Because I Know I Shall Not Know

by jscape2000 on Nov 21, 2007 2:52 AM EST in New York Yankees News

Let's try this "thinking" thing one more time.

Jesse, our blogging brother over at Twinkie Town, proposes an interesting package of Dodgers for Johann Santana.

Pick Two AND Pick One -OR- Pick Two
Young--------Ethier--------Paul
Kemp--------Billingsley-----DeJesus
Kershaw--------Loney------Elbert
LaRoche

From the buffet line I'll have Young, LaRoche and Ethier, please...

That pretty clearly trumps anything the Yankees should be willing to throw out there.
While I'd take Kershaw, Kemp, Billingsley in that package, Jesse knows what his team needs.

But it looks like the Dodgers have their eyes on a certain Floridian third baseman.

The Marlins want both outfielder Matt Kemp and Class AA left-hander Clayton Kershaw included in a four-player package from the Dodgers.

The Dodgers clearly want to make a big splash to correspond with the Torre signing. The NL West figures to be as up for grabs as any division in baseball. Adding only a couple wins at the expense of their division rivals could bring a division title to LA.

The Dodgers not only have the prospects to make both deals happen, and they also have the revenue to move Juan Pierre into left field and sign one of the free agent center fielders. Then they only have to fill right field, either by moving Garciaparra or Loney or by signing a Bobby Kielty type player.

For the Yanks to get a crack at Santana we have to hope that the Dodgers pull of the Cabrera trade (this also keeps him away from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Southern California of the United States in the Northern Hemisphere of Planet Earth). Then the Dodgers need to decide that they'd rather hold onto what's left of their farm system.

This would give the Yankees an outside shot at Santana, though I still expect some other team to swoop in and pay the king's ransom the Yankees must not be willing to pay.

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Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 21, 2007 8:20 AM EST reply actions

Prospects

The NYY have little to offer in terms of near MLB ready talent besides the "trinity" whom you have said must not be traded. Especially Hughes/Joba. There are a few prospects like Miranda, Tabata or Jackson, but you guys seem unwilling to part with Tabata either.

The Twins will get at least 3 good young MLB ready players in return. One of those would probably have to be a starter. If you say Hughes and Joba are untouchable I don't know if you have enough young talent to get it done. Someone will offer a lot more than the best offer anyone here would offer. Probably some thing like:

IPK, Jackson, Melky (who no one wants) + Junk prospects.

That will not get it done. The NYY will have to touch their untouchables for Santana. Otherwise don't be surprised to see him in Boston, Anaheim or Queens in 2008.

by KevinV on Nov 21, 2007 8:23 AM EST reply actions

Skeptical on Boston

The Sox have a ton of great prospects that Theo covets and they are already a lot better than the Yanks. They really don't have a need to make that trade, so I think they would just stay in it to drive up the price for the Yankees. Anaheim already has a ton of great starting pitching and desperately needs a bat. I would expect a trade for Miggy before Johan.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 21, 2007 8:30 AM EST up reply actions

Reply

I think you're right, Anaheim is much more likely to get Miggy than Santana. But if they can't get that done, they have more pieces to trade than NYY.

I think the prospecst of a rotation of:

Beckett/Santana/Matsuzaka/Schilling/Bucholz

is a pretty damned tempting proposition. That would lock up the division for the next 3 years, period. Boston is super power, of course they are interested in the best pitcher on the planet. They are loaded with prospects and cash too so they could get it done.

by KevinV on Nov 21, 2007 8:57 AM EST up reply actions

Impossible rotation

Your proposed rotation is going to be real tough for Boston to assemble because Buccholz won't be able to pitch for Minnesota and Boston.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 21, 2007 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

For real

You'd have to figure the Twins get Pedroia, Bucholz and something else for Santana. I don't see Theo doing it because he would need to lock up Santana and the Red Sox don't just hand out 5+ year deals...even Beckett only got 3 years with a club option.

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 21, 2007 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Not so

Boston has lots of things to build a trade around. Pedroia, Lester, Masterson and Elsbury are a few non Santana options that come to mind. Before you say that Boston wouldn't trade Elsbury or Pedroia, look what they did with Hanley Ramirez.

Dominant starting pitching is the hardest thing to find in MLB. Epstein understands that.

by KevinV on Nov 21, 2007 9:18 AM EST reply actions

I think the Yanks best offer

would be two for 'now' and two for 'later'.

IPK, Melky, Betances, and Tabata.
That price feels steep to me, so that probably makes it reasonable.

But only Chicago and KC had worse offenses than the Twins in '07. I think they'll take Kemp, LaRoche, and others over the Yankee package.

I don't see Boston really being a part of this. I think the package would need to start at Pedroia and Bucholtz, with guys like Elsbury and Lester as throw ins.

Then again, the Twins real black hole is at third. If they could sign Youkilis to a reasonable deal he could be the center of a package.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 21, 2007 4:09 PM EST reply actions

I'd offer that

I'd even upgrade to Hughes, et al, if necessary.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 21, 2007 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Talk about overrating your prospects

IPK, Melky, Betances, and Tabata.
That price feels steep to me, so that probably makes it reasonable.

Steep? Really? IPK is a #3 or #4 starter at best. Melky is a borderline starter, especially on a team that doesn't have the offense to protect him. Betances had a 1.64 WHIP in low A. Tabata is only 18, and has 730 ABs in 2 Single-A seasons. Minnesota would laugh at that package.

I don't see Boston really being a part of this. I think the package would need to start at Pedroia and Bucholtz, with guys like Elsbury and Lester as throw ins.

Then again, the Twins real black hole is at third. If they could sign Youkilis to a reasonable deal he could be the center of a package.

Buchholz has a ceiling as high as Hughes or Joba, a legit front of the rotation prospect. Pedroia was the ROY and hit .317/.380/.442, while flashing a very good glove at second. An equivilent package with the Yanks would have to start with Joba/Hughes and Cano. Get the picture? Ellsbury and Lester as throw ins? The Sox wouldn't even trade those two straight up for IPK, Melky, Betances, and Tabata.

Intangibles - a blend of chilled grapefruit, clean oak moss and spice

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 22, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

Reply

Betances has ace potential according to everyone who has seen him.

Everyone keeps saying IPK is a 3 or 4. My reply to that remains, he's a 4 right now. And he's a rookie.

Melky is an average starter or a fabulous reserve. The Twins need a starting centerfielder; here's one who is inexpensive.

Tabata is 18 and is going to start next season in AA.

I didn't say that the Twins would take that package. I didn't say that would be the best package out there. I expect someone to overpay for a single year of Santana.

Reasonable means reasonable for both sides; the Twins are a couple years away from contention and a package of high ceiling prospects would put them back on track.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 22, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Rejoinder

Dellin Betances may have ace potential. But top prospects don't usually start out in the NYPL. They start in higher single-A. Even in low A, his stats weren't overwhelming.

Tabata is interesting, but he is likely three years or more away from the majors.

Melky is Coco Crisp with less range and a better arm. He has little value. You might get a middle relieve, or package him with something better in the hope of getting a star player.

That leaves the center piece of your deal: Ian Kennedy. Because what you're essentially proposing is a IPK for Santana deal. You see him as a #4 starter right now. I see a kid who ade three major league starts. It's way too soon to say he's even a legit #4 already, and most projections had him topping out at a #3 or #4.

I agree that for any trade to be made, both sides need to be reasonable. I just don't think the four players you've proposed are reasonable value for one of the best players in baseball. The Twins would be better off letting Santana walk and take the draft picks.

I think Minnesota will take 70 cents on the dollar for Santana. With all due respect, your offer is less than that.

Intangibles - a blend of chilled grapefruit, clean oak moss and spice

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 22, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

They do

WHEN THEY ARE 17!!!!!!

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 23, 2007 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

OK

... but Betances was 19 last season.

Intangibles - a blend of chilled grapefruit, clean oak moss and spice

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 23, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

I am from auburn, ny

one of the cities in the NY-P league. Now although I agree with you that most top prospects don't start in that league, I would have to say that analyzing anyone based on what single A league they were assigned to is a rather weak method. Especially when there are three leagues a lot of who goes where is determined by the team's minor league philosophy.

Alot of the Blue Jays starting lineup right now went through Auburn. Robbie Cano and Wang both spent two years with the Staten Island Yankees...

Other than that I agree with a lot of what you are saying. Part of what alot of us are saying on this blog is that we wouldn't be willing to give up more than these packages we are laying out. I don't think there really is a "reasonable" package for only one year of Santana. (Esp because the Twins don't really want top prospects for Santana, what they would really love to have is hte premium young talent of the game... I don't think we are goign to trade Cano any more than you can envision moving the ROY.)

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Nov 23, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

Fair Enough

Your points are well taken.

However, any team that trades for 1-year of Santana would be stupid (that doesn't mean it won't happen). The most likely kind of deal would be a sign-and-trade. In that case, the Twins will want a lot. I agree about Minnesota wanting premium young talent. I also think they'll want top of the rotation potential pitching, meaning young pitchers who are close(Hughes, Joba, Buchholz, Lester, etc.).

It also may be possible to wait the Twins out, at least until the ASB. Still, any package offered would have to be better than the picks the Twins would get for losing Santana. I don't see Minnesota just giving him away.

Intangibles - a blend of chilled grapefruit, clean oak moss and spice

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 23, 2007 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

what?

last i checked minnesota needs a center fielder, Also last i checked ellsbury was one of the best centerfield prospects around. i dont think ellsbury would be a "throw in".

by nilvaz on Nov 22, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Wait what?

The Twins guy took Young, LaRoche and Ethier out of those?

If that was the offer by the Dodgers...

Why wouldn't you take Kemp (immediate cleanup hitter to protect Mauer), Kershaw (the best pitching prospect in the league), and Billingsley (the ace).

That's a ridiculous offer (too much) IMO, but whatever.

The Yankees will have the weakest offer, but it'll have to be at least: Cano, Tabata, Kennedy and Horne.

by randomize on Nov 22, 2007 12:59 PM EST reply actions

Why don't we just all agree

that the trade won't happen unless either Joba or Hughes is a part of it. Honestly, if you were the Twins, would you even consider the Kennedy packages? Unless we throw one of those two at them, we aren't coming close to what the Dodgers have to offer.

by Leviticus on Nov 23, 2007 12:33 AM EST reply actions

I think most of us have accepted that

The real question is: is Cano required? If so, I think any sane person would say "f*** it."

by SenorSwanky on Nov 23, 2007 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

Dan Graziano

of the Newark Star Ledger had this to say about the Yanks potential acquisition of Johan Santana:

The Twins will need at least one good, proven, major-league player and a couple of prospects in exchange if they decide to deal Santana. Many people have suggested that the Yankees would need to include Robinson Cano in a deal, and that's certainly possible. But the Twins have a
young player (Alexi Casilla) they believe can play second base, and their greater need may be in the outfield, especially with Torii Hunter now gone off to Anaheim.

To that end, Melky Cabrera might be more appealing to the Twins than Cano. Let's assume the Yankees don't want to include Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in the deal (though Santana might be the only player for whom they'd consider dealing one of those guys), and that Brian Cashman also wants to hold onto Ian Kennedy. The next best pitcher in the Yankees' system is probably Alan Horne. I'm thinking the Yankees could offer a package of Cabrera, Horne and outfield prospect Jose Tabata for Santana. That could be appealing to the Twins, though they might ask for a better pitcher than Horne (or another, such as Marquez, in addition to him), though it would depend on the packages being offered by other interested teams such as the Mets and Red Sox.

The thing to remember in dealing with the Twins, however, is that they might not always be after the prospects everybody knows about. The Twins pride themselves on being able to identify and acquire big-time prospects at the Class A level. Players who have come to the Twins' system at the A-ball level over the years include Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford and Joe Mays, as well as Johan Santana himself and a skinny little hitter whose name at the time was David Arias but later changed his last name to Ortiz and went on to achieve some measure of fame with the Boston Red Sox.

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 24, 2007 11:27 AM EST reply actions

Hell

I'd trade Melky, Horne, Tabata, and another minor-league player in a heartbeat. They just can't touch Cano or Joba and preferably not Hughes, in my book.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 24, 2007 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

The Other Part of It

Is Santana's no-trade clause. To waive it, he would need a HUGE offer. I am confident that we have the advantage in that department.

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 24, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

But the question is...

...as Graziano alluded, it's all about what the other teams offer. So will the competition drive up the price past Melky, et al? Will our stock of talent and what we're willing to give up be less than other teams? Probably.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 24, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

All eyes on Omar

Minaya has just the right combination of pressure and retardation to throw a boatload of prospects at Minny. After last year's epic collapse, he has to do something even if it means gutting their farm for Johan. To me, the two most likely scenarios are: 1) trade to the Mets or 2) Johan stays in Minny for 2008, in that order.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 24, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I think

the Dodgers have gone 'all in' with the Torre hiring.
I'd say it's 1) Dodgers 2) Mets 3) Stay until the deadline.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 24, 2007 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

Very possible

I forgot about them since they seemed so intent on Miggy, but that scenario is just as likely as Omar overpaying, especially in AAAA, err..the National League where a team doesn't have to improve very much to rise about its shitty peers.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 24, 2007 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

Santana

Has anyone asked Santana what he wants? Certainly, he can veto any attempt to sign him and see what the market will dictate in 2008. If he wants to win a championship, and be on a winner, I feel the Yankees have the best chance to land him.

Forget about trying to trade for him next year. I feel, Cano will be the player in that trade. Would I do it? Certainly. Do I think the Yankees have a shot at him in 2008 if they sit iddle? Yes.

Trade no pitchers. Santana in '08.

by 76 yanks on Nov 26, 2007 1:46 PM EST reply actions