FanPost

The Yankees and the 2015 Draft: Potential Picks for the First Round


I recently posted a fanpost which took an in-depth look at the Yankees draft tendencies over the past five years in the first four rounds. You can find that here.

Using this information, let's take a look at potential targets for the Yankees in the first round.

The Yankees have two first rounders this year, thanks to the White Sox signing David Robertson and the Yankees refusal to sign anyone with draft pick compensation attached. The first pick is at #16. The second is at #30. Let's look at prep arms and bats, and college bats that are ranked near those two picks, as those are the three types of players they are most likely to grab in the first round:

Pick 16:

Name POS LVL HS State College/Commitment
Kyle Tucker LF HS Plant FL Florida
Kolby Allard LHP HS San Clemente CA UCLA
Daz Cameron CF HS Eagle’s Landing Christian GA Florida State
Trenton Clark OF HS Richland TX Texas Tech
Kevin Newman SS COL
AR Arizona
Nick Plummer OF HS Brother Rice MI Kentucky
Garrett Whitley OF HS Niskayuna NY Wake Forest
Ashe Russell RHP HS Cathedral IN Texas A&M
Brady Aiken LHP HS IMG Academy FL UCLA
Chris Betts C HS Wilson CA Tennessee
Cornelius Randolph 2B HS Griffin GA Clemson
Justin Hooper
LHP HS De La Salle
CA UCLA

As of right now, it is likely that Tucker, Cameron, Allard, Whitley, and Clark will be gone by pick 16, given current rumors. But with the fluidity of this draft class, that could change fairly quickly.

Outside of those five, Brady Aiken is the big name. Last year's #1 draft pick didn't sign due to the Astros being scared enough with his MRI that they cut the bonus they offered to the minimum needed to keep the draft pick this year. He couldn't make it out of his first start this spring before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. This would be a great high-risk, high-reward pick by the Yankees. However, recent rumors about the long-term health of Aiken's arm are not comforting. From Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs:

There is persistent, consistent and detailed buzz coming from many sources that there is more to Aiken’s injury than just a clean surgery...I won’t repeat the specific rumors, but the worst versions of it say there are career-threatening issues at play, while others say it’s merely an increased risk of further injury going forward

The risk just got greater, and the reward stayed the same. It's possible enough teams pass on him until the Yankees second pick in the first round. At that point, the risk/reward balance may be a bit closer to what's needed to justify the pick. His is a prep arm, and a lefty, and the Yankees love those characteristics, especially in the first round.

However, given I am scared to death with that report, let's look at the other prep lefty on this list, Justin Hooper. Hooper is one of the few prep lefties who can match Aiken's potential, but he is a bit rough around the edges. The 6'7" lefty from De La Salle HS in California is known for his big fastball coming from a low 3/4 arm slot. He's been up to 97, although with a lot of work to do commanding it. In the past month of high school ball, reports are the command is better. His curveball is a potential plus out pitch, while his changeup needs work - as it does for most prep pitchers.

He just out-dueled another top draft prospect, Joe DeMers. He sat 91-95, striking out 10 without giving up a walk - it's possible he's given up a bit of velocity to gain some control (although he still has plenty of velocity). You can watch the entire game here. The Yankees love prep pitchers and they love lefties, especially tall and/or Californian lefties. So far, it's worked with Ian Clarkin. This could be a real good fit at pick 16.

A second potential target is Kevin Newman, the college SS from Arizona. He's the best of a deep second tier of college middle infielders, and his glove is good enough to stick at SS. He's athletic and fast, with a good eye at the plate, all traits the Yankees love. He's hit .363/.422/.468 on the year, with 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts and 23 BB+HBP to 10 strikeouts over 46 games and 190 AB.

The question mark with him is the power, as he has only one home run this year, the first of his college career. However, there are scouts who believe that if Newman makes some small changes to his batting stance, he can unlock more power. There is a great, detailed piece on this here. The Yankees did the same thing with a recent draft pick out of Arizona - one Robert Refsnyder - and that's turned out well so far.

Another thing that is a plus from the Yankees perspective is how well Newman has hit in the wood bat Cape Cod League, where he became the first player to win consecutive batting titles, with a combined .377 BA and .475 OBP, as well as a 1.0 BB/K ratio. He could be seen as a fast-moving backup plan to Didi Gregorius, one that can be the big league bridge to the bumper crop of shortstops the Yankees have in the low minors.

The final potential target for the Yankees at pick #16 is a prep bat, second baseman Cornelius Randolph from Griffin HS in Georgia. The Clemson commit fits with the Yankees love of prep bats, and the fact that they rank 7th most likely to draft a second baseman in the league. Some scouts think he could slide over the third base, given his above-average arm - perfect, since the Yankees are second only to the Reds in their love of drafting third basemen. Plus, Randolph has a solid 60 grade name. Always important here at Pinstripe Alley.

Randolph has an above average hit tool, and one of the best left-handed power bats in the high school rankings this year. The fact that this comes from the left side, and he is likely a second baseman, has some comparing him to Robinson Cano. Hmmm....that name sounds familiar. Reports point to his ability to hang in against left-handed breaking balls, a good sign that he shouldn't be a platoon bat. And he's a smart dude, always a plus. Given Gosuke Katoh's struggles, and the eventual promotion of Refsnyder, Randolph could become the best second baseman in the system by the end of 2015.

Of these three, I rank them Randolph, Hooper, and Newman, in that order. Let me know below who of those three you would take.

Let's move on to the second first round pick, and see who could be available there. Again, we will focus on prep arms and bats, and college bats.

Pick 30:

Name POS LVL HS State College/Commitment
Donny Everett RHP HS Clarksville TN Vanderbilt
D.J. Stewart LF COL
FL Florida State
Beau Burrows RHP HS Weatherford TX Texas A&M
Dakota Chalmers RHP HS North Forsyth GA Georgia
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B HS Concordia Lutheran TX Tennessee
Richie Martin SS COL
FL Florida
Eric Jenkins CF HS West Columbus NC UNC-Wilmington
Austin Smith RHP HS Park Vista FL Florida Atlantic
Juan Hillman LHP HS Olympia FL UCF
Jalen Miller SS HS Riverwood GA Clemson
Mitchell Hansen LF HS Plano TX Stanford
Triston McKenzie RHP HS Royal Palm Beach FL Vanderbilt
Demi Orimoloye OF HS St. Matthew CAN Oregon

There's plenty of options here, but I'm going to focus on three: D.J. Stewart, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Juan Hillman.

D.J. Stewart may be familiar to some Yankees fans, especially those who follow the draft. The Yankees selected him out of high school in 28th round of the 2012 Amateur Draft. He decided to go to Florida State instead, and has done nothing but pound the ball since his arrival. He's hit .352/.489/.576 over his college career, including a .337/.530/.620 line this year. He's always had a good eye, and it's gone up a notch in 2015, with a 59/37 BB/K ratio.

D.J. is a big power bat with a great feel for the strike zone. He's a short, stocky guy, but that hides surprising athleticism. He's limited to LF or 1B, but power bats like his are becoming even more valuable in the lower offensive environment of the current game. It is possible, even likely, that he will be gone by pick #30 because he is the best college power bat in this year's draft. Because of that, the Yankees could look at him at pick #16 as well.

A second option at pick #30 is Ke'Bryan Hayes, a high school third baseman from Texas. Hayes is the son of former Yankee Charlie Hayes, and the Yankees have shown in the past that they will draft players with familial connections to the organization. And getting tutored by your big league father your entire life certainly can't hurt.

Hayes is a smooth fielder at the hot corner, and should be a plus defender. He has an above-average hit tool as well, thanks to a sweet swing from the right side that results in hard hit line drives. He is touted as having a high baseball IQ, which is always a plus. And if hitting fails for some reason, he has some potential off the mound, hitting 90 in showcases. Given the Yankees love of prep bats and third basemen, and the connection through a father who caught the final out of the 1996 World Series, he could be a top target for the Yankees at pick #30.

Oh, and if that hasn't made you a Hayes fan, maybe this will:

I want to play professional baseball as long as I can, because I love it. I want to be able to be a person that is remembered because he played the game the right way and hard, like Derek Jeter did.

The final possible target for pick #30 is Juan Hillman, a lefty prep arm from Olympia HS in Florida. Hillman is a lanky 6'2", with the ability to add some strength to his frame. As it is now, the athletic lefty can touch 93 and sits in the low-90s with his fastball. It plays up though, thanks to a delivery that helps hide the ball from the batter. His curveball flashes plus, and his changeup is already a solid offering. Standing on the mound, he may be one of the smartest high school pitchers this year, showing the ability to attack hitters and keep them off-balance.

Like Hayes, Hillman has a connection to the Yankees. His godfather, and legal guardian, is none other than Tom "Flash" Gordon. He has been friends with the Gordon kids for quite a while, and decided to move in with Gordon his sophomore year of high school. Gordon has been tutoring him for years, helping him add velocity through changes in his mechanics, and teaching him pitches, like his new split-change. He checks a lot of boxes for the Yankees - a young, projectable lefty with good pitchability and ties to the organization. He is a very good target for pick #30.

At pick #30, my personal preference is Stewart, followed by Hillman then Hayes.

Below, I have given you the six options that don't repeat a specific type of player. Vote for which pair you would most like to see drafted by the Yankees. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments section, and please share your thoughts as well!

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Pinstripe Alley writing staff or SB Nation.