FanPost

It's Still Time to Trade Ellsbury

The Boston media labeled Jacoby Ellsbury soft and fragile early on. His best season coincided with the painful (in those parts) 2011 collapse and following frenzy over chicken, beer and pain pills. Almost no one noticed that he hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 119 runs and 39 stolen bases. During the September collapse Ellsbury's RC+ was 186! (How do you lose 20 games in a month when your leadoff hitter is on fire? Good times. Boston, good times.) To put that 2011 campaign in context, only 3 Trout seasons and 1 Harper season have matched or exceed it's fWAR since. So Ellsbury was under appreciated in Boston. Then he signed an overpriced contract in New York when the fans just wanted to resign Robinson Cano. Worse Ellsbury disappointed. He hasn't been close to his career batting average and he is no longer a premier base stealer. 2015 was particularly awful. Yet in 2014, he was still very good, and he was about average last season, and now New York fans under appreciate him as well.

For example, can you distinguish Ellsbury's 2016 line from those of two other Yankees who receive much more credit ?

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

BB%

K%

Hard%

LD%

Player A

0.263

0.330

0.374

0.308

8.6

13.4

26.6

22.8

Player B

0.276

0.304

0.447

0.319

3.2

13.7

24.5

19.6

Player C

0.270

0.300

0.433

0.313

3.9

19.3

31.2

20.7

Like these other two, Ellsbury plays an important position defensively, and despite his pathetic arm, he still plays it well. Depending on the metric he's either still average among center fielders or good. It's not time to move him into left yet. Ellsbury also has some value as a base runner. His steal of home was one of the few highlights in the early going last spring. In the short-term he helps with the glove and on the bases.

Players A, B and C are Ellsbury, Didi Gregorius, and Starlin Castro. Obviously, Ellsbury doesn't have their power. But walks more than twice as much and hits just as many line drives. He also strikes out much less than Castro. Given that he's better on the bases, Fangraphs rated his 2016 offense better than Castro's.

Now, better than Castro is a low bar to clear. Castro be traded too. And really, no one is going to be excited about Ellsbury as their center fielder either. Yet, he's not incompetent yet. I read lots of comments discounting the possibility of trading Ellsbury because no contender would want him. Yet the Cubs just paid Jon Jay $8M, after Jay road a .371 BABIP and platoon advantage to a league average offensive season. He's got lots of red flags, yet the Cubs thought he was worthwhile as their nominal starting center fielder. Teams will pay to avoid having a complete hole. Looking around the league there are still some contenders who could use Ellsbury to improve their outfield.

The best match may be the Astros. Last year the Astros had one very good outfielder, George Springer and a number of crummy ones. They've since signed Reddick and Aoki, but Aoki probably isn't someone you want to run out every day. Since they can move Springer to center, they may sign Bautista or trade for a corner outfielder as well (right now the Fangraphs depth pages assume the Springer will play the bulk of the time in center). But acquiring Ellsbury would be the simplest way to improve their outfield.

The other contender that could use Ellsbury is our crosstown friends. The Mets punted outfield defense last season, but didn't really like the results. It may have cost Syndergaard the Cy Young. They could play Granderson or Cespedes out of position. But why not acquire Ellsbury instead. Then Granderson and Cespedes would be assets in the corners. For the Mets, acquiring Ellsbury might come with the added incentive that they and the Yankees probably want to save the money in opposite places. The Mets are probably most concerned about the short-term costs and the Yankees probably want to most rid themselves of the 2020 and 2021 salary commitments when they hope to be paying some superstars.

A third, although distant possibility is the Indians. The Indians relied on Rajaj Davis a lot last season, but he hit worse than Ellsbury. If they knew that Brantley would be back for sure, they wouldn't need another outfielder. It wouldn't be surprising if closer to spring the Indians are looking to acquire some insurance against Brantley struggling to return or Tyler Naquin regressing. Like the Mets, the Indians might want to push off salary commitments so that they can sign Encarnacion and go all in over the next couple of seasons.

At this point, the free agent market doesn't provide any answers at center. Other trade targets like Blackmon or McCutchen will be much more costly in prospects. I'm not suggesting that teams are lining up for Ellsbury. But he makes sense for some teams, enough sense that Cashman should be able to find a win-win deal. The broader concerns are whether Ellsbury would waive his no-trade clause, and the Steinbrenners can stomach eating money while risking making the 2017 team worse.

I have no special insight into whether Ellsbury would be willing to move. He doesn't have kids though so maybe he'd be willing to accept a trade to a team with a better chance to win in 2017.

As for the Steinbrenners' concern, now is the time to deal Ellsbury. If Ellsbury were a free agent, I don't think people would blink if he signed a 2 year $26M or even a 3 year $30M contract. That's in the ballpark no? The Indians and Mets are more frugal teams, they might be willing to deliver some non-elite, but legitimate prospects for Ellsbury if the Yankees ate $65-70M of Ellsbury's remaining contract. Especially if the Yankees ate the 2017-2019 seasons in entirety. The Astros probably would want to do the deal as a straight salary dump. Regardless, there is some financial value to trading Ellsbury now.

Most of his production is likely to come in 2017 or 2018. This production will most likely be wasted. Sure Ellsbury might find the fountain of youth in the bowels of the new stadium and this resurgence may coincide with Aaron Judge and Greg Bird hitting like 2015 Rodriguez and Teixeira, but the odds of just making the Wild Card are small. The odds that the difference between Ellsbury's production and Aaron Hicks's production being the difference between the Wild Card and missing the playoffs seem too minuscule to worry over. And we now the Cashman holds Hicks in high regard anyway.

Moreover trading Ellsbury now frees up space to experiment with younger players including Hicks. I don't have any expectation that any one of Hicks, Williams or Dexter Fowler (not to mention Jake Cave) manages to match Ellsbury's 2016 production. If not, maybe Frazier tears up AAA in the first half and you want to bring him up. But with 4 shots (5 if you count Cave), the Yankees might find that one of these players is capable of being an average everyday center fielder by the end of 2017. Because of the Yankees' outfield depth in the upper minors and 40-man roster, it's not hard to imagine several scenarios in which trading Ellsbury doesn't hurt the 2017 at all. (Evidence that our depth is real is that Seattle traded prospects to give Gamel an opportunity we weren't willing to give him). In contrast, if you don't trade an outfielder you force Williams into AAA and create a logjam down there, hurting someone's development.

Of course, trading Gardner is an easier way to create space. Only a $1M trade kicker and only $26M total on his contract. He's also been better than Ellsbury the last two seasons. If Cashman accepts an amazing offer for Gardner, than I would be disappointed, but understand why. But absent another team valuing Gardner much more highly than Ellsbury, Cashan should deal Ellsbury instead.

1) Gardner is the better offensive player and the team needs offense more than defense. Our replacement outfielder candidates are defensive players first. We also have a defense first third baseman and are starting to unknowns at first, right and a bounce-back candidate at DH. We need to squeeze offense from everywhere and Gardner is the most predictable candidate for outfield offense right now.

2) Gardner works the count, while being difficult to strike out. He led the team in BB%, lowest O-swing percentage, lowest swinging strike percentage, and highest contact percentage. He doesn't walk a lot because teams are worried about him. He walks because he fouls off pitches in the zone and avoids pitches outside the zone. As a transitioning team with lots of new young players, Gardner's example will be invaluable.

3) Gardner is the only remaining position player link to the 2009 championship and a homegrown player. We've played four seasons with a single playoff game. Many of the young guys were in rookie ball, college or high school when we last won. Keeping Garder allows the Yankees to keep some continuity, and anchors the team in the Yankee tradition.

4) Yankee fans are more connected to Gardner. Not only has he been here the longest, but he always plays hard and always seems to defy expectations. He's regular person height, instead of being an obvious uber-athlete. His arm is accurate rather than strong. He altered his approach well into his major league career to make himself a power threat. Recognition of his accomplishments took a little while. First All-Star team at 31, first Gold Glove at 33. I'll tune into the team to see Sanchez, but it will be nice to root for an old favorite as well.

5) Gardner is only signed for two more seasons, meaning that his contract naturally fits into the transition. In 2019, the ideal Yankee outfield is Frazier, Harper and Judge with a fast defense/running fourth outfielder like Fowler or Williams. Mateo might be another possibility. So might Rutherford. Ellsbury doesn't have a long-term place on the team. But it might be hard to waive Ellsbury then and just eat the contract, especially if he's tolerable in 2018. The Yankees don't usually waive older players until they've been horrific. So trading Ellsbury now makes 2019 and 2020 much easier.

Since fake trades are fun, here's my favorite (and yes, it probably sucks). Offer Ellsbury and $68.4M (complete 2017-2019 salary plus $5M in 2020) to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (MLB.com Mets org #15), Patrick Mazeika (MLB.com Mets org #28), and 2 of their 2016 HS draftees or international signings. Gimenez is 18 and still in the Domincan Republic, but he hit well there. Mazeika just turned 23 and finished a low-A season in which he walked as much as he struck out. Both are 2015 signees so we would have a few years to make something of them or the 2016 lottery tickets. This return and expense is so far away that I can't imagine the Mets refusing the offer.

The particulars aren't that important. If anything, Cashman can probably extract more financial relief or better prospects, maybe even both. Regardless, let's deal Ellsbury now. It creates flexibility now and helps in the future. It also lets Ellsbury start fresh with a new fan base. It's help another team closer to the WS improve their 2017 situation. Everyone wins! Well everyone wins unless Aaron Hicks hits as poorly as spring 2016. Then we lose, at least for a little while.

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