately overpaying for an "ace" with a lot of miles on his arm for his age.
Catching the biggest fish every offseason hasn't exactly worked out too well in recent years, so building a rotation of young arms is the smart thing to do right now.
by anaconda on Nov 25, 2007 4:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What an excellent post.
by bronxbound on Nov 25, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Devil's advocate
It's not about catching the biggest fish, it's about catching the right fish. Santana is the right fish, as were Duque, Cone, Wells and Clemens.
Pavano and Wright should have been thrown back.
by matthaggs on Nov 25, 2007 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Finally
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh good
That's just what I need.
by matthaggs on Nov 25, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You should be honored
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry
by pfistyunc on Nov 25, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously you are not a student of Yankee History
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's your problem
Be civil and respectful of others. It's really not that hard.
Secondly, I guess by your logic of record and wins in reference to Cone means that Chien-Ming Wang is the Yanks "ace".
Wang was 2nd in the Cy Young vote last season and has won more games than any pitcher in the league the last couple of years.
Once again, the Yankee rotation of old did not have shutdown aces like Beckett this season, Santana, Unit, or Pedro. To suggest as such is misguided.
You are elevating their individual status because of how great the team was back then with such stability and depth in the rotation - along with the best offense in baseball to boot.
Clemens never approached the same kind of dominance with the Yanks that he had in Boston or Toronto. Not even close.
by anaconda on Nov 25, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're putting Beckett
by andyroth on Nov 26, 2007 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It makes me sick to say it....
If records and win totals were the primary qualifications of being an "ace" then Wang is the Yanks' ace because he's won 38 games the past two years and a Cy Young candidate both years.
You can't have it both ways. You can't argue that Clemens and Cone were dominant aces because of their win totals but dismiss Wang's win totals at the same time.
Once again, Clemens established his Hall of Fame career by what he did with the Red Sox and Toronto. He never approached that kind of dominance with the Yanks. Not even close.
Check out the stats.
Clemens w/ BOS and TOR: 233-124, 2.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Clemens w/ NYY (not including 2007): 77-36, 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Wang ('06 and '07): 38-17, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
As you can see, Clemens' numbers with the Yanks were solid and very good at times, but he wasn't that same pitcher anymore. Just as the Randy Johnson the Yanks had wasn't the same pitcher who was lights out for Seattle, Astros, and D-Backs.
If you still consider Clemens to be an elite pitcher at that time - I guess Wang's numbers and accomplishments contradict your argument and would deserve to fall into that category too.
by anaconda on Nov 26, 2007 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don't get it
by andyroth on Nov 26, 2007 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're the same guy
You are contradicting your own argument.
Isn't Clemens' Cy Young in 2001 irrelevant in your eyes if the ultimate goal wasn't accomplished that season?
On the contrary, Clemens was terrible in 1999 when he won his first ring. He was better in 2000, but his beef with Piazza that season overshadowed everything else he did on the field.
Here's what you really don't understand. I don't care what a player's resume looked like before he put on the pinstripes. I care about what he did while he was wearing pinstripes.
Forget it. We can agree to disagree because I know you aren't going to change my mind on this topic and vise versa.
Let's leave it at that.
by anaconda on Nov 26, 2007 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll Take the Yanks
by marcbouch9 on Nov 25, 2007 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Feel free to contact me
by andyroth on Nov 26, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure?
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 8:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cashman has already said
That was not the case for Dusty Baker's Cubs or Joe Girardi's Marlins.
Cash has already shown that he is willing to give orders to Joe Torre- I have every faith that he'll tell Girardi when it's time to skip each pitcher for a turn in the rotation.
by jscape2000 on Nov 26, 2007 8:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are a little off...
"You mentioned the 2003 Marlins staff, here's what they had done entering 2003:
Pavano, 27, 514 IP
Penny, 25, 54 IP
Redman, 29, 425 IP
Willis, 21, 0 IP
Beckett, 23, 132 IP
They were all young, but 4 out of 5 had significant major league experience. Even then Willis and Beckett only respectively had 162 and 147 IP that year. Compare that with the "trinity". Entering 2008:
Hughes, 22, 73 IP
Joba, 22, 24 IP
IPK, 23, 19 IP
These guys are not ready for 180+ innings each. Your own example shows you that. My point is not to keep them from pitching, but just to get a reliable non Mussina veteran to stabilize the rotation, take off some of the pressure and log some decent inning so you don't burn them out."
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I had meant to respond
I wasn't bringing up the '03 Marlins this time, but for the sake of argument let's use them as a model.
I have said over and over that Joba can only pitch about 140 innings (112IP in '07), IPK about 180 (149 in '07), and Hughes about 180 (146 in '06).
The andyroth-style not listening that is happening here is really grating on me.
The 2003 Marlins:
Pavano 201 IP, 32 starts, 1.26 WHIP
Penny 196.1 IP, 32 starts, 1.28 WHIP
Redman 190.2 IP, 29 starts, 1.22 WHIP
Willis 160.2 IP, 27 starts, 1.28 WHIP
Beckett 142 IP, 24 starts, 1.32 WHIP
Looper 80.2 IP, 74 games, 1.38 WHIP
Almanza 50.1 IP, 51 games, 1.67 WHIP
Tejera 81 IP, 50 games (including 7 starts), 1.46 WHIP
Spponeybarger 42 IP, 33 games, 0.90 WHIP
Phelps 63 IP, 27 games (including 6 starts), 1.48 WHIP
Urbina 38.1 IP, 33 games, 0.94 WHIP
Those IP totals don't seem out of reach.
Wang needs to give us around 200 innings. Hughes/IPK come up about 30 innings short on Penny/Redman. Mussina will match Willis' innings if not his performance. And Joba can match Beckett.
I'll take Mo over Looper and Farnsworth over Almanza.
I think Ohlendorf and Britton can equal the performance of Tejera and Urbina.
The challenge then is matching up Urbina and Spooneybarger's lights out performances and the 30 extra innings from the starters. That's 100 innings total. And I think some combination of Sanchez, Edwar, Melancon, and Horne will come up from the minors to help deal with that.
Also the fact that the 2003 Marlins scored 751 runs (allowed 692) plays to the Yankees' advantage. The Yankees scored 968 runs last year. Let's scale that back to an even 900 (even though improvements from Damon and Abreu could offset Posada and Arod's regressions). That's 5.56 runs per game.
As bad as the Yankee staff was last year they allowed 777 runs. I don't think there is anyone who thinks that this year's staff won't improve on that. If the Yankees shave 50 runs off their total (a little less than a third of a run per game), then with this offense they're in a great position to support these young pitchers.
Are 10 extra innings from a 29 year old Mark Redman really worth that much more than a 22 year old Phil Hughes?
Will IPK's ERA be that much worse than Brad Penny (4.13 in the NL) that it costs the Yankees a playoff spot?
I don't think so. If you do, that's fine. But please stop pretending that having 3 rookies in the rotation (compared to the Marlins' 2) eliminates our playoff chances.
by jscape2000 on Nov 26, 2007 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Another level deeper...
I agree about the high importance of resigning Andy Petite. To me, that makes all the difference with this pitching staff. I'll show you why below.
It is not just a matter of IP. Lets translate the IP you expect for the staff in to Games Started (GS):
Wang, 200 IP, 32 GS
Hughes, 180 IP, 29 GS
IPK, 180 IP, 29 GS
Mussina, 160 IP, 27 GS
Joba, 140 IP, 24 GS
Thats a total of 141 GS. I think even that is a bit on the rosey side of the expectations. But if you are right, thats 21 starts unaccounted for. That does not even factor in any potential injuries or poor rookie performance.
Any way you slice it you need another starter. The Marlins got 19 starts out of A.J. Burnett (4), Tommy Phelps (7), Michael Tejera (6) and Justin Wayne (2). Do you really want to do something like that?
If you add Petite to the 2008 NYY rotation, you would have no problem filling out 2 rotation slots with the "trinity". You would even have enough left over to allow you to use Joba in the bullpen a great deal in addition to getting a good number of starts out of him.
I am not even trying to make a judgement call on how well the young guys will perform, that to me is a crap shoot. I am just saying from a IP, GS, and depth perspective, you should not rely on the "trinity" alone to get the NYY to the playoffs in 2008.
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your point
Those 4 are still on the roster, and if none of the minor leaguers have breakout years, I'll be content picking and choosing when to give them their shots.
The 2007 Red Sox had 15 starts outside their main 5.
The 2006 Cards had 43!
The 2005 White Sox had 10.
The 2004 Red Sox had only 5.
The 2003 Marlins had 19.
The 2002 Angels had 22.
The 2001 Diamondbacks had 35.
That's an average of 21 spot starts. Obviously, few spot starts is better, but what I'm proposing (without Pettitte) is doable.
by jscape2000 on Nov 26, 2007 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depth
- 14 of those 15 GS were by Lester or Buchholz. I don't think Igawa and Co. line up well against those 2.
- Injuries racked this veteran staff. As any team can get racked.
- Brandon McCarthy had all 10 of those GS, replacing Orlando Hernandez.
- Insignificant #
- Aleady discussed above.
- John Lackey was the only rookie SP.
- Disaster of a staff except for their 2 aces, Schilling and Johnson. Not a young staff, just a very bad staff.
I think going in to the season relying on Igawa and Co. for a minimum of 21 starts is a bad idea. That's almost as much as you want Joba to contribute.
Do you think it is really advisable to start the year with only one good veteran starting pitcher (Wang, obviously)? Because that is what you have. You are expecting 94+ wins out of a team that starts a pitcher with 1 or less years of experience in 64% (103 of 162) games.
What I was originally advocating with that post was the signing of a veteran #3-4 type starter if Petite can not be retained. If you do this you get more depth, stability and predictability.
If you lose Petite and dont bring in another starter, what do you do when one of your pitchers get hurt as some one inevitably will? You have to start Igawa or Clippard. Do you really want to go back to that? It didn't work out too well last year when it was tried.
I am not trying to be arguementative, I am just trying to make that point that going in to the season knowing that at least 21 starts will come from Igawa and Co. is a bad idea.
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You left out
by andyroth on Nov 29, 2007 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry
He was a reason why the Marlins were successful in the postseason, but that's not the discussion that Kevin and I were having.
If you're going to write here try to get your bloody facts straight. Try Baseball Reference.com as a starting point. The Village Voice doesn't run detailed enough box scores.
by jscape2000 on Nov 29, 2007 2:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kevin
by andyroth on Nov 26, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very True
Pavano (pre meltdown)
Penny
Redman
Willis (pre meltdown)
Beckett
Josh f'ing Beckett as your #5? That is just a sick rotation. I think it is amazingly optimistic to expect the NYY rookies to be that good. Also, I don't see a Mike Mussina in that 2003 Marlins rotation either... that alone is a pretty big difference.
I don't mean to say there is no hope for the 2008 NYY, but everyone needs to be realistic. Being unrealistic is not being negative.
by KevinV on Nov 26, 2007 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take you on ...
What I don't think you get is that it's not about the money with the Yankees, so contract negotiations and having to pay a few billion extra doesn't bother them. Therefore, it shouldn't bother you.
Commenting on the Trinity, I believe we'll be just fine.... And if we aren't, Cashman will break out the checkbook. Again, it's never about the money. You need to understand that.
Andy, you talk big, but seriously, dude, it's November 26, 2007 and you've already played the entire 2008 season and annointed the Sox the winner? Come on, man. I'd like to think you are smarter than a fifth grader, but I'm not so sure.
Come back with your flawed analysis sometime in April. Until then, put on your Sox jersey and peddle your bs to your senior class.
by Ronster22 on Nov 26, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not even worth it
by pfistyunc on Nov 25, 2007 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you
by andyroth on Nov 25, 2007 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
by pfistyunc on Nov 25, 2007 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but
by stillmonster on Nov 25, 2007 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am a diehard lifelong Yankee fan....
Heaven forbid I speak my honest opinion about the subject - I get jumped on my Yankee fans....sometimes with rude comments of a personal nature. Its a shame when Yankee fans can't share an opinion on a Yankee Blog site without some jerks making personal rude comments in reply. Don't agree? Disagree. Fine. But keep the personal attacks out of it.
by cinco64 on Nov 26, 2007 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, one more time
You list about a dozen big prospects who didn't live up to the hype. That's easy to do, and hardly proves anything about these prospects.
I can understand feeling nervous about trusting our season to these rookies, but that's no reason to predict years of failure. That just doesn't make sense.
by jscape2000 on Nov 24, 2007 11:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
but IF Pettitte comes back
Clearly, the serious issue was not pitching throughout the season (which was not good, but still got us into the playoffs), but instead pitching IN the playoffs. So, this past year, we had Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, and Wang in the playoffs. If Hughes, Joba, or IPK has a good season, and shows flashes of being a big game pitcher, I think we will be better off going into the postseason. One of the Trinity will probably replace Clemens' spot, and another will take Wang's second start. Tell me, does that sound better to you than this year?
I am not expecting Cy Young seasons from all of these 3, but I am expecting them to make the pitching staff much better than last year (assuming Pettitte returns.) I am also hoping that atleast one of them can deliver a big game in the playoffs (and expect them to offer improvements from Clemens' game and Wang's second start.)
So, while you are right that this team will be in a much worse state without Pettitte, I don't think anyone here disagrees with you. So before you start getting so fiesty, atleast wait until Pettitte resigns. Don't start gloating about how correct you are if the Yankees underperform. Everyone here knows how important Andy is to the Yankees. The number 2 starter and best playoffs pitcher. So, I like your points, but lose the attitude. Everyone knows how vital Andy is.
by stillmonster on Nov 24, 2007 11:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mahay AND Affeldt?
And you'd trade Joba for Santana? Why? So we can watch him excel for another team?
by SenorSwanky on Nov 24, 2007 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The goal is not just about winning
If Pettitte returns, the rotation will be better than last year.
This is basically the same diary you wrote a week ago so I'm guessing you're going to get about the same feedback once again.
by anaconda on Nov 25, 2007 2:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by SenorSwanky on Nov 25, 2007 2:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey guys
by imastoopidbtch on Nov 25, 2007 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the division?
by tombradylikesdudes on Nov 25, 2007 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brady Anderson is back
by Ronster22 on Nov 26, 2007 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is this fella somebody's alter ego?
You guarantee it? Okay. Put your money where your mouth is. I will bet you $100 that if they had re-signed Rivera and Posada before the season, they would have each gotten an extra year.
Put your money down, bub.
by LateInningRelief on Nov 26, 2007 5:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The best part
by pfistyunc on Nov 26, 2007 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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